Bets

MNF Pick

San Francisco -7 for 2 Units

 

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World Series Game 4 Pick

Tigers vs Giants: Tigers 4 Units to get 3 Units.....series still has potential to get interesting

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NFL week 8 Picks

Jaguars vs. Green Bay: Jags +16 for 3 Units (jordy's out)

Eagles vs. Falcons: Falcons +3 for 2 Units

Titans vs. Colts: Titans -3.5 for 1 Unit

Chargers vs. Browns: Chargers -3 for 7 Units

Patriots vs. Rams: Patriots -7.5 for 2 Units

Seahawks vs. Lions: Lions -2.5 for 1 Unit

Dolphins vs. Jets: Dolphins +1 for 0.5 Units

Bears vs. Panthers: Chicago -8.5 for 2 Units

Steelers vs. Redskins: Steelers -4 for 1 Unit

Oakland vs. Chiefs: Raiders +1 for 2 Units

Giants vs. Cowboys: Giants -1.5 for 2 Units

Saints vs. Broncos: Saints +6.5 for 3 Units

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NCAAF Week 9 Picks

We're going to do a pick'em style this week

Purdue vs. Minnesota U: The Pick: Purdue -2.5 for 3 Units

FSU vs. Duke: The Pick: Duke +27.5 for 1 Unit

MSU vs. Wisconsin: The Pick: MSU +5.5 for 3 Units

Florida vs. Georgia:  The Pick: Georgia +6.5 for 2 Units; Over 44.5 for 1 Unit

USC vs. Arizona: The Pick: USC -5.5 for 0.5 Units

Ohio St. vs. Penn St.: The Pick: Ohio St -1 for 3 Units

Texas Tech vs KSU: The Pick: Texas Tech +7 for 1 Unit

TCU vs. Oklahoma St.: TCU +7 for 1 Unit

Notre Dame vs. Oklahoma: Oklahoma -12.5 for 1 Unit

Michigan vs. Nebraska: This one is going to be a great game for all of you who don't have any interest in Notre Dame football.....however look elsewhere for a pick in this one....line is Nebraska -1, and the oddsmakers got it exactly right. True Coin toss

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SGS Betting Review As Of Tuesday (does not include anything past Tuesday 10/23)

MLB: Past Week: -10 Units; (0-4) 0%

MLB: Overall: +1.5 Units (14-14) 50%

NFL: Past Week: +14 Units (10-5) 66%

NFL: Overall: +27 Units (28-14) 66.7%

NCAAF: Past Week: -7 Units (4-7) 36.4%

NCAAF Overall: +2 Units (19-21) 47.5%

Soccer: Past Week: No Change

Soccer: Overall: +2.5 Units (3-2) 60%

Tennis: Past Week: No change
Tennis: Overall: -2.5 Units (0-1) 0%

UFC Past Week: No change
UFC Overall: -6.5 Units 

Past Week Total: -3 Units (14-16) 46.67%
Overall Total: +24 Units (64-52) 55.2%

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World Series Game 2 Pick and TNF Pick

World Series: Tigers straight up for 2 Units; Bumgarner's inexperience should play a factor

TNF: Buccaneers +5.5 for 3 Units; Buccaneers to win game 2 Units to win 5 Units

 

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 World Series Preview/Game 1 Preview

The Giants shocked America, and completed their miracle comeback from 3-1 down Monday night, when they defeated the Cardinals for the 3rd straight time in a row. Meanwhile, the Detroit Tigers had a much easier route to the fall classic, as they swept the mighty New York Yankees in 4 games. The Tigers come into this series well deservedly as the heavy favorite due to their recent success, however this series might just be a lot closer than many think. The Tigers have the star power with 2011 and 2012 MVP winners Justin Verlander and Miguel Cabrera, to go along with the perennial all-star slugger Prince Fielder. However as a whole, the Giants roster might just have the edge. After Verlander, the pitching edge will go to the Giants in this series, whose staff posted and ERA of 3.68 in the regular season which was good for 7th in the league. Meanwhile, the Tigers haven't had quite the same success, ranking 17th in WHIP and 19th in Batting Average Against, both categories in which the Giants are in the top 15. Meanwhile, on the batting side of the ball both teams are nearly equal with Giants actually having a better batting average of .269 to the Tigers .268. If the Tigers don't win Verlander's starts, including game 1, they will be long-shots to win the series, as the Giants seem to have the advantage with the rest of their staff. Another advantage that the Giant's have is home-field advantage which they got from the NL winning the All-Star game earlier this year. This series has potential to be a classic, and provide a lot of drama, if not fireworks. It might just bring back baseball as America's top sport...     Eh that's a stretch.

Starting Pitching: Slight Advantage Giants  (more depth)

Batting: Slight Advantage Tigers   (more power)

Bullpen: Even    (Lincecum phenomenal play from the pen has elevated the status of once struggling Giant's pen"

The Series Pick: Giants in 7 Games

Game 1 Pick: Giants for 2 Units to get 3 Units

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MNF Bears vs. Lions Week 7 Pick

The Bears are home against the Lions tonight, and with the Soldier Field fans, and a struggling Matt Stafford to along with it, they should have the big advantage in this match-up. The Bears love to play on Monday Night Football on a big stage, evident of their 34-18 drubbing of the Cowboys in which the Bears defense had 5 interceptions and 2 TD's. The Cowboys and the Lions offenses are similar, and Detroit's sub-par running game along with the fact that Chicago's defense is 1st in rush defense, is going to force them to air it out against a Bears defense that leads the league with 13 interceptions including a couple pick 6's as well. Night games in the Windy City are not ideal conditions to air it out, and the Lions should struggle immensely. This is a Lion's defense that gave up 41 points to an average Tennessee Titan offense, so look for the Bears to jump out early in this game and use Matt Forte and Michael Bush to keep a stronghold on their lead. The Pick: Bears -6.5 for 3 Units.

 

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  NLCS Game 7 Cardinals vs. Giants

You have to lay 1.8/1 if you take the Cardinals +1.5, and since no team so far in this series has won by less than 2 runs, we'll elect to take the Cardinals straight up getting +125. The Cardinals are not a team to be messed with in big games, as they have come out on top time and time again. The Giants will send Matt Cain to the bump, and the Cardinals will counter with Kyle Lohse. These are two of the best pitchers in baseball going up against each other, and the slight edge would go to Cain, if there is one at all. However, when you have two pitchers that are both in the elite category, it's ultimately up to the hitters on each team to get the job done, and this is why we think the Cardinals have the advantage. They had the highest on base percentage out of any team in the regular season, and their offensive success has largely carried over to the post-season, as they are averaging 4.75 runs per game in these playoffs. The winner here will be determined by which team can get their offense going quickly, and we see that team being the St. Louis Cardinals.   The Pick: Cardinals 2 Units to get 2.5 Units.

