Current Record

RECORD: UP 33 UNITS and overall record of (67-53) 55.8%

NFL

NFL week 8 Picks

Jaguars vs. Green Bay: Jags +16 for 3 Units (jordy's out)

Eagles vs. Falcons: Falcons +3 for 1 Unit

Titans vs. Colts: Titans -3.5 for 1 Unit

Chargers vs. Browns: Chargers -3 for 7 Units

Patriots vs. Rams: Patriots -7.5 for 2 Units

Seahawks vs. Lions: Lions -2.5 for 1 Unit

Dolphins vs. Jets: Dolphins +1 for 0.5 Units

Bears vs. Panthers: Chicago -8.5 for 2 Units

Steelers vs. Redskins: Steelers -4 for 1 Unit

Oakland vs. Chiefs: Raiders +1 for 2 Units

Giants vs. Cowboys: Giants -1.5 for 2 Units

Saints vs. Broncos: Saints +6.5 for 3 Units

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MNF Bears vs. Lions Week 7 Pick

The Bears are home against the Lions tonight, and with the Soldier Field fans, and a struggling Matt Stafford to along with it, they should have the big advantage in this match-up. The Bears love to play on Monday Night Football on a big stage, evident of their 34-18 drubbing of the Cowboys in which the Bears defense had 5 interceptions and 2 TD's. The Cowboys and the Lions offenses are similar, and Detroit's sub-par running game along with the fact that Chicago's defense is 1st in rush defense, is going to force them to air it out against a Bears defense that leads the league with 13 interceptions including a couple pick 6's as well. Night games in the Windy City are not ideal conditions to air it out, and the Lions should struggle immensely. This is a Lion's defense that gave up 41 points to an average Tennessee Titan offense, so look for the Bears to jump out early in this game and use Matt Forte and Michael Bush to keep a stronghold on their lead. The Pick: Bears -6.5 for 3 Units.

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 NFL Week 7 Picks

Titans (+3.5) vs. Bills (-3.5):  These two teams are very equal to each other. The Titans rank dead last in rushing, however explosive running back Chris Johnson will likely change that against a weak Bills defense that ranks 32nd. When there are two struggling defenses going up against each other, you have to take the points, so we'll go with the Titans. The real pick here is the over seeing that both teams can't stop the run, and that two of the most explosive backs in the league will be suiting up for this game. The O/U is 40.5. 5/6 Titans games this season have gone over that amount, and similarly 4/6 of the Bills have as well.  The Pick: Titans +3.5 for 1 Unit; Over 40.5 for 3 units

Cardinals (+6.5) vs. Vikings (-6.5):  The Vikings have averaged 22.6 points a game this year, and against a pretty good Cardinals defense, they might have trouble getting even that. In any case, this offense doesn't score enough to warrant the 6.5 point cover, which means the Cardinals would only have to score 16 points to cover the spread. They have accomplished this all but once this season, so we'll take Arizona.   The Pick: Cardinals (+6.5) for 2 Units

Cleveland Browns (+1) vs. Indianapolis Colts (-1): Whenever the line is 1, you have to treat it as a pick'em, and so long as Brandon Weeden is the quarterback for the Browns, pick'em and Browns shouldn't be mentioned in the same sentence. The Colts rank 3rd in pass defense, and going up against the terrible Brandon Weeden should help. Meanwhile, Andrew Luck will probably erase any lingering nostalgia of Peyton Manning for Colt's fans, as he should have a monster game picking apart this weak Browns secondary that ranks 30th in pass defense.  The Pick: Colts -1 for 3 Units

Ravens (+7) vs. Texans (-7): Houston will come out looking to prove that they're still the best, but that extra motivation shouldn't be enough to give them a 7 point advantage in tomorrow's game. The Ravens offense is used to playing against tough defenses like the Steelers, and they should be ready for the challenge. The Texans have only won by more than 7 in 3 of their 6 games, and against the Ravens, their chances of making it 4/7 are even slimmer.  The Pick: Ravens +7 for 2 Units

Packers (-5) vs. Rams +5:  Green Bay still trails Minnesota and Chicago in the NFC North, so they will be extra motivated to win this one. If Rodgers can torch an elite Texans' defense, he can surely torch the Rams defense. If this one gets ugly quickly, it could be a long day for the Rams, as they rank 26th in passing.    The Pick: Green Bay -5 for 3 Units

Cowboys -1 vs. Panthers +1:  Despite all their woes this season, the Dallas Cowboys still have too much talent to pick against in this game. They rank 6th in passing yards and 2nd in Pass defense. They should be able to win against a Panthers team that ranks outside the top-15 in every major category excluding rushing, in which they rank 13th.   The Pick: Cowboys -1 for 3 Units

Redskins (+6) vs. Giants (-6): The Giants are coming off a huge win against San Francisco, so look for them to potentially have a minor let down in this one. Eli should be able to torch the 'Skins secondary, but the a motivated Redskins offense is too talented to give 6 points. The Pick: Redskins +6 for 0.5 Units

Saints -1 vs. Tampa Bay +1: We expect this one to be high-scoring, seeing that the Saints rank dead last in rushing defense, and that the Bucs fare no better in pass defense, ranking 31st. If this game is indeed a high scoring affair, the Saints and Drew Brees will have the edge.  The Pick: Saints -1 for 1 Unit. Over 49 for 3 Units

Jets +10.5 vs. Patriots -10.5: This is going to be a ticked off Pats team that is coming off a 1 point loss to the Seahawks. This doesn't bode well for "Sachize" and the Jets, however you have to be cognizant that the 10.5 spread is extremely high for NFL games.  The Pick: Patriots -10.5 for 0.5 Units

Jaguars (+6) vs. Raiders (-6): The Jaguars rank in the bottom-10 in every major category on both the offensive and defensive side of the ball. Meanwhile, the Raiders have been playing well of late, and Carson Palmer has looked sharp thus far. With Darius Heyward-Bey and Denarius Moore at his disposal, look for him to air it out against a Jags defense that ranks 23rd in pass defense.  The Pick: Raiders -6 for 2 Units.

