NFL Week 4 Betting Preview

A NFL pick against the spread is like a child. You could relay on a professional babysitter to raise it, you could also try and raise a child without any experience in hopes of being as good as the babysitter, or you could just watch some reality television to learn how to raise your first baby boy or girl. To compare this to betting, you could listen to me, and know you will make money. I am like the professional babysitter, you may not want to rely on me too much, but in the end, you know that I know what I am doing. If you are trying to start betting for the first time, there will be some guaranteed bumps in the road, similar to raising a first-born child. However, if you raise all your children, by the time you hit number 4, you will be as good as the professional babysitter. If you just watch some highlights, and make your picks based off them, you would be the equivalent of learning how to raise a child from reality television. You only see the highlights and low lights, you don’t see that the Cardinals should have had 175 rushing yards rather than 130, because of 2 huge negative broken down plays, or that Kevin Kolb had 150 of his 300 yards passing off of screens. Highlights can’t show you every key play; they can only show you the OMG moments. I know when I have my first child; I will be hiring an extremely qualified babysitter to watch him.

Browns @  Ravens -12 : The sexy pick here is to take the Browns. It is always great to come into work after calling an upset. However, the sexy pick is almost never the right pick. The Ravens have won 13 in a row at home dating back to last year. The Browns on the other hand have yet to win a division game on the road in 11 straight. To make it worse, Cleveland is missing their top WR in Mohamed Massaquoi. The Ravens also are playing tremendous offence in comparison to there past few years. They have scored 44 and 31 points in their two previous home games. They have also played 3 top AFC teams so far in the Eagles, Patriots, and Bengles. They are going from facing Brady and Vick to Brandon Weeden. This one could be ugly. A small concern for the Ravens is they have given up 290 yards average per game through the first 3 weeks. But, I will point out that was against 3 top 10 pass offences this year. The Browns have played some close ball games this year, but have yet to play on a weekday this year, and have a short week to prepare for one of the best defenses in the league.  4 UNITS ON BALT -12

Chargers @ Chiefs +1: Two of the best Ds in the league square off as the Chargers visit the Chiefs. The Chargers have had the luxury of playing 3 teams (Falcons, Titans and Raiders.) These 3 teams are all lower than 25^th in the NFL in total rushing yards. Now they head to one of the hardest places to play, Arrowhead stadium, and face the number one ranked rushing attack in the NFL. Jamaal Charles is also coming off a monstrous performance of 233 rushing yards. It seams he is finally starting to trust his legs after his ACL tear from last year.  The Chargers just saw 3 straight change ups, and the chiefs are the 100 mph fastball. It will be almost impossible for the Chargers to adjust, especially after being blown out at home 27-3 against the Falcons.  The Chargers are known for their struggles kicking off the season, and I think the trend will continue. 2 UNITS ON CHIEFS +1

Patriots @ Bills +4: I like the Pats this week, I think that the public is underestimating the importance of CJ Spiller, and with Fred Jackson just returning from a sprained knee, the Bills will hardly have a run game. That could present a large problem for a Bills team who is currently heavily favoring the run. The Bills are currently 26^th in the NFL is passing yards, therefore if the Pats get a lead,  the Bills will have a hard to catching up with their lack of passing firepower. I think the stat that is currently most telling about the Bills, is they are 19^th in the NFL in OPP. Passing yards. That may not sound bad, however the Bills have faced Mark Sanchez, Matt Cassel, and Brandon Weeden, probably the worst group of QB that any team has faced thus far. I also love the Pats, because of the simple fact that this is a must win game. Tom Brady and Bill Belichick have always just seemed to have an uncanny ability to win games with their backs against the wall. They respond well to adversity, and I think Bill’s 50K fine this week will only motivate them more. The Pats should take this one easily. 3 UNITS ON THE PATS -4

Dolphins @ Cardinals -6: This is purely a public-based line. There is no way that the Cardinals should be 6-point favorites against the Dolphins.  I understand that the Cardinals are a solid team, but they are still 27^th in passing yards and 29^th in rushing yards. In a low scoring defensive battle, 6 points is way too much to give a solid team. The Dolphins live and die on the ground, and it looks like Reggie Bush will play, meaning the Dolphins should also own the time of possession due to there running mentality. Especially with the Cardinals missing Beanie Wells, I can’t see them scoring more that 13 points against a very good Dolphins team. So the question becomes can the Cardinals hold the Dolphins just to 6 points? I think that is an easy no, too much ground and pound. DOLPHINS +6 FOR 3 UNITS.

Saints @ Packers -9: I could rehash everything I said in my BOLD PREDICTION article, so you can check that out here, http://mensgs.blogspot.com/2012/09/fantasy-football-week-4-5-bold.html, but basically the Saints have not been able to stop the QB’s from the Lingerie football league. Yet alone the CFL. Yet alone the NFL. This is a trap line, a line that looks like it is just easy money, but it really isn’t. The Saints are a popular team, but they have always struggled away from Domes’ and have been just awful this year. Don’t fall for the trap. PACKERS-9 FOR 3 UNITS.