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 NFL Week 7 Picks

Titans (+3.5) vs. Bills (-3.5):  These two teams are very equal to each other. The Titans rank dead last in rushing, however explosive running back Chris Johnson will likely change that against a weak Bills defense that ranks 32nd. When there are two struggling defenses going up against each other, you have to take the points, so we'll go with the Titans. The real pick here is the over seeing that both teams can't stop the run, and that two of the most explosive backs in the league will be suiting up for this game. The O/U is 40.5. 5/6 Titans games this season have gone over that amount, and similarly 4/6 of the Bills have as well.  The Pick: Titans +3.5 for 1 Unit; Over 40.5 for 3 units

Cardinals (+6.5) vs. Vikings (-6.5):  The Vikings have averaged 22.6 points a game this year, and against a pretty good Cardinals defense, they might have trouble getting even that. In any case, this offense doesn't score enough to warrant the 6.5 point cover, which means the Cardinals would only have to score 16 points to cover the spread. They have accomplished this all but once this season, so we'll take Arizona.   The Pick: Cardinals (+6.5) for 2 Units

Cleveland Browns (+1) vs. Indianapolis Colts (-1): Whenever the line is 1, you have to treat it as a pick'em, and so long as Brandon Weeden is the quarterback for the Browns, pick'em and Browns shouldn't be mentioned in the same sentence. The Colts rank 3rd in pass defense, and going up against the terrible Brandon Weeden should help. Meanwhile, Andrew Luck will probably erase any lingering nostalgia of Peyton Manning for Colt's fans, as he should have a monster game picking apart this weak Browns secondary that ranks 30th in pass defense.  The Pick: Colts -1 for 3 Units

Ravens (+7) vs. Texans (-7): Houston will come out looking to prove that they're still the best, but that extra motivation shouldn't be enough to give them a 7 point advantage in tomorrow's game. The Ravens offense is used to playing against tough defenses like the Steelers, and they should be ready for the challenge. The Texans have only won by more than 7 in 3 of their 6 games, and against the Ravens, their chances of making it 4/7 are even slimmer.  The Pick: Ravens +7 for 2 Units

Packers (-5) vs. Rams +5:  Green Bay still trails Minnesota and Chicago in the NFC North, so they will be extra motivated to win this one. If Rodgers can torch an elite Texans' defense, he can surely torch the Rams defense. If this one gets ugly quickly, it could be a long day for the Rams, as they rank 26th in passing.    The Pick: Green Bay -5 for 3 Units

Cowboys -1 vs. Panthers +1:  Despite all their woes this season, the Dallas Cowboys still have too much talent to pick against in this game. They rank 6th in passing yards and 2nd in Pass defense. They should be able to win against a Panthers team that ranks outside the top-15 in every major category excluding rushing, in which they rank 13th.   The Pick: Cowboys -1 for 3 Units

Redskins (+6) vs. Giants (-6): The Giants are coming off a huge win against San Francisco, so look for them to potentially have a minor let down in this one. Eli should be able to torch the 'Skins secondary, but the a motivated Redskins offense is too talented to give 6 points. The Pick: Redskins +6 for 0.5 Units

Saints -1 vs. Tampa Bay +1: We expect this one to be high-scoring, seeing that the Saints rank dead last in rushing defense, and that the Bucs fare no better in pass defense, ranking 31st. If this game is indeed a high scoring affair, the Saints and Drew Brees will have the edge.  The Pick: Saints -1 for 1 Unit. Over 49 for 3 Units

Jets +10.5 vs. Patriots -10.5: This is going to be a ticked off Pats team that is coming off a 1 point loss to the Seahawks. This doesn't bode well for "Sachize" and the Jets, however you have to be cognizant that the 10.5 spread is extremely high for NFL games.  The Pick: Patriots -10.5 for 0.5 Units

Jaguars (+6) vs. Raiders (-6): The Jaguars rank in the bottom-10 in every major category on both the offensive and defensive side of the ball. Meanwhile, the Raiders have been playing well of late, and Carson Palmer has looked sharp thus far. With Darius Heyward-Bey and Denarius Moore at his disposal, look for him to air it out against a Jags defense that ranks 23rd in pass defense.  The Pick: Raiders -6 for 2 Units.

Bengals (+1) vs. Steelers (-1): The Steelers have been inconsistent thus far this season, however they still resemble the team that won the Super Bowl a couple years ago. They rank 7th in pass yards, and their defense is still elite, ranking 4th in opposing pass yards, and 9th in opposing rushing yards. Look for them to force a couple of turn-overs from the inexperienced Bengals QB, Andy Dalton. The Pick: Steelers -1 for 3 Units

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College Football Week 8 Picks

Alabama @ Tennessee: 65% of public are currently on Bama right now, yet the line has yet to move. That obviously raises a red flag, but as Oregon proved Thursday, sometimes red flags mean shit (ASU SUCKS). I have a hard time betting against Bama this season, because they are just too good. Instead, I will opt for the over. Tennessee has questionable the worst D in the SEC, and have given up 37,51,41 in their 3 games in the SEC so far. The good news is they have scored 31,44,20 in those respective games. Bama meanwhile has scored 42,33,52 in their 3 SEC games so far. Bama has only given up 24 points in the SEC….But that was against Arkansas without Tyler Wilson, an average Ole Miss team, and an offensively challenged Mizzu team. This time, they'll have to do it against Tennessee's star QB Tyler Bray. Tennessee has yet to have a game go under 50 so far this year, and I don’t think they will buck the trend this week. O 50.5 for 2 UNITS.

SC @ Florida: Sorry, but I am unable to find a great pick in this one. They both play very similar styles of football, and they both are very well coached. SC hasn’t lost 2 games in a row since 2009, but with Lattimore possibly missing, I think a small edge goes to Florida. SC’s line I also think will struggle against a tough Florida pass rush. Florida -3.5 for 1 UNIT.

Kansas St @ West Virginia: U is the play here. People forget that WV actually defends the run very well, in their last 3 games, WV has given up 49,45,and 63 points, yet they have yet to give up more than 175 rushing yards in those games. KSU is 119^th in the country in passing, and clearly will not be able to put up 500 yards passing, like the last 3 QB have been able to put up on WV. I am looking for a score similar to when KSU went to Oklahoma, and won 24-19. This should be an easy under 72, no way KSU runs for over 500 yards to put this game around 72.  U 72 for 3 UNITS,.

LSU @ Texas A&M: 62% of public is on LSU. LSU although can’t play on the road, as showed by their close 12-10 win @ Auburn, and their 6-14 loss @ Florida. A&M is battle tested, and has played 4 games on the road already. They also lost by 3 at home against Florida early this year, in a game they defiantly should have won. I think A&M is going very quietly under the radar right now, but they have possible the best offense in CFB. The public is too high on LSU to even consider taking them right now, wining at home against SC doesn’t make them the best team around. Texas A&M +3.5 for 2 UNITS.

Utah @ Oregon St: Oregon St. is currently undefeated, and as a result, the public will overrate them. 65% of bettors are currently on Oregon St. Utah, despite their 2-4 record, are actually a top 40 team in my opinion. They lost to USC at home by 10, almost won @ UCLA, beat a good BYU team at home, and lost @ Utah St in OT. They have covered the 10-point spread in every game this year, except at ASU. Oregon St also lives and dies by the pass, they are 8^th in the nation in passing, but a little known fact is that Sean Mannion, their starting QB for  4 games is injured. That means that Junior Cody Vaz is starting. I don’t know if he can be trusted only playing in one game this season. Utah plays great pass D, and I think that they will be able to stop the publicly overrated Beavers. Plus numbers fire says that Utah’s a 64% favorite to cover. Utah +10 for 2 Units.

Kansas @ Oklahoma: 67% of public is on Oklahoma -35, yet the line hasn’t moved. No other explanation is needed. Kansas +35 for 1 UNIT.

Rutgers @ Temple: 68% of public is on Rutgers, yet the line has moved 1.5 points in favor of Temple. Clearly the old case of a overrated undefeated team. Temple +4 for 2 UNITS,

Texas Tech @ TCU: Texas Tech upset a highly publicized WV team last week. Therefore the public overrates them this week. 63% of public is currently on TTU, but TCU is still a great team, and they have won 15 of their last 16 at home. TCU is also coming off pounding a very good Baylor team away from home. Another overrated public team to bet against this week. TCU +1.5 for 4 UNITS.

VT @ Clemson: Numbers fire says that VT is 69% favorite getting 7.5 points. Clemson’s best win this year is at home against a 4-3 Ball State team. Logan Thomas is still one of the elite QB’s in CFB, and should be motivated to try and start climbing up the draft boards, so I doubt VT will just lie down. VT has also played @NC and at home against undefeated Cincinnati. They also are coming off a pounding of a solid Duke team, in which they scored 41 straight points to come back and win. Prior to Duke’s loss to VT, had only lost @ Stanford. I think VT is extremely publicly underrated, and I think they will beat Clemson this week straight up. VT +7.5 FOR 4 UNITS.