Bengals (+1) vs. Steelers (-1): The Steelers have been inconsistent thus far this season, however they still resemble the team that won the Super Bowl a couple years ago. They rank 7th in pass yards, and their defense is still elite, ranking 4th in opposing pass yards, and 9th in opposing rushing yards. Look for them to force a couple of turn-overs from the inexperienced Bengals QB, Andy Dalton. The Pick: Steelers -1 for 3 Units

 

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TNF: Seattle @ 49ers Pick/Preview


Seattle is the pick here; I think the 49ers are overrated. Seattle is undefeated this year as underdogs, and they have covered the 9.5 spread in every single game this year. Meanwhile, the 49ers have only played 1 game on Thursday night football in their past 2 seasons, in which they lost by 10. Seattle won on Monday night at home against GB. They also won on Thursday Night last year, blowing out the Eagles at home, as well as winning on Monday Night @ STL. I think the most telling stat in this one is the Seahawks are 31st in passing, and 49ers are 26th in passing. The Seahawks are #2 rush D, against the 49ers #1 rush O. This game will be won or lost with the run with both sides, and I think that favors the team getting 9.5 points all day. Their stats and records appear to be mere images of each other, and that is why I can't understand why home field is worth 9.5 points. Seattle is the play here, public is right at 55%. Seattle +9.5 for 3 Units. 

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MNF Charger vs. Broncos Preview/Pick

The San Diego Chargers (3-2) take on the Denver Broncos (2-3) tonight. The Chargers have been mediocre thus far this season, however finally having star running back, Ryan Mathews back and at full health, should benefit them greatly. The Chargers game-plan is likely going to be to pound it on the ground against an average rush defense, rather than take their chances downfield against the likes of Champ Bailey. However, this won't stop Phillip Rivers, the Chargers quarterback from throwing in an occasional deep bomb and testing Broncos CB Chris Harris, who's filling in for injured star cornerback Tracy Porter. Look for the Chargers to take advantage of this with their depth at the receiver position. Meanwhile, aside from probable struggling on the defensive side of the ball, it looks like Peyton Manning will have to win it by himself for the Broncos tonight, as not only are the Broncos averaging a pedestrian-like 101 rushing yards a game, but they also are going to face a stifling Charger's defense that allows only 74 rushing yards a game, which is good for 3rd in the league. Another major factor about this game, is that it will be in San Diego, where not only will the Chargers have the home crowd, but they will also enjoy the warm 77 degrees forecast for tonight's game, as they are used to playing in this climate. We see it being a close game, but San Diego -1 is the pick here.  The Pick: San Diego -1 for 3 Units

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 Packers @ Texans SNF Preview/Pick

I love the Pack in this. The Texans have played no one this season. No team they have played has a record over .500 at this moment. The Packers meanwhile, have covered the spread 3.5 in every single one of their games this season. The Pack got caught looking ahead last week, although it was poor discipline, it should be ignored. The Pack clearly played as the superior team, and that is all a sports better should look at. This a flat out trap, the Packers didn't lose their talent over night, and the Texans are being over documented. They are in fact worse than last year, and just a beneficiary of an easy schedule. The Pick: Packers +3.5 for 3 Units

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 NFL Week 6 Picks

Patriots (-3.5) vs. Seahawks

This is a Patriots team that could perhaps be more dangerous than ever. They found their true running backs in Stevan Ridley and Brandon Bolden, and Tom Brady is the same MVP caliber quarterback that he was 7 months ago. Seattle's strength is running the ball with Marshawn Lynch, however the Patriots defense has surprised everyone with their ability to stop the run, as they currently rank 8th in rushing defense, against a schedule that included Ray Rice, CJ Spiller, and Chris Johnson. If the Seahawks can't run on the Pats, they will struggle even more through the air. They rank 31st in passing offense, and if they fall behind a score, it's likely that they won't be able to ever get back. The Pick: Patriots -3.5 for 3 Units

 Cardinals -5 vs. Bills +5

5 points is an awful lot for a team that ranks a horrendous 25th in passing offense and 31st in rushing. Buffalo themselves are not a very good football team, but atleast they can run the ball, as they rank 5th in rushing. Meanwhile, the Cardinals "spectacular" defense is average according to the statistics, as they rank 18th in pass defense and 14th in rushing defense. The Cardinals should win this one at home, but 5 points is way too much.  Bills +5 for 1 Unit

 Vikings -1.5 vs. Redskins

Vikings are the better team, but the Skins are at home. This one is truly a tossup, especially with RGIII performance being completely unpredictable a week after suffering a concussion. Stay Away

San Francisco (-7) vs. Giants (+7)

No, this line isn't as off as you may think. I would say something closer to -5 for the Niners, but in reality, this game is not far from a pick'em. This a big stage for the Giants, and Eli loves the big stages. San Francisco's defense is an elite one, but shutting down an offense that will finally have its  players healthy, with Nicks, Barden, and Bradshaw slated to play, is asking too much of this defense. The Giants rank 3rd in their aerial attack that didn't include Hakeem Nicks for a large part of the season, so look for them to test the Niners secondary. If Eli can keep the turnovers down, the Giants should cover.  The Pick: Giants +7 for 3 U

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Thursday Night Football Pick: Steelers vs. Titans