FSU @ Miami (FL); Miami has been great at home, and is very underrated by the public. FSU can't play on the road, and especially in a rivalry game, I see no way that FSU will win by 25+. FSU has no D. MIAMI +22 5 UNITS

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ALCS Cardinals vs. Giants Game 4 Preview

The reigning champion Cardinals will look to get back to the Fall Classic tonight.

The St. Louis Cardinals are looking to join the Detroit Tigers in the Fall Classic, and a win tonight against San Francisco would do it. Lance Lynn is set to take the bump for the Cardinals, and veteran Barry Zito will counter for the Giants, who's season is in jeopardy. The power pitcher Lynn, brings his 3.28 ERA at home, and microscopically low 2.96 ERA in the night-time this year, to tonight's game, and he should have the advantage over the aging Zito, whose 4.15 ERA during the regular season is nothing to boast about. Another reason for Giants fans to worry, is that the Cardinals have hit lefty's hard this season. They have a .276 batting average this year against southpaws, and the heart of the lineup, Matt Holiday, Allen Craig, Yadier Molina, and David Freese have fared even better, hitting .333. Meanwhile, Giants bats have been struggling this post-season, and have an abysmal .219 BA to show for it. The Cards are the pick here to win it, and set up a rematch of the 2006 world series with the San Francisco Giants.   The Pick: Cardinals -1.5 runs for 2 Units to get 3 Units

 

 

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 NLCS Giants @ Cardinals Game 4 Pick

Tim Lincecum is one of the most rapidly declining players in the MLB. Yet, the Cardinals have a .322 average against him, in their respective careers. Tim also has yet to make a start in around a month, and has a awful 6.43 ERA away from home.  Adam Wainwright is on the mound for the Cards, bringing in a 3.70 ERA at home, but a 3.28 overall ERA in the second half of the season, but in his last start he gave u 6 runs in 2.1 innings against WSH, and the Giant's are hitting over .300 career against him, but did only give up a .231 average against them this year. I have no idea which version of these pitchers will show up, they are both extremely inconsistent. One stat that is pretty telling about Wainwright however, is in his last start that he couldn't make it out of the third inning was @ Washington, in his next start against the Mets, he gave up 5 runs in 5 innings pitched. This could be a useless stat, but I feel SFG is the right play +1.5 tonight, because I love the 1.5 runs for away teams. SFG +1.5 FOR 2 UNITS TO WIN 1 UNIT. 

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Seattle @ 49ers Pick/Preview

Seattle is the pick here; I think the 49ers are overrated. Seattle is undefeated this year as underdogs, and they have covered the 9.5 spread in every single game this year. Meanwhile, the 49ers have only played 1 game on Thursday night football in their past 2 seasons, in which they lost by 10. Seattle won on Monday night at home against GB. They also won on Thursday Night last year, blowing out the Eagles at home, as well as winning on Monday Night @ STL. I think the most telling stat in this one is the Seahawks are 31st in passing, and 49ers are 26th in passing. The Seahawks are #2 rush D, against the 49ers #1 rush O. This game will be won or lost with the run with both sides, and I think that favors the team getting 9.5 points all day. Their stats and records appear to be mere images of each other, and that is why I can't understand why home field is worth 9.5 points. Seattle is the play here, public is right at 55%. Seattle +9.5 for 3 Units. 

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Oregon @ ASU Pick/Preview

If you read my College Football Power Rankings, you would know I hate Oregon. I truly think they will lose tonight @ ASU. ASU has covered every game this year, compared to Oregon who are only 50%. A crazy amount, 62% of the public is on Oregon tonight, yet the line has actually gone down in ASU's favor, that shows the bookies are extremely confident ASU will cover. In fact, Numbers Fire says that ASU should be a 67% favorite to cover the spread. Remember, the spread is supposed to be around 50/50. ASU was 5-2 last year at home, playing a very difficult schedule, compared to Oregon who only went on the road 4 times last season. ASU is a top 25 team, who has blown every team (other than Mizzu) out this season. This is an easy pick, whenever the public is extremely on a team, yet the line moves the other way, it shows the bookies are extremely confident in the other team. ASU +9.5 for 3 units.

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SGS Betting Review 10/16/12           Giants vs. Cardinals Game 3 Pick Below 

NCAAF: Past Week: -1 Units and 4-5 record  (44%)

NCAAF: Overall: +9 Units and 15-14 record  (51.7%)

NFL: Past Week: -3 Units and 3-3 record  (50%)

NFL: Overall: +13 Units and 18-9 record  (66.7%)

MLB: Past Week: +1 units and 6-7 record (46.2%)  Cardinals vs. Giants Game 3 is on Wed; so its not included

MLB: Overall: +11.5 units and 14-10 record  ( 58.3%)

Soccer: Past Week: No change and 0-0 record

Soccer Overall: +2.5 Units and 3-2 record  (60%)

Tennis: Past Week: -2.5 Units and 0-1 record  (0%)

Tennis: Overall: -2.5 Units and 0-1 record   (0%)

UFC: Past Week: -6.5 Units 0-0 record (UFC is not based on the spread; unlike our record, which is)

UFC Overall: -6.5 Units 0-0 record (UFC is not based on the spread; unlike our record, which is)

All Sports Past Week: -12 Units and 13-16 record  (44.8%)

All Sports Overall: +27 Units and 50-36 record     (58.1%)

*Most SGS picks/bets are based on the spread which are mathematically 50/50 games at picking; the games which are not 50/50 are not included in the overall record due to potential inflation or deflation of the true record

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NLCS Giants @ Cardinals Game 3 Preview/Pick

Matt Cain has struggled of late, giving up 6 runs in his last 10 2/3 innings.

I could rehash everything I wrote in my DS (draft street) article, but to put it simpler terms, Cain is pitching very bad right now, and the Giants' hitters seem to have Lohse's number. It has gone O the spread every game this series, and with 2 struggling pitchers on the mound, this one will get ugly fast. The bullpens are also rather depleted since most starters have struggled to give their club quality innings this series. Cain also has a 3.56 ERA away, compare to a 2.03 at home. Cain also has a slightly higher ERA during the day. Lohse also has a ERA almost a full run higher during the day, as well as the fact that he is struggling lately. This should get ugly quick, but the clubs will try and milk the SP to give RP a break, leading to a high scoring game. O 7 might be my favorite pick since creating the site, all as some people say all roads lead to over, this is a reputation based line. O 7 for 4 units.

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NLCS Cardinals vs. Giants Game 2 Pick/Preview

Chris Carpenter will look to put the Giants in a big hole tonight, for the reigning champion Cardinals, while Ryan Vogelsong will look to keep his Giants away from their grave. The Cardinals are red-hot and won Game 1 6-4. Right now, the Giants are getting 2/1 on covering the -1.5 spread. On paper it looks like the Cardinals might have the edge, however Cardinals pitcher Chris Carpenter has only pitched in 3 games this regular season due to receiving surgery to repair a nerve problem in his shoulder. In addition, Carpenter has a much worse ERA of 3.78 in his last 3 seasons at home compared to his dominant 2.96 at home. Meanwhile Giants pitcher Ryan Vogelsong has pitched well recently, giving up only 2 runs in his last 4 outings. The Over/Under line of 6.5 is way to low for a playoff baseball game, so we'll take the Giants and Over.  The Pick: Giants -1.5 2 Units to get 4 Units; Over 6.5 for 3 Units.