Above: Titans RB Chris Johnson has yet to find the End Zone this season.
Tennessee is +6 in this matchup, and being cognizant that this is an NFL game, I still think this line is overrating the Titans ability to move the ball and play defense. The Titans have only scored more than 14 points once so far this season, and the future doesn't look any brighter against a dominant Steelers' defense that has been a model for NFL defense's for the past decade. The Titans only "strength" is running the ball, as they have  star Chris Johnson, but unless you've been on vacation for the past 6 weeks, you would know that this is not the case, as the Titans currently rank 30th in rushing. On top of their atrocious offense, the Titans are also one of the league's worst defenses, giving up more than 30 points every game this season, and ranking in the bottom 10 in every major defensive category. The chances that they keep this game close are slim.   The Pick: Steelers -6 for 4 Units

 

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NFL True QB Value Guide

I am going to try and tackle the hardest question in human history. No, not the afterlife, not 7 Wonders of the World, not even the universe. I am going to try and decide how good a player or team really is. Madden tries, but in my opinion they do a terrible job. For example, they say Wes Welker is quicker than Calvin Johnson, and better than Roddy White. Tim Tebow also has 87 throw power and 80 deep throw accuracy. Which clearly explains why the ball bounces so high off the turf after a pass.....I mean a incompletion (same difference) I feel that this is a microcosm of some of Madden's ratings. So the question is, how can we determine how good a player is? Do we use most recent stats? If so, we would have Brian Hartline being the best WR in the league. If we go by career stats, then we would have Randy Moss as the best signing of the off-season. Should we go by past 5 year total yards? Then the best WR would be Roddy White, who according to Matt Ryan, is only the second best WR on his own team right now. We could use ESPN's "genius" Scouts inc. that has Peyton Manning as the 16th best player in the NFL, compared to best tackle, Jake Long at #20. I am going to go position by position, and give my formula to trying to solve the impossible value conundrum.

QB VALUE= Wins in past 2 seasons multiplied by 2 + total pass attempts divided by games played + Total yards divided by games played - INT multiplied by 10 + TD multiplied by 5 + QBR (Quarterback Rating) combined from past 2 years.

 Formula = W X 10 +Attempts  / #Games Played + Yards / #Games Played X 2 - INT X 10 + TD X 5 + QBR= Value

 Example: Aaron Rodgers= 24 X 10 +  977/30 + 9,178/60 - 170+ 400 + 224= 879.533333

The List of top 20: 

 1.Tom Brady- 898.803125
2.Aaron Rodgers- 879.5333
3.Drew Brees- 685.34375
4.Tony Romo (used 2011 and 2009, due to injuries in 2010)- 654.021875
5. Ben Roethlisberger- 630.766667

 To be Continued........

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  Texans Beat Jets 23-17; Improve to 5-0

Pictured Above: Mark Sanchez is completing 49.2% of his passes
                                                                                                                                                                                                                         The Jets kept it close throughout the game, but it wasn't enough, as Matt Schaub and the Texans came out with the 23-17 victory. Arian Foster carried the weight of the Texans on his shoulders, and rushed for 152 yards and a touchdown; but it was mostly the Jets play and especially Mark Sanchez's that cost them the game, and perhaps him his job. Sanchez was a horrid 14-31 to go along with only 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions. As expected, Jets fans were booing, and were eager to see the "gamer" Tim Tebow come in to the game. After Sanchez's string of sub-par performances, it seems that they might just get their wish next week, when they host the Indianapolis Colts.   

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Monday Night Preview/Betting Prediction

Well tonight the Jets go up against the undefeated Texans who many think are the best team in the league.  As an all around team, there is no one that can match up with them on either side of the ball.  An electrifying offense around with the most talented back in the league in Arian Foster, and not to mention a guy that would be a pro bowler on any other team as his back up in Ben Tate.  On top of that, they have a very underrated quarterback in Matt Schaub and a top flight receiver in Andre Johnson. On the other side of the ball, their premier defense is anchored by J.J Watt who looks to be the NFC defensive player of the year this year, and he certainly would get my vote so far.  On the flip the Jets have... well... they're the Jets.  Their best receiver is Santonio Holmes which says something and he's already out for the year so Mark Sanchez will probably be targeting the ground even more tonight. Darelle Revis is out for the year so Andre Johnson should have a big game.  Plain and simple, if Foster, Schaub, Andre Johnson, and J.J Watt got AIDS before tonight's game, I'd still take the Texans. There won't be any upset going here tonight unless we see Tebow pull some crazy comeback if he ends up playing. Texans win big by at least 3 possessions should be done by the third quarter.    The Pick: Texans -9 for 2 Units

 

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 NFL Week 5 Sunday Recap   NFL Week 5 Sunday Recap



Miami @ Cincinatti

The Dolphins were phenomenal today in a huge win against the explosive Bengals offense.  This Dolphins team has really proven they are for real.  On the other side of the ball, Dalton struggles completing on 26-43 passes and throwing 2 interceptions.

Fantasy impact players: A.J Green continued his hot start today with 65 yards and a score. This is a great sign for fantasy owner because on a day where the offense only went for 13 points, he still came through.

Green Bay @ Indianapolis

The Colts completed miraculous comeback Sunday after trailing 21-3 in the second quarter.  This was a very emotional win as Colts coach, Chuck Pagano was diagnosed with Leukemia earlier this week.  Andrew Luck clearly proved the number 1 pick worth on this day after struggling early to carry the team to this comeback against what many think is the best team in the NFL.  A side note being the Packers starting the year 2-3 after being undefeated for much of last year.

Fantasy Impact players: Andrew Luck was big today for fantasy owners with over 300 yards and 2 TDs
Reggie Wayne was simply amazing pulling off a career high 212 yards on 13 catches and a touchdown. After a rough season last year, Reggie Wayne looks even better than he did with Peyton Manning throwing the ball to him.
Aaron Rodgers also had a nice with 243 yards and 3 TDs, this is the second straight week Rodgers has played well after a rough start to the season.
James Jones scored twice again today giving him 4 TDs in last two weeks.