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MNF Charger vs. Broncos Preview/Pick

The San Diego Chargers (3-2) take on the Denver Broncos (2-3) tonight. The Chargers have been mediocre thus far this season, however finally having star running back, Ryan Mathews back and at full health, should benefit them greatly. The Chargers game-plan is likely going to be to pound it on the ground against an average rush defense, rather than take their chances downfield against the likes of Champ Bailey. However, this won't stop Phillip Rivers, the Chargers quarterback from throwing in an occasional deep bomb and testing Broncos CB Chris Harris, who's filling in for injured star cornerback Tracy Porter. Look for the Chargers to take advantage of this with their depth at the receiver position. Meanwhile, aside from probable struggling on the defensive side of the ball, it looks like Peyton Manning will have to win it by himself for the Broncos tonight, as not only are the Broncos averaging a pedestrian-like 101 rushing yards a game, but they also are going to face a stifling Charger's defense that allows only 74 rushing yards a game, which is good for 3rd in the league. Another major factor about this game, is that it will be in San Diego, where not only will the Chargers have the home crowd, but they will also enjoy the warm 77 degrees forecast for tonight's game, as they are used to playing in this climate. We see it being a close game, but San Diego -1 is the pick here.  The Pick: San Diego -1 for 3 Units

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Packers @ Texans SNF Pick/Preview

I love the Pack in this. The Texans have played no one this season. No team they have played has a record over .500 at this moment. The Packers meanwhile, have covered the spread 3.5 in every single one of their games this season. The Pack got caught looking ahead last week, although it was poor discipline, it should be ignored. The Pack clearly played as the superior team, and that is all a sports better should look at. This a flat out trap, the Packers didn't lose their talent over night, and the Texans are being over documented. They are in fact worse than last year, and just a beneficiary of an easy schedule.  The Pick: Packers +3.5 for 3 Units

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NLCS Cardinals @ Giants Game 1

I am going to recommend you to pound the over. Lance Lynn has been awful in the second half of the season. He has been pitching in relief as of late, so its an interesting decision to start him tonight. He has a 8.37 ERA in playoffs, and has given up 6.00 ERA against the Giants.  Bumgarner has gone 4.1 innings and has given up 4 runs, in his only post-season start this year. He has yet to go 7 innings in his past 8 starts, despite playing SD 2X, Rockies 2X, ARI, and CHC. He clearly isn't the same SP he was earlier in the season, which will result in people overrating him. This, I think, will be a 12-15 run game, both SP just have not been good. O 7 for 2 Units.

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ALCS Tigers @ Yankees Game 2

I am sorry for lack of description for this one, but this one should be going to the Yankees. Sanchez has been solid this season, but certainly won't be able to shut them down. The last time he faced the Yankees he gave up 7 ER in 3 IP. Kuroda meanwhile has a 2.72 ERA at home, and has been pitching incredible as of late, going 7 or more IP and given up less than 2 runs in his last 3 starts. The Yankees are also an experianced organization, and they know they can't drop 2 games at home. I think they will use Jeter's injury for motivation, and they will get the W. YANKEES -134 1 UNIT.

 

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 NFL Week 6 Preview

  Patriots (-3.5) vs. Seahawks

This is a Patriots team that could perhaps be more dangerous than ever. They found their true running backs in Stevan Ridley and Brandon Bolden, and Tom Brady is the same MVP caliber quarterback that he was 7 months ago. Seattle's strength is running the ball with Marshawn Lynch, however the Patriots defense has surprised everyone with their ability to stop the run, as they currently rank 8th in rushing defense, against a schedule that included Ray Rice, CJ Spiller, and Chris Johnson. If the Seahawks can't run on the Pats, they will struggle even more through the air. They rank 31st in passing offense, and if they fall behind a score, it's likely that they won't be able to ever get back. The Pick: Patriots -3.5 for 3 Units

Cardinals -5 vs. Bills +5

5 points is an awful lot for a team that ranks a horrendous 25th in passing offense and 31st in rushing. Buffalo themselves are not a very good football team, but atleast they can run the ball, as they rank 5th in rushing. Meanwhile, the Cardinals "spectacular" defense is average according to the statistics, as they rank 18th in pass defense and 14th in rushing defense. The Cardinals should win this one at home, but 5 points is way too much.  Bills +5 for 1 Unit

Vikings -1.5 vs. Redskins

Vikings are the better team, but the Skins are at home. This one is truly a tossup, especially with RGIII performance being completely unpredictable a week after suffering a concussion. Stay Away

San Francisco (-7) vs. Giants (+7)

No, this line isn't as off as you may think. I would say something closer to -5 for the Niners, but in reality, this game is not far from a pick'em. This a big stage for the Giants, and Eli loves the big stages. San Francisco's defense is an elite one, but shutting down an offense that will finally have its  players healthy, with Nicks, Barden, and Bradshaw slated to play, is asking too much of this defense. The Giants rank 3rd in their aerial attack that didn't include Hakeem Nicks for a large part of the season, so look for them to test the Niners secondary. If Eli can keep the turnovers down, the Giants should cover.  The Pick: Giants +7 for 3 U

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UFC 153 Picks/Betting Preview

Anderson Silva (-1065) vs. Stephan Bonnar (+781)

Bonnar is getting great value, and for anyone that reads this, you must jump on this line while you can. Anderson Silva (32-4) comes in as the huge favorite vs. Stephan Bonnar (15-7), and no one is really giving Bonnar a chance. While Silva might be the best fighter in the world, there's something about this matchup that makes me uneasy about his chances to win. Bonnar is the bigger and stronger fighter and has a 2 inch height advantage to go along with a 2.5 reach advantage. Another thing that you should be cognizant of, is the fact that, in his 22 professional fights, Bonnar has never been knocked out or submitted by any of his opponents, which include aplethura of stars like Lyoto Machida, Forrest Griffin, Rashad Evans, and Jon Jones. Anderson's not a great wrestler, so Bonnar is going to try to use his power to get Silva to the ground, and avoid Silva's vicious standup. Anytime your getting huge odds, on what could likely be a decision, you have to take them. The Pick: Stephan Bonnar (+781) 2 Units to get 15.5 Units


Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (-302) vs. Dave Herman (+266)

This line is way too favorable for Nogueira. Dave Herman is a young rising star, and is looking to shake off a 2 match losing streak tonight against Nogueira. Both men's strength is wrestling, with Nogueira having the technical advantage in both grappling and stand-up, while Herman takes the advantage in the strength department. Nogueira is going to have a tough time taking the much stronger Herman down, and I think as a result, Nogueira will be on his back a lot in this fight.
The Pick: Dave Herman (+266) 4 Units to get 10.5 Units.


Glover Teixeira (-394)  vs. Fabio Maldonado (+341)

Maldonada is one of the greatest boxers in the MMA, and has lightning fast hands. However, he is very inexperienced at wrestling, which happens to be Glover's strong suit. While I think Glover will win, with Maldonado's hands, this one is too risky to take Glover. The Pick: Glover (no units)

Erik Silva (-140) vs. Jon Fitch (+127)

Silva is fast, and has deceiving power to go along with good submissions, however Fitch is too strong and will out-wrestle Silva in this one. Silva will have a tough time staying off his back, so we'll take Fitch in most likely a decision.  The Pick: Jon Fitch (+127) 4 units to get 5 Units. 

Phil Davis (-369) vs. Wagner Prado (+321)

Prado has yet to face an opponent on the same level as Davis, and while Prado has dangerous striking, he won't be able to defend against Davis's takedowns. Davis will dominate on the ground and pick up a victory.  The Pick: Phil Davis 5.5 Units to GET 1.5 Units

Demian Maia (-137) vs. Rick Story (+124)  

If Rick Story can keep this fight away from the ground for the most part, I think he'll take it. He's a grinder and I don't think we've seen enough from Maia to take him in this fight. Maia is a supreme grappler, but I think Story will grind him out for the win.  The Pick: Rick Story 4 units to get 5 Units

Diego Brandao (-181) vs. Joey Gambino (+282)

Gambino is a finisher, and in 10 fights, he's only been in a decision once. Meanwhile Brandao brings his pedestrian 14-8 record to this fight. Gambino's got a height advantage and a 6 inch reach advantage over Branao as well. Gambino's a warrior, and he should be able to win this one.
The Pick: Joey Gambino 3 Units to get 8.5 Units

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 ALCS Tigers @ Yankees Game 1 Pick/Preview

Tigers @ Yankees: Pettitte has been pitching well. One huge problem, Tigers are hitting over .400 against him. Tigers hit lefties amazingly and I think they will be able to go yard quite a few times, Pettitte has given up 8 HR in 12 games, but that number is even higher at home. Fister has only given up .283 average to Yankees hitters, but the majority of those come from Ian Stewart, who is not in the lineup tonight. In this type of game, I like the U, both pitchers have pretty high ERA's and they are pitching in a hitters park, but they have been pitching very well of late. Fister has a 2 ERA against Yankees and a 2.74 since all-star break. U 7.5 1 UNIT.