Baltimore @ Kansas City


A very ugly game played by both teams as neither team could even find the end zone.  It was a defensive battle throughout and more often than not the Ravens defense are going to pull through in those games, as they did today.

Fantasy Impact players: Jamaal Charles had 140 on an elite Baltimore Defense and this caps his third straight fantastic week for fantasy owners. Unfortunately, he wasn't able to find the end zone in this game to make his performance even better.

Cleveland @ New York


After trailing 14-0 early, the Giants did what they do best, and scored 41 points to finish the game. It seems like each week a new Giants receiver storms into the picture. First it was Ramses Barden, then it was Domenik Hixon, and today it was Rueben Randle. Although only 3-2, this Giants team is definitely one of the best teams in the league all around.

Fantasy Impact players: Victor Cruz was more worn out from doing salsa dances than he was from playing football as he scored 3 times today.
Josh Gordon came out of no where today with 82 yards on 2 touchdowns, however I wouldn't recommend using him as he only caught 2 passes on the day.

Philadelphia @ Pittsburgh


A slow start to this game that came to a very exciting finish.  The Steelers had 3 major starters and they helped out a lot in this one as they came to win 16-14 on a game winning field goal.

Fantasy Impact players: Rashard Mendenhall came back from injury today and looked fantastic with 81 yards and a TD on only 14 carries.
LeSean Mccoy, after struggling in the early part of the season came through today with 51 yards rushing to go with 27 receiving and a score.

Atlanta @ Washington


This is the second straight week the undefeated Falcons have been faced with a big scare.  RGIII went down with an injury in the second half and backup Kirk Cousins wasn't able to get it done as he threw two picks.
Fantasy Impact players: Tony Gonzalez went absolutely crazy today with 123 yards on 13 catches and a touchdown as he continues one of the best seasons in his hall of fame career.
Julio Jones was fantastic today after struggling last week as he caught 10 balls for 94 yards and a score.
Alfred Morris continued his success this year following his blockers for over 100 yards for the second straight week.

Seattle @ Carolina

A prototypical Seattle Seahawks win. Ugly but effective as the defense was fantastic in shutting down Cam Newton.
Fantasy Impact players: NONE

Chicago @ Jacksonville

After a slow start from Chicago they put up 38 points in the second half, the defense came through for the 3rd straight week holding the Jaguars to only 3 points.
Fantasy Impact players: Brandon Marshall had his second straight huge week today with144 yards on 12 catches and a TD
Bears D; Wow is all I have to say. After getting screwed over in my fantasy league last week by this D, this team had 2 defensive touchdowns again.

Tennessee @ Minnesota

This Vikings team is legit, and on both sides of the football, they have been a huge threat to the entire league. They gave up only 7 points and scored 30 helping them to 4-1 and tie the Bears for the NFC north lead.
Fantasy Impact players: Percy Harvin was phenomenal out there today with 108 yards and a score, also adding 8 yards rushing with another touchdown.

Denver @ New England

A classic rivalry as Tom Brady went head to head with Peyton Manning. The Patriots offense was just too much to handle for Denver as they scored 31 points leading to a 10 point victory.
Fantasy Impact players: Wes Welker had 104 yards on 13 catches and a touchdown coming up big
Steven Ridley continued his fantastic season with over 150 yards on the ground and a score
Peyton Manning, despite losing the game had a big one for fantasy owners including myself with 300+ yards and 3 TDs.

Buffalo @ San Francisco

Well for the 3rd time this year the Buffalo defense has given up 45+ points, there secondary looks like 7th graders in P.E class. If Mark Sanchez is torching you, there's a major problem.
Fantasy Impact players: Alex Smith was big with 300 yards and 3 TDs
Michael Crabtree came up big today with 113 yards and a touchdown continuing his best season in his young career.
Frank Gore also had a big day with over 100 yards and a score.

San Diego @ New Orleans

A huge game for Drew Brees for multiple reasons as aside from getting his first win of the season, he broke the record for most consecutive games with a touchdown breaking the legendary Johnny Unitas's record. Not to mention, the Saints also avoided there first 0-5 start since 1996.
Fantasy Impact players: Marques Colston was fantastic for the second straight week with 131 yards on 9 catches and 3 Touchdowns, time to sell high on this guy, you can get so much from him right now it's only smart to do this now while you can.
Drew Brees: Not only did he break a major record but he also scored 4 touchdowns for the second straight week as this Saints offense is starting to get it together, watch out for them to make a late push for the playoffs this season
Ryan Mathews looked fantastic after coming off an injury, with 80 yards rushing and a score, this is a great sign for fantasy owners that took him in the first round.

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NFL Picks/Betting Preview Week 5

Sorry about the late post, we will post our picks earlier next time. We feel that they're are some really nice lines this week in the NFL, so we will try to be selective, and take advantage of them. To ensure a profit (atleast a high chance of won), we will bet more units on these games we feel we can take advantage of, and bet very small on the games that we feel have less attractive lines. First we will start off with the big ones, and then after, briefly give you our picks for the lesser ones.

Chicago Bears (-5.5) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (+5.5)

I find this line disrespectful to the Bears after last weeks performance against the Cowboys. If Tony Romo threw 5 interceptions against this defense, how many will Blaine Gabbert throw? Also, the warm weather in Jacksonville will be beneficiary for Cutler, and allow the Bears offense to get in a groove, just like they did last week in the dome. Other than Maurice Jones-Drew, the Jaguars offense doesn't really have many weapons that can hurt the Bears. The Bears explosive defense will shutdown MJD, Gabbert, and company, while Jay Cutler and the offense will do their part by blowing this game open. The Jaguars are 31st in passing offense, and 30th in total defense. It's going to be a long day for Jags fans. The Pick: Bears -5.5 for 4 Units.


Atlanta Falcons (-3) vs. Washington Redskins (+3)

Really...I might regret saying this later, but in reality, this is a matchup between an unexperienced rookie-led team and an experienced, Super Bowl caliber Atlanta Falcons team. Matt Ryan has been an elite quarterback this year, and is having field days throwing to a receiving core that includes Roddy White, Julio Jones, and Tony Gonzalez. Yes, the Redskins will put up some points. But will their 31st ranked defense that gives up 326 yards a game be able to keep up with the Falcons aerial attack? Eh..
The Pick: Falcons -3 for 3 units


Green Bay Packers (-7) vs. Indianapolis Colts (+7)

The Packers are not going to take this game lightly, as they know a .500 record isn't going to cut it in their tough NFC North division. The Colts are at the Packer's mercy in this game, as their conservative play-calling style with rookie Andrew Luck at the helm, won't be able to hang with possibly the best offense in the NFL, led by reigning MVP, Aaron Rodgers.  The Pick: Packers -7 for 4 units


Steelers (-3.5) vs. Eagles (+3.5) 

After seeing their division rivals, the Cowboys go down to the Bears last week, the Eagles know that they can really grab the stronghold on their division with a win over the ferocious Steelers. The Steelers are getting Rashard Mendenhall back for this game, and that should help a rushing attack that ranks 30th in the NFL, however he won't see a big workload, so the Steelers offense will continue to struggle. Meanwhile the Eagles have one of the top backs in the game in Lesean McCoy, and they'll use him to plug away at the Steelers defense, which will allow Michael Vick make big plays against the Steelers secondary. The Eagles are too explosive to give up points on this one. The Pick: Eagles +3.5 for 2 units. 


Saints (-3.5) vs. Chargers (+3.5)

The Chargers will be motivated as ever to win this game, as they know this game can effect playoff implications later on this year. Meanwhile, it's going to be tough for the Saints to get motivated for this one, as they're off to an 0-4 start. The Chargers are 3-1, with their only gaffe coming against the Falcons in week 3 where they got thrashed 27 to 3. Other than that, they have played solid football, and should continue to do so on Sunday. Ryan Mathews is fully recovered from a broken clavicle that sidelined him for the 1st two weeks, and is expected to see an increased workload. This is terrible news for a Saints defense that ranks DEAD LAST in defending the rush. If the Chargers get behind, Philip Rivers won't be afraid to air the ball out and get them within this +3.5 line.  The Pick: Chargers +3.5 for 4 UNITS


Giants (-9.5) vs. Browns (+9.5)  

The Browns are off to a 0-4 start, and don't rank higher than 20 in any major category. The Giants are coming off a loss to their division rivals Eagles, and won't be looking to toy around with the lousy Browns in this one. Brandon Weeden gets the award for worst quarterback in the NFL, and the Browns basically gave up on the season when they announced he would be their starter over Colt McCoy.     The Pick: Giants -9.5 for 3 Units.



OTHER PICKS:  (No Beneficiary Lines, so keep Bets Low (1-2 units))

Minnesota Vikings (-5.5) vs. Tennessee Titans (+5.5)    Minnesota's defense is too good for horrendous Titans offense.   The Pick: Minnesota (-5.5) for 1 Unit

Patriots (-6.5) vs. Broncos (+6.5)   Never bet against Peyton....Oh wait. Never bet against Brady. We don't know which Peyton will show up so....The Pick: Patriots -6.5 for 1 unit.

Bengals (-3) vs. Dolphins (+3)    Miami's defense has played well so far, however Cincinatti at home is too good for them. Dalton and the Bengals should cover the spread.   The Pick: Bengals -3 for 2 units

Ravens (-6.5) vs. Chiefs (+6.5)   Jamaal Charles is a beast, and the Chiefs are at home in Arrowhead.   The Pick: Chiefs +6.5 for 1 Unit.

Panthers (-2.5) vs. Seahawks (+2.5)   Big advantage for Carolina being at home, however Seattle's defense is too good.   The Pick: Seahawks +2.5 for 1 Unit.

49ers (-10) vs. Bills (+10)   The Bills will have a tough time running the ball against a San Francisco defense that ranks 3rd in rush defense. The defense will provide some turnovers, and the ground and pound of the 49ers should cover the spread of 10 at home.   The Pick: 49ers -10 for 1 Unit

 


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Well, last week I hit the nail right on the head on the refs, Mark Ingram, and Aaron Rodgers. But I also completely whiffed on Ramses Barden and Tim Tebow (although it was close). We head into week 5 with guns blazing, and some more bold picks.
Matt Ryan will throw for more than 400 yards and 5 TDs: Before this season, Matt Ryan was the stereotypical backup fantasy QB. He never put up great numbers because had a workhorse RB on his side who stole tons of TDs, limiting Ryan’s potential. If he is not on your team, you probably didn’t know he is leading the NFL in total fantasy points, and is leading the third most prolific points scoring offence in the NFL, only behind Pats and Texans. The Falcons head to Washington this week, to face the 31st ranked pass D in the NFL, and arguably the worst D in the NFL. Plus, with RG (yeah I didn’t put in a 3, watchya gonna do) and the Skins will certainly be throwing the ball to keep up with each other’s prolific offences. That means a ton of clock stoppages, and a ton of quick TDs. It wouldn’t surprise me if Ryan throws the ball 55 times.
Mark Sanchez will throw for less than 100 yards: Simple math, Sanchez throws for 103 yards against a top 5 D, now that the top D (Texans) come to town, that number will only go down. See, your 4th grade teacher was right, math is incredibly important. We just setup this equation for Sanchez’s pass yardage. Sanchez Yardage= Number of people who think he should be starting (1) + amount paid to go to USC (250,000) X number of Sanchez jerseys worn this Monday (0) plus season completion percentage (49.2) X number of times Mark has been caught with a dildo in his locker (2) =  99.4 Yards.
AP WILL HAVE MORE CARRIES THAN CHRIS JOHNSON HAS YARDS RUSHING: The Titans can’t stop the run. They have given up 136 yards a game to the Pats, Chargers (without Matthews), Detroit, and Houston. A solid group, but obviously some weak rushing teams there. Meanwhile the Vikings are only giving up 85 yards per game on the ground, 7th in the league. Since I predict AP will have 28 carries for 165 yards, that means CJ2K will need to rush for 28. Lets say he puts up 2.5 YPC that means he would need 12 carries to break the AP mark. I don’t see it happening.
The Eagles will allow a kickoff return TD: Considering the fact that the Giant's average return man, David Wilson, was a block away from a return TD 3 times last Sunday night. I think Chris Rainey will take one back, the Steelers have always had great special teams, and Rainey runs like Usain Bolt blazed (so slower but still pretty damn fast). But really, I think I could get to the 25 with the right blocking and kick, I am just not sure how my 130-pound frame would hold up to a 300 pound man trying to murder me. I really hope they put Mike Wallace back to return a few, he is honestly who I am banking on to return one.
Peyton Manning will get hurt this week: This is Peyton’s big test. His first real road game (Atlanta Dome doesn’t count) in freezing Foxborough.  It has always been hard for Peyton to handle playing in cold places, dating back to the start of his career. No disrespect to Falcon fans, but in huge NFL games Pats fans reek havoc. In an offence based of Peyton’s handle signals and shouting, 75,000+ screaming fans, and ice cold temperatures certainly won’t help. Nether will the inevitable hit on a freezing cold surface. He has yet to get hit hard yet, and I think it will happen a few times in this one, due to communication errors. 