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NCAA Week 7 PICKS

Texas @ Oklahoma -3.5    Texas is coming off a heartbreaking loss to Geno Smith and the Mountaineers, and since this squad isn't exactly spoiled to winning, you can expect them to still have the same hunger to win as they did before. Landry Jones has not turned out the way Sooners' fans have wanted him to be, as in 4 games he only has had 7 touchdowns. Meanwhile, the Longhorns offense has been putting up lots of points, and despite being without RB Malcolm Brown, they still have one of the best running games in the nation led by Jonathan Gray and Joe Bergeron. Look for the Longhorns to pound the ball down the Sooners' throats, and definitely cover this spread.   
The Pick: Texas +3.5 for 3 Units 
 
South Carolina @ LSU -3: SC heads to Louisiana to take on LSU Tigers. LSU is coming off a rough loss against a solid Florida team. The Tigers however look awful. They only could put up 6 points, which magnified their lack of a passing attack. It will only get worse against a D that just gave up 7 points to a top 5 offense. SC was riding high before their QB was kicked out, and their work horse RB Marcus Lattimore  suffered a season-ending injury last year. I think LSU will be overrated, despite their recent loss. People will think this will be a rebound game for the Tigers. What rebound? They have played horrible in their last 3 games, and could only beat Towson by 16 at home.  LSU is flatout overrated, but I think this could be a possible trap, because LSU has won their last 24 at home. Oh and the O/U is a no play, U is just to obvious. SC is 5-1 vs. spread, they are the play. SC +3 for 2 UNITS.

Illinois vs. Michigan -25: Michigan will win this game, but it'll be tough for them to cover an enormous 25 point spread. If the Illini can put up 10-17 points, they should cover.   The Pick: Illinois +25 for 2 Units

Louisiana Tech VS.. Texas AM: Calling it, this will be the best game of the week. LA Tech is currently 3rd in the NCAA in total points with 53 a game. They are also 109th in total D. Texas AM is 8th in points, and #14th in D. La Tech has yet to score less than 56 at home, compared to Texas AM who killed SMU 48-3 on the road. Both these teams are not typically known has dominate offensive teams, and that's why I don't think over is a trap. Too many people just read the names, and think they know best. This could replicate Baylor WV, their offenses are that good. You always have to go over the largest over of the week. O 79 for 2 Units.
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WV @ Texas Tech +3.5: The pick is Tech. 72% of public is on WV, yet the line has hardly moved .5 points. BOOKIES AREN'T STUPID. WV has had 2 extremely profiled CLOSE wins. If they blew out Texas, they would be getting less coverage. Tech is coming off a bad loss against Oklahoma, but a little known fact is Tech is 7-1 in games after losses in the past few seasons. WV has just won 2 huge games, and Tech will be overlooked by an inexperienced WV group. 72% is insane, plus I think the stats point to Tech too. TECH + 3.5 FOR  4UNITS

KSU @ ISU: LOOK AT THE WEATHER REPORT. 80% chance of precipitation right now. That certainly won't hurt scrambling QB Colin Klein of KSU. Rain helps the O, because it is harder to react on a slippery surface. If a CB trips, it's 6, while if a WR trips its just 2nd down. KSU is #9 on the ground, they should have a field day on a wet field; ISU D is good, and would not be overlooked on a clean surface. ISU just doesn't have burners, and that will hurt them. KSU -6 FOR 1 UNIT.

Florida @ Vandy: I love me some under.Vandy has played some tough road games this year: Georgia, Mizzu, and Northwestern. At home, they managed to hold South Carolina to 17 points.They are 102 in offense, and a solid 32 in D (automatically in top 50 if you play in SEC). Florida is 6th in D, and 69th in O. They have only gone over 41 one time this year, and Vandy has only gone over 2 times (once was when they beat Presbyterian 58-0). I don't understand the line, it just doesn't add up, the public isn't even on it too much. U 41.5 FOR 3 UNITS.

Stanford @ ND: No rhyme or reason here. I think the public always overrates ND, but Stanford will probably be overrated too. I like Stanford just cause public is leaning toward ND. But hardly. Stanford +7 FOR .5 UNIT.

Tennessee @ Miss St: Tennessee has the hardest schedule this year, and I think a tough close loss to Georgia will drain them. They got #3 and #1 next up, so Miss St will look like a cupcake. Unfortunately, Miss St. is also a scrappy team that is quietly public 5-0. Miss ST -3 FOR 1 UNIT.

Iowa @ MSU: MSU has lost 2 very close and hard fought games against top 25 opponents. Iowa is on the road for the first time this year, they went 1-4 last year.They are 3-2 with one of the easiest schedules around, all at home. MSU has (IMO) a top 5 D, and should hold a horrible Iowa attack to less than 10. MSU should win this one easy. They are the best 4-2 team around. They both love to run the rock, which should also lead to a EASY under play. U39 3 UNITS AND MSU -7.5 FOR 1 UNIT

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Tennis Shanghai Masters Semifinal; Federer vs. Murray

This is an interesting matchup, and in the previous two encounters between Federer and Murray, (Wimbledon and Olympics) I picked Murray to win both times. However, this time, I'm not going to bet against the greatest player of all time. Typically after grandslams, Murray tends to drop off for a little until the next Masters tournament. Recently retired Andy Roddick, who had the pleasure of playing against Federer in 4 of his 5 Grand Slam appearances said that Federer doesn't get enough credit for grinding out wins; which Federer had ironically done in his epic 2009 final against Roddick, where Federer won 16-14 in the fifth. Both Federer and Murray have not looked great so far this tournament, which means that this match just might go to the person who can grind and dig deeper, which could give Federer the significant edge. In addition, Murray has already won the Olympics and  the US Open this season, and is seemingly content with this, while the veteran Federer is still looking to maintain his #1 ranking. It would be unreasonable to think that Fed won't want revenge after losing to Murray in the Olympics.  FED -121 FOR 2.5 UNITS TO WIN 2.

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Thursday Night Football Pick: Steelers vs. Titans

Above: Titans RB Chris Johnson has yet to find the End Zone this season.

Tennessee is +6 in this matchup, and being cognizant that this is an NFL game, I still think this line is overrating the Titans ability to move the ball and play defense. The Titans have only scored more than 14 points once so far this season, and the future doesn't look any brighter against a dominant Steelers' defense that has been a model for NFL defense's for the past decade. The Titans only "strength" is running the ball, as they have  star Chris Johnson, but unless you've been on vacation for the past 6 weeks, you would know that this is not the case, as the Titans currently rank 30th in rushing. On top of their atrocious offense, the Titans are also one of the league's worst defenses, giving up more than 30 points every game this season, and ranking in the bottom 10 in every major defensive category. The chances that they keep this game close are slim.   The Pick: Steelers -6 for 4 Units

 

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10/11 MLB Pick; A's vs. Tigers Game 4; Yanks vs. O's Game 4

Justin Verlander is taking the mound for the Tigers, who are the slight favorite to cover 1.5 runs in this game. Verlander has been dominant in his last four starts, so we'll keep riding his streak until it costs us, because that's the only mind set we can have with a pitcher as good as him. Jarrod Parker will make his post-season debut for the A's, who has a team are inexperienced at best. Look for the Tigers to jump out early, and for Verlander to go 7, maybe even 8 strong.  The Pick: Tigers -1.5 runs for 2 Units.

Meanwhile, the Yankees are also looking to secure a spot in the ALCS tonight, and a third win over Baltimore tonight, would do just that. Joe Saunders is taking the mound for the Orioles tonight, and he has avoided a bad start in his last 6 outings, which is good news for Orioles fans, as they'll need him to make it 7 if they want to last any longer. Despite this, one has to be cognizant of the fact that Saunders isn't exactly a strikeout pitcher, and that he also gives up lots of hits, which is evident by the fact that his career batting average against is .276. Against a powerful Bronx Bomber's lineup, this likely will not get the job done.  The Pick: Yankees -1.5 runs 3 units to get 2 Units

 

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ALDS Yankees vs. Orioles Game 3

Baltimore is fresh off a 3-2 victory over the Yankees in game 2 to tie the series up, however don't count on this to continue. The Yankees are at home in the Bronx, which means the Orioles will face the daunting task of beating perhaps baseball's biggest team, on one of baseball's biggest stages. This doesn't bode well for them, as their starting pitcher for this matchup, Miguel Gonzalez is making his post-season debut. The amalgamation of the rowdy New York crown and New Yankee Stadium makes this an unideal place for him to start. Meanwhile, the Yankees will counter with the experienced Hiroki Kuroda, who at 37 years of age, seems a lot younger for his years with his 2.72 ERA at home this year. Throughout the regular season, the Yankees were top-10 in all major hitting categories, including being ranked 1st in slugging percentage. We think that their success will carry over to tonight's game, and force the Orioles to go to the pen early.The Yankees experience will let them take over this game early.    The Pick: Yankees -1.5 runs for 3 Units to get 2 Units.  Over 8.5 for 2 Units

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SGS Betting Review 10/9/12

NFL: Past Week: +12 Units (11-3 against Spread)  78.6%
NFL: Total: +16 Units (15-6 against spread)   71.4%

NCAAF: Past Week: -1 Units (5-4 against spread)    55.6%
NCAAF: Total: +10 Units (11-9 against spread)       55%

MLB: Past Week: +10.5 Units (8-3 against spread) 72.7% ;   Note:does not include NLDS Reds vs. Giants game 3 which took place on tuesday. SGS betting "week" is from Tuesday morning to Tuesday morning.

MLB: Total: +10.5 Units (8-3 against spread)  72.7%

Soccer: Past Week: +3.5 Units (2-0 against spread)  100%
Soccer: Total: +2.5 Units (3-2 against spread)         60%

All Sports Past Week: +25 Units (26-10 against spread)    72.2%
All Sports Total: +39 Units (37-20 against spread)      64.9%

 This means that if you listened to our picks from the beginning, you would have profited 39 times as much as your average bet (unit). Ex: if your average bet/unit is a dollar, you would have made 39 dollars.

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Tigers @ A's

Tigers @ A's -133: Well, Tigers are looking to sweep the storybook A's tonight. It certainly won't be easy, but I think it will be done. Anderson has a 11.57 ERA against the Tigers this year, in 2.1 innings pitched. Anderson only has 6 starts this year, and has a 2.57 ERA. I think it should be of note that he has only given up 1 HR in 35 innings pitched. Due to the lack of instant offense against Anderson, I also like U 7. Tigers combined have hit a .280 against Anderson. Another reason I like the Tigers is that Anderson frequently throws to the right side of the plate. The Tigers have hit pitches on the right side of the plate  50 batting points better, than pitches thrown on the left side. I believe that is a untold stat that explains why he struggles with the Tigers. Anibal Sanchez starts tonight, and although the A's are hitting .282 against him, Sanchez is a great road pitcher. He has pitched in two of the best hitters parks in the MLB, Marlins park and Detroit's home park. He has a staggering 3.29 ERA on the road, compared to 4.52 at home. Sanchez is also coming off a start in which he pitched 6 solid innings, and gave up 1 run against Minnesota, and before he pitched a complete game shutout against KC. Sanchez also has given up a crazy 20 HR this year in 32 starts, but I think he will strongly benefit from playing in Oakland's pitcher friendly park. Tigers for 1 unit and U 7 for 1 unit.

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NLDS Reds vs. Giants Game 3 Picks/Betting Preview

The Reds are looking to close out their opening series against the giants in about 30 minutes from now. The spread is Reds -1.5 (+158) and Giants +1.5 (-175) This means that if you pick the Reds to cover the 1.5 runs that they are favored to win by, you get an additional 58 cents or 0.58 units to your potential winnings for every dollar/unit you bet. Ryan Vogelsong will take the rubber for the Giants, who are hoping to avoid elimination, and Homer Bailey, fresh off two dominant performances including a no hitter against the Pirates on September 28th, will take the mound for the Reds. Both pitchers have similar ERA's as Vogelsong has the slight advantage with his 3.37 ERA compared to Bailey's 3.68. However, it was Bailey who has been dominant most recently, as he had a total ERA of only 2.02 in the month of September. Meanwhile, Vogelsong has been atrocious in August and September, posting ERA's of 6.32 and 6.48. Bailey has struggled throughout the season at home, however we expect that the fan base in Cincinatti will be energized, and spread the energy to not only Homer, but also to the Red's bats. San Francisco hasn't even been close in game 1 and 2 when they were at home, and they have 3 players in their lineup that have yet to record a hit in the series. Unless the Giants bats suddenly wake from hibernation and tee off on Homer Bailey, we don't see them winning. With the Reds getting odds to cover, they're a must pick in this game. Even if they don't manage to cover, we don't see the Giants putting up too many runs on Homer Bailey, so we'll take the under and sort of "hedge" our bet seeing that we're getting odds to take Reds -1.5. The Pick: 2 Units to get 3 Units on Reds -1.5  and  Under 7.5 for 2 units.   We would have to be totally off to lose units based on the bets we will place. A likely case is that the two picks will end up cancelling each other out.

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 Monday Night Preview/Betting Prediction

Well tonight the Jets go up against the undefeated Texans who many think are the best team in the league.  As an all around team, there is no one that can match up with them on either side of the ball.  An electrifying offense around with the most talented back in the league in Arian Foster, and not to mention a guy that would be a pro bowler on any other team as his back up in Ben Tate.  On top of that, they have a very underrated quarterback in Matt Schaub and a top flight receiver in Andre Johnson. On the other side of the ball, their premier defense is anchored by J.J Watt who looks to be the NFC defensive player of the year this year, and he certainly would get my vote so far.  On the flip the Jets have... well... they're the Jets.  Their best receiver is Santonio Holmes which says something and he's already out for the year so Mark Sanchez will probably be targeting the ground even more tonight. Darelle Revis is out for the year so Andre Johnson should have a big game.  Plain and simple, if Foster, Schaub, Andre Johnson, and J.J Watt got AIDS before tonight's game, I'd still take the Texans. There won't be any upset going here tonight unless we see Tebow pull some crazy comeback if he ends up playing. Texans win big by at least 3 possessions should be done by the third quarter.    The Pick: Texans -9 for 2 Units

 

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NLDS Cardinals vs. Nationals Game 2 Preview/Betting Prediction

The Cardinals and the Nationals get set to play each other today at 3:07 CT time. Jordan Zimmerman will take the bump for the Nats, and lefty Jaime Garcia will counter for the reigning world champions Cardinals. The Nationals lead the series 1-0 after taking game 1 three to two. The Cardinal's hitters struggled mightily and only recorded 3 hits for an abysmal .107. On the other side, the Nationals bats were awake in game 1, and had 8 hits. They have batted .265 against lefty's this year, and they have 3 starters that are hitting over .300 against them. Zimmermann has been lights out this year on the road, with a 2.36 ERA. Garcia has been nearly as dominant at home this year, posting a 2.86 ERA. All signs point to a low scoring game, so we think that it'll be hard for the Nationals to cover the -1.5 run spread on the road. The Cardinals, including Jaime Garcia have more postseason experience than the Nats and Zimmermann do, so we'll pick the Cardinals to cover the spread. Look for the Cardinals to bounce back in this one. The Pick: Under 7.5 runs for 2 Units and Cardinals +1.5 for 2 Units

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NLDS Giants vs. Reds Game 2 Preveiw/Betting Prediction

The Reds and the Giants face off tonight at AT&T ballpark in San Francisco. The Giants send Madison Bumgarner to the rubber, and the Reds will counter with Bronson Arroyo. Bumgarner had a 3.37 ERA in the regular season and had an even better 2.38 ERA at home. Meanwhile, Bronson Arroyo has a 3.74 ERA. The starters for the Reds have struggled against Bumgarner, and are a combined 14/69 (.200) against him. Meanwhile, the Giants starters have fared much better against their opposing pitcher, Bronson Arroyo, as they are 30/102 (.294) against him. The Giants have the advantage in this one, and being at home with a dominant pitcher like Bumgarner should allow them to cover the -1.5 spread.   The Pick: Giants -1.5 for 2 Units TO GET 3 and Under 7 for 1 Unit.   (Giants -1.5 handicap is +1.5 so we put in 2 to get 3)

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NFL Picks/Betting Preview Week 5

Sorry about the late post, we will post our picks earlier next time. We feel that they're are some really nice lines this week in the NFL, so we will try to be selective, and take advantage of them. To ensure a profit (atleast a high chance of won), we will bet more units on these games we feel we can take advantage of, and bet very small on the games that we feel have less attractive lines. First we will start off with the big ones, and then after, briefly give you our picks for the lesser ones.