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 Timely Penalty Costs Giants


9913753-large.jpgThe Philadelphia Eagles knocked off the New York Giants 19-17 at home Sunday Night. The game 

was a close one the whole way throughout, and both defenses came to play. On the final drive, Eli and the Giants had the ball at the 35 thanks to a great return by David Wilson. Down the field the Giants marched, like they have done so many times since they drafted Manning back in 2004. The Giants got the ball all the way down to the Eagles 27 yard line thanks to a lot of pass interference calls, and had a chance to win the game with a Lawrence Tynes' kick. With time still left on the clock, the Giants decided to take a shot deep down the sideline, and it ended up costing them the game. Ramses Barden was called for offensive Pass interference, and the Giants were backed up to the 37 yard line, leaving Lawrence Tynes to make a 54 yard field goal. Tynes' field goal was on the money, but left short, and instead of walking out with a victory, the Giants fell to 2-2 and potentially tied for last in perhaps the league's toughest division.



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Sunday Night Pick

Well, well, well. If you have been following us this week, we won 11 units on college football and lost 2 units in NFL football. (So far...) The record might not be too stunning, but keep in mind we did win a solid 9 units this weekend, which is 9 times more than an average bet made. As we head into the final pick for the weekend, we have a Sunday Night Football match up of Giants +2.5 @ Eagles. Little known fact, the Giants are 33-13 on the road over the last few years. They are 1 game over .500 at home during the same stretch. Be aware though, this is a solid line, the Giants may struggle moving the ball without their number 1 WR Hakeem Nicks, although they have Ramses Barden to step in, they still will miss one of the best WR in the league, regardless of how well Barden has been of late. The Giants are also missing a solid RT in David Diehl. However, I feel the thing that makes the Giants the favorite this week, is the fact that they have yet to play since September 20th, 10 days ago. Also the Eagles 2 wins this season have been by a total of 17-16 against the Browns, and 24-23 against the Ravens. I believe this makes the 2.5 points given worth taking for the Giants, rather than going with the money line play. There is no definitive perfect play in this game, but I feel I small bet on the Giants has a solid chance to be profitable. Giants +2.5 for 1 unit Under 46 1 unit. 

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NFL Week 4 Betting Preview

A NFL pick against the spread is like a child. You could relay on a professional babysitter to raise it, you could also try and raise a child without any experience in hopes of being as good as the babysitter, or you could just watch some reality television to learn how to raise your first baby boy or girl. To compare this to betting, you could listen to me, and know you will make money. I am like the professional babysitter, you may not want to rely on me too much, but in the end, you know that I know what I am doing. If you are trying to start betting for the first time, there will be some guaranteed bumps in the road, similar to raising a first-born child. However, if you raise all your children, by the time you hit number 4, you will be as good as the professional babysitter. If you just watch some highlights, and make your picks based off them, you would be the equivalent of learning how to raise a child from reality television. You only see the highlights and low lights, you don’t see that the Cardinals should have had 175 rushing yards rather than 130, because of 2 huge negative broken down plays, or that Kevin Kolb had 150 of his 300 yards passing off of screens. Highlights can’t show you every key play; they can only show you the OMG moments. I know when I have my first child; I will be hiring an extremely qualified babysitter to watch him.

 Browns @  Ravens -12 : The sexy pick here is to take the Browns. It is always great to come into work after calling an upset. However, the sexy pick is almost never the right pick. The Ravens have won 13 in a row at home dating back to last year. The Browns on the other hand have yet to win a division game on the road in 11 straight. To make it worse, Cleveland is missing their top WR in Mohamed Massaquoi. The Ravens also are playing tremendous offence in comparison to there past few years. They have scored 44 and 31 points in their two previous home games. They have also played 3 top AFC teams so far in the Eagles, Patriots, and Bengles. They are going from facing Brady and Vick to Brandon Weeden. This one could be ugly. A small concern for the Ravens is they have given up 290 yards average per game through the first 3 weeks. But, I will point out that was against 3 top 10 pass offences this year. The Browns have played some close ball games this year, but have yet to play on a weekday this year, and have a short week to prepare for one of the best defenses in the league.  4 UNITS ON BALT -12

Chargers @ Chiefs +1: Two of the best Ds in the league square off as the Chargers visit the Chiefs. The Chargers have had the luxury of playing 3 teams (Falcons, Titans and Raiders.) These 3 teams are all lower than 25th in the NFL in total rushing yards. Now they head to one of the hardest places to play, Arrowhead stadium, and face the number one ranked rushing attack in the NFL. Jamaal Charles is also coming off a monstrous performance of 233 rushing yards. It seams he is finally starting to trust his legs after his ACL tear from last year.  The Chargers just saw 3 straight change ups, and the chiefs are the 100 mph fastball. It will be almost impossible for the Chargers to adjust, especially after being blown out at home 27-3 against the Falcons.  The Chargers are known for their struggles kicking off the season, and I think the trend will continue. 2 UNITS ON CHIEFS +1

Patriots @ Bills +4: I like the Pats this week, I think that the public is underestimating the importance of CJ Spiller, and with Fred Jackson just returning from a sprained knee, the Bills will hardly have a run game. That could present a large problem for a Bills team who is currently heavily favoring the run. The Bills are currently 26th in the NFL is passing yards, therefore if the Pats get a lead,  the Bills will have a hard to catching up with their lack of passing firepower. I think the stat that is currently most telling about the Bills, is they are 19th in the NFL in OPP. Passing yards. That may not sound bad, however the Bills have faced Mark Sanchez, Matt Cassel, and Brandon Weeden, probably the worst group of QB that any team has faced thus far. I also love the Pats, because of the simple fact that this is a must win game. Tom Brady and Bill Belichick have always just seemed to have an uncanny ability to win games with their backs against the wall. They respond well to adversity, and I think Bill’s 50K fine this week will only motivate them more. The Pats should take this one easily. 3 UNITS ON THE PATS -4

 Dolphins @ Cardinals -6: This is purely a public-based line. There is no way that the Cardinals should be 6-point favorites against the Dolphins.  I understand that the Cardinals are a solid team, but they are still 27th in passing yards and 29th in rushing yards. In a low scoring defensive battle, 6 points is way too much to give a solid team. The Dolphins live and die on the ground, and it looks like Reggie Bush will play, meaning the Dolphins should also own the time of possession due to there running mentality. Especially with the Cardinals missing Beanie Wells, I can’t see them scoring more that 13 points against a very good Dolphins team. So the question becomes can the Cardinals hold the Dolphins just to 6 points? I think that is an easy no, too much ground and pound. DOLPHINS +6 FOR 3 UNITS.

Saints @ Packers -9: I could rehash everything I said in my BOLD PREDICTION article, so you can check that out here, http://mensgs.blogspot.com/2012/09/fantasy-football-week-4-5-bold.html, but basically the Saints have not been able to stop the QB’s from the Lingerie football league. Yet alone the CFL. Yet alone the NFL. This is a trap line, a line that looks like it is just easy money, but it really isn’t. The Saints are a popular team, but they have always struggled away from Domes’ and have been just awful this year. Don’t fall for the trap. PACKERS-9 FOR 3 UNITS. 

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Deal Reached; NFL Officials Back in Action

Breaking News: The NFL and and the referees' union have reached a tentative agreement at midnight on Thursday, ending the three month holdout. In a statement, NFL commissioner Roger Goodell said, "Our officials will be back on the field starting tomorrow night" (Cleveland vs. Baltimore)The two sides tentative 8 year deal must be ratified by a majority of the union's 121 member. The voting will be held on Friday. 



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Roger Goodell and the NFL has announced that they back up the controversial touchdown call made in the final minute of Monday Night's Packers vs. Seahawks game. This comes as no surprise, as the NFL has been quick to defend the new replacement referees. In reality, most fans believe that this was a blasphemous call that was made by unqualified referees, and they have plenty of reason to think so. It is also now known that the referee who made the controversial call has done most of his officiating in high school and junior college. Most believe that the public outcry and new emerging details over the asinine call would be enough for the NFL to pay for the regular referees to return, however this may not be the case. In fact, this may have only made the time-table for a deal to get done, longer. It's an amalgamation of the NFL and Roger Goodell's stubbornness and pride that will not allow this deal to get done. Many including ESPN's Skip Bayless believe that this will make the NFL less likely to reach a deal soon, because they don't want to seem "weak" by panicking too early. It can also be pointed out that this poor officiating has been attracting more viewers for the NFL and individual teams. This will make both the owners and the NFL more reluctant to sign a new deal with the referees.

          While the outlook may seem bleak, NFL fans shouldn't feel too down; They would much rather have this situation than no football at all. At the end of the day, it's still the players that decide the outcome.......or not.



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NFL Week 4 Picks 



Browns vs. Ravens: Don't second guess yourself here when reading this matchup...It's exactly what it sounds like. Ravens win. Arguably the Browns best defensive player, Joe Haden, is also out, serving a 4 game suspension. The Pick: Ravens



Patriots vs. Bills: People seem to forget that amidst all the turmoil surrounding the Pats this year, they are still the same team that went to the Super Bowl last year. With CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson both injured, the Bills will struggle to move the ball.  Tom Brady will bounce back and lead the perfectionists to a win on Sunday.   The Pick: Patriots



49ers vs. Jets: This matchup is an intriguing one. You've got similar teams going up against each other. This one will be a defensive battle, and the team who makes more big mistakes will lose. I prefer Alex Smith over Mark "Sanchize" (as Skip Bayless would say). The Niners already proved they can beat the best of them, and now their going to be eager to show that their loss to the lowly Vikings was a fluke.   The Pick: 49ers



Seahawks vs. Rams: Fresh off their "win," are the Seahawks, while the Rams have fallen to 1-2. The Rams can breathe a sigh of relief that they won't have to up to Seattle in one of the toughest stadiums in all of sports. However, they're still going to lose. The seahawks defense will get after Sam Bradford just like the Bears did last week. I got the Seahawks with confidence. Look for Lynch to post some big numbers.   The Pick: Seahawks