Chicago Bears (-5.5) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (+5.5)

I find this line disrespectful to the Bears after last weeks performance against the Cowboys. If Tony Romo threw 5 interceptions against this defense, how many will Blaine Gabbert throw? Also, the warm weather in Jacksonville will be beneficiary for Cutler, and allow the Bears offense to get in a groove, just like they did last week in the dome. Other than Maurice Jones-Drew, the Jaguars offense doesn't really have many weapons that can hurt the Bears. The Bears explosive defense will shutdown MJD, Gabbert, and company, while Jay Cutler and the offense will do their part by blowing this game open. The Jaguars are 31st in passing offense, and 30th in total defense. It's going to be a long day for Jags fans. The Pick: Bears -5.5 for 4 Units.


Atlanta Falcons (-3) vs. Washington Redskins (+3)

Really...I might regret saying this later, but in reality, this is a matchup between an unexperienced rookie-led team and an experienced, Super Bowl caliber Atlanta Falcons team. Matt Ryan has been an elite quarterback this year, and is having field days throwing to a receiving core that includes Roddy White, Julio Jones, and Tony Gonzalez. Yes, the Redskins will put up some points. But will their 31st ranked defense that gives up 326 yards a game be able to keep up with the Falcons aerial attack? Eh..
The Pick: Falcons -3 for 3 units


Green Bay Packers (-7) vs. Indianapolis Colts (+7)

The Packers are not going to take this game lightly, as they know a .500 record isn't going to cut it in their tough NFC North division. The Colts are at the Packer's mercy in this game, as their conservative play-calling style with rookie Andrew Luck at the helm, won't be able to hang with possibly the best offense in the NFL, led by reigning MVP, Aaron Rodgers.  The Pick: Packers -7 for 4 units


Steelers (-3.5) vs. Eagles (+3.5) 

After seeing their division rivals, the Cowboys go down to the Bears last week, the Eagles know that they can really grab the stronghold on their division with a win over the ferocious Steelers. The Steelers are getting Rashard Mendenhall back for this game, and that should help a rushing attack that ranks 30th in the NFL, however he won't see a big workload, so the Steelers offense will continue to struggle. Meanwhile the Eagles have one of the top backs in the game in Lesean McCoy, and they'll use him to plug away at the Steelers defense, which will allow Michael Vick make big plays against the Steelers secondary. The Eagles are too explosive to give up points on this one. The Pick: Eagles +3.5 for 2 units. 


Saints (-3.5) vs. Chargers (+3.5)

The Chargers will be motivated as ever to win this game, as they know this game can effect playoff implications later on this year. Meanwhile, it's going to be tough for the Saints to get motivated for this one, as they're off to an 0-4 start. The Chargers are 3-1, with their only gaffe coming against the Falcons in week 3 where they got thrashed 27 to 3. Other than that, they have played solid football, and should continue to do so on Sunday. Ryan Mathews is fully recovered from a broken clavicle that sidelined him for the 1st two weeks, and is expected to see an increased workload. This is terrible news for a Saints defense that ranks DEAD LAST in defending the rush. If the Chargers get behind, Philip Rivers won't be afraid to air the ball out and get them within this +3.5 line.  The Pick: Chargers +3.5 for 4 UNITS


Giants (-9.5) vs. Browns (+9.5)  

The Browns are off to a 0-4 start, and don't rank higher than 20 in any major category. The Giants are coming off a loss to their division rivals Eagles, and won't be looking to toy around with the lousy Browns in this one. Brandon Weeden gets the award for worst quarterback in the NFL, and the Browns basically gave up on the season when they announced he would be their starter over Colt McCoy.     The Pick: Giants -9.5 for 3 Units.



OTHER PICKS:  (No Beneficiary Lines, so keep Bets Low (1-2 units))

Minnesota Vikings (-5.5) vs. Tennessee Titans (+5.5)    Minnesota's defense is too good for horrendous Titans offense.   The Pick: Minnesota (-5.5) for 1 Unit

Patriots (-6.5) vs. Broncos (+6.5)   Never bet against Peyton....Oh wait. Never bet against Brady. We don't know which Peyton will show up so....The Pick: Patriots -6.5 for 1 unit.

Bengals (-3) vs. Dolphins (+3)    Miami's defense has played well so far, however Cincinatti at home is too good for them. Dalton and the Bengals should cover the spread.   The Pick: Bengals -3 for 2 units

Ravens (-6.5) vs. Chiefs (+6.5)   Jamaal Charles is a beast, and the Chiefs are at home in Arrowhead.   The Pick: Chiefs +6.5 for 1 Unit.
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Panthers (-2.5) vs. Seahawks (+2.5)   Big advantage for Carolina being at home, however Seattle's defense is too good.   The Pick: Seahawks +2.5 for 1 Unit.

49ers (-10) vs. Bills (+10)   The Bills will have a tough time running the ball against a San Francisco defense that ranks 3rd in rush defense. The defense will provide some turnovers, and the ground and pound of the 49ers should cover the spread of 10 at home.   The Pick: 49ers -10 for 1 Unit

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Reds @ Giants Betting Preview

Reds @ Giants -125: I like the Giants for a few strange reasons. First off, the Giants are 62-36 in night games, compared to 58-47 in night games for the Reds. Cain is also known as a showtime performer. 2 years ago, the last time the Giants were in the playoffs, he went 21 1/3 innings, without allowing 1 ER. Matt Cain is also a much better home pitcher, posting a 2.03 ERA at home, compared to 3.56 away. However, Cain has been hit hard this season by the Reds, giving up a 5.52 ERA against them this season. The Reds are also hitting a lifetime .261 against him. He has pitched well of late, but I think the Reds have his number. Cueto meanwhile, has historically struggled at night, posting a 3.65 ERA. He has pitched well in his last 3 games, but he has yet to face a playoff team since June, where he coincidentally lost 5-0 to Giants. The Giants are also hitting career .312 average against Cueto. I love over in this one, both names look like a under play, but really they are pitching in non-optimal environments. O 6.5 2 UNITS.

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 A's @ Tigers Betting Preview

  A's @ Tigers -1.5 +116: Well, after going 4-0 in baseball on wild card day, I take my talents to motor city (yes that was a LBJ reference if you struggle with Internet sarcasm.) The A's are hot right now, winning their last 5 games in order to win their respective division. However, I think that will overrate them. The A's have a very balanced staff, and believe it or not, that is not as important in the playoffs. Most MLB teams use a 3 team rotation for 5 game series, with 2 pitchers pitching on short rest. That means that the A's balanced staff will become a weakness against the top heavy rotation of the Tigers. The A's send out rookie Jarrod Parker, Parker is far from an ace, and has a 1.26 WHIP. WHIP is  a good stat to measure a pitchers pre dominance, as it just accounts hits and walks (WHIP=Walks+Hits in Innings Pitched.) Parker gave up .261 average to Detroit hitters in 5.2 IP in his only start against them. One thing benefiting Parker is his recent starts against elite offences. He has given up no more than 3 ER and in no less than 6 IP against Tex, Tex, NYY, Bal, LAA, LAA. Those are some tough O's. The problem that I have with the A's is their reliance on the HR ball. They rank 28th in the MLB in BA (while playing in the AL) and 24th in on base %. Against Verlander, they will not be able to go yard to often. In his 33 starts, he has only given up 19 HR total. For those of us who struggle with math, that is around .7 HR a game. Verlander also has a 1.06 WHIP to boast. To top it off the A's have a combined 110 ABs against Verlander, and a .164 average and 1 HR. I predict the A's will get shutout, and despite solid pitching from Parker, the Tigers should be able to put up a few. Tigers -1.5 +116 for 1 Unit. U 7.5 for 3 units. 