Panthers vs. Falcons: The Falcons have gotten off to a hot start, and have been playing Super Bowl worthy football. They just picked apart the very talented Chargers last week, and look for them to do the same to the the abysmal Panthers.Cam Newton no longer has the command over his teammates, and everyone is cognizant of this. Newton is what you call a fantasy QB...if he's winning you games you know your not an NFL GM and instead the other less prestigious, but equally as fun kind of GM. Look for Matt Ryan to attack the Panthers secondary early and often with Roddy White and Julio Jones at his disposal.     The Pick: Falcons



Lions vs. Vikings: With the extent of Matthew Staffords's injury unknown, this one is a tough one to predict. However, Shaun Hill (Calvin Johnson) > Christian Ponder. The Vikings won't pose much of a threat to the Lions defense, but if your playing fantasy football pickup Vikings kicker Blair Walsh. Expect a medium scoring game with lots of field goals. The Pick: Lions



Chargers vs. Chiefs: This is a game full of playmakers. Unfortunately for the Chiefs, almost all of them wear a Chargers uniform except for Jamaal Charles. Look for the Chargers offense to have an explosion in this one. It should be noted that the Chiefs have the most yards in the NFL this season, but this is mostly due to Jamaal Charles' performance last week. Unless Jamaal can beat his last week's performance, the Chargers got this one. The Pick: Chargers



Titans vs. Texans: The Texans are not to be messed with. This team is one of the most underrated teams in all of sports. They have a phenomenal defense that will get at Jake Locker all day long. Matt Schaub, Arian Foster, and Andre Johnson together make up one of the most balanced offenses in football. Look for the Texans offense to continue their hot streak. It would be blasphemous to go against the Texans in this one.   The Pick: Texans



Bengals vs. Jaguars: Blaine Gabbert has looked much better so far this season, however it's not enough to make me pull the trigger on this game. The Bengals offense is too good right now, and they will only be better going up against a 28th ranked Jaguars defense.  The Pick: Bengals



Raiders vs. Broncos: Both of these teams have started off the year quite sluggish and are looking to save their season. The Raiders are coming off an incredible come from behind win over the Steelers. I think that the Raiders are severely underrated, and have the pieces to challenge lots of teams better than them. The Broncos don't seem to have much going for them at the moment. Without a real running game, I see the dangerous Raiders pulling off the upset in a close one. Look for Carson Palmer to air it out frequently.    The Pick: Raiders


Cardinals vs. Dolphins: What the Cardinals have done to start off the season is truly inspirational. Just a month ago, we were all questioning whether they would win more than 4 games because of their QB situation. These players know that they're not the most talented team especially on the offensive ball, so look for them to play with trepidation and a sense of urgency. If the Cardinals offense can produce even the slightest amount, they will win this game. No way Tannehill and the Dolphins put up big numbers on this impressive Cardinals defense.     The Pick: Cardinals

Redskins vs. Buccaneers: This is another interesting matchup with two evenly matched teams. The edge here goes to Tampa Bay at home. The Skins have had a good year on the offensive side of the ball and are ranked 6th in total offense and 2nd in total rushing. However this is a Buccaneers defense that is pure speed. They will have the speed to contain RGIII, and therefore will limit his effectiveness. The same will be the case for Redskins running back Alfred Morris. Look for Tampa Bay to pound the ball on offense with Doug Martin, and take occasional chances with Josh Freeman's cannon. In the end, it'll be a rough day for RGIII and the Redskins.   The Pick: Tampa Bay

Packers vs. Saints: You can bet that Aaron Rodgers will have his troops fired up for this one. They are going to play with anger, and if your Drew Brees, it would not be fun to see an angry Clay Mathews. The Packers defense will give up some big plays in this game to Brees and company, however at the same time they will also have their fair share of big plays. Look for them to get pressure to Brees and force multiple sacks and some interceptions. The Packers offense currently ranks 28th and this is a problem, however when you have a future Hall of Fame quarterback in Aaron Rodgers, your problems are suddenly met with solutions. The Packers are going to have trepidations about losing this game, which will make them play with more energy and a bigger sense of urgency. The Pack will get the win here and regain their swagger.

The Pick: Packers

Giants vs. Eagles: The Cardinals exposed the Eagles for what they truly are last week. You can never really trust Michael Vick and the Eagles. The exact opposite is the case for the reigning Super Bowl champions New York Giants. Ahmad Bradshaw will be back for this game, and will provide an extra burst to a Giants running game that has hardly lost a beat without him. With Hakeem Nicks most likely out, look for Eli to spread the ball amongst all of his receivers, and carve up the Eagles secondary for first down after first down. In the end, the Giants will bring too much physicality to this matchup that will leave the Eagles 2-2 and with unanswered questions.  The Pick: Giants

Bears vs. Cowboys: Both of these teams know what's at stake in this game. They both have an opportunity to take the upper hand in their respective divisions with a win. The Bears defense is coming off a stellar performance and will look to continue this by getting pressure to Tony Romo, and force him to make bad decisions. On the offensive ball, the Bears have been struggling and going up against a Cowboys defense that ranks 1st overall so far, doesn't help. In addition, they could potentially be without star running back Matt Forte. However, this game will come down on Jay Cutler's shoulders. Cutler has been on and off so far this year, and is looking to gain some consistency.  The fact that the game will be held in a dome gives him a serious advantage over the Cowboys defense. He has perhaps the strongest arm in football, and won't be afraid to air it out to Brandon Marshall in these ideal conditions. If Cutler can beat the Dallas secondary just once, they should be able to win this game. This will be a battle of ball possession, and the team that makes fewer mistakes, and has more time of possession will win. Whenever these are the circumstances, you have to go against Tony Romo and "America's" Cowboys.

The Pick: Bears




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