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NCAAF Week 6 Picks/Betting Preview

Texas (-7) vs. West Virginia (+ 7)  

 Time for a dose of reality for Geno Smith and the West Virginia Mountaineers. Even though both teams are in the Big 12, Baylor is light years away from this 2012 Texas Longhorn team, and we think that it will reflect in West Virginia's performance Saturday. Yes, West Virginia's offense did have perhaps one of the greatest performances last Saturday, lead by Geno Smith's 8 Td's. However, what largely goes unnoticed, is that they also gave up 63 points to a unranked team in Baylor. In addition, the Longhorns give up only 21 yards a game, compared to West Virginia's previous opponent, Baylor, who gives up 40! It should be a rude awakening for the Mountaineers, as the Longhorns balanced attack, and experienced defense should give them the significant edge in this one. You might look at this line, and be scared that Texas's offense is not explosive enough to cover this -7 spread, but don't forget that these Longhorns are 9th in total offense, and have a 3 headed monster running attack that features former #1 highschool running back recruits, Jonathan Gray and Malcolm Brown, to go along with the explosive Joe Bergeron.  The Pick: Texas (-7) for 2 units


Michigan (-3) vs. Purdue (+3)

Trap!  While Michigan hasn't had the best showing so far this season, they're not this bad. Michigan lost to an undefeated Notre Dame game by only 7 points, with turning the ball over 5 times! Had a couple of those errant passes not been picked off, we would be looking at a 3-1 Michigan team that would still be in contention for a BCS bowl. Purdue has started the year off impressively, but with inexperienced starter Caleb Turbish, you can't trust their offense to put numbers up on the board. Meanwhile for Michigan, their quarterback Denard Robinson has had strong games against average defenses throughout his career, however has also had many horrendous performances when put in front of an elite defense. Fortunately for him, this Purdue defense is not elite, and is nothing compared to Alabama's or Notre Dame's, so he should be able to pick apart their secondary for big plays on more than one occasion.    The Pick: Michigan -3 for 2 units.  

South Carolina (-1.5) vs. Georgia (+1.5)

Aaron Murray and the Georgia Bulldogs will head down to South Carolina to take on the Gamecocks. The only clear advantage that South Carolina has in this game is their defense. One would think that Marcus Lattimore and the Gamecocks would have the advantage in running the football, however Lattimore has looked average this year, and their 172 rushing yards per game is far less than Georgia's 250 per game that has mainly come from freshman stud Todd Gurley who is averaging 8 yards a carry so far. Meanwhile, Georgia quarterback Aaron Murray is looking better than ever, and is generating some heisman talks, as he is currently boasting a career high 68.2 completion percentage and 183.5 QB rating. Georgia is the Gamecock's first real test, and look for the Bulldogs to put up bigger numbers than most expect, and come away with victory against a South Carolina team that hasn't looked so impressive at times this year.  The Pick: Georgia +1.5 for 3 units. 


Ohio St. (-3) vs. Nebraska (+3)

Nebraska will be on the road on this one, taking on the undefeated Ohio State Buckeyes. Nebraska themselves, are 4-1, with their only loss coming against UCLA, in a game where they didn't have their starting running back Rex Burkhead. Nebraska's defense is a tough one, especially against the run, and will force Braxton Miller out of his comfort zone and make him pass the ball. That's where things will get tough for the Buckeyes offense, as they rank outside of the top 100 in total pass offense. Meanwhile, on the offensive side of the ball, Nebraska has been crisp and efficient lead by a much improved Taylor Martinez, and a tough workhorse in Rex Burkhead. If they can take care of the ball, and limit Braxton Millers big plays, Nebraska has the chance to pull of the upset in Columbus.  The Pick: Nebraska (+3) for 1 unit


LSU (-2.5) vs. Florida (+2.5) 

This game will be held in Gainesville, and it would be blasphemous to bet against Gators in this one. The Tigers of LSU have looked pedestrian in their last two games, as they were tested by both Auburn and a sub-par Towson team. Florida's offense looked sharp in their win over Tennessee, and quarterback Jeff Driskel has had a nice 2012 campaign so far. At running back, they have speedster Mike Gillislee, who is averaging nearly 6 yards per carry this year. Meanwhile, LSU has an elite defense that is giving up a little over 12 points a game, however they also have an offense that ranks only 95th in passing, and that can also be atrocious at times. With this game almost certain to be low-scoring, each point is important, so take Florida and points in this one.   The Pick: Florida +2.5 for 1 unit. 


UTEP (-2.5) vs. SMU +2.5

These teams have both had a horrible start to this season, with SMU being 1-3, and UTEP 1-4. While UTEP has had some decent performances in these losses, it isn't convincing enough to have them as the 2.5 point favorites against a team that nearly knocked off TCU last week. Take the points and SMU.   The Pick: SMU +2.5 for 1 unit


Oklahoma (-4) vs. Texas Tech (+4)

The Sooners are coming off a tough loss against an underrated Kansas St. team, while the Red Raiders proved that they are legit, after last week's victory over Iowa St. The Red Raiders offense led by senior quarterback Seth Doege, have been extremely efficient thus far, and are 7th in passing offense and 11th in total offense. Doege currently boasts a whopping 72 completeion percentage and has 15 TD's and only 3 interceptions to go along with it. Meanwhile, on defense, the Red Raiders are stifling opponents with their defense that ranks 5th overall. Oklahoma hasn't looked nearly as impressive, with QB Landry Jones off to a pedestrian start. We like Texas Tech and points in this one.    The Pick: Texas Tech (+4) for 1 unit.


 Missouri (-7) vs. Vanderbilt (+7)

Missouri will take on Vanderbilt on Saturday night at home. Missouri is nothing special, as they don't rank inside the top 50 in any major categories. Vanderbilt's defense meanwhile, ranks 46th and is giving up only 22 points a game despite having to play two tough SEC offenses in Georgia and South Carolina. Missouri's offense has not scored more than 24 points in their last 4 games, so -7 sounds like a little too much on the spread.    The Pick: Vanderbilt +7 for 1 unit

Clemson (-10.5) vs. Georgia Tech (10.5)

Clemson's offense led by quarterback Tajh Boyd, is an explosive one, and has scored 40+ points in 4 of their 5 games this season. They should have no trouble covering the spread in this one against a struggling 2-3 Georgia Tech team, that is coming off a 21 point loss to Middle Tennessee.   The Pick: Clemson -10.5 for 1 unit.

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 Baltimore @ Texas Rangers

Red hot. That's 8 in a row for SGS, assuming that the Cardinals can hold their 3 run lead. Worst case, 7-1 ain't too shabby. Tonight, in our second wild card game Orioles head to Texas to take on the Rangers. Let's start off with pitchers, Yu Darvish is on the mound for Texas, since August 6th, Yu has started 8 games, gong 7.2 innings average, and has a 100% QS rate. He has also faced 5 of the best offences in the MLB, the Tigers, Rays twice, and the Angels twice. That shows he is not a flash in the pan (see Medlon, Kris). The Orioles send out a lefty specialist in Joe Saunders, who has 5 QS out of last 7 starts. He also only as a HR rate of only .8 a game, and a walk rate of 1.6 per nine innings. The problem with Saunders is that he is giving up a .300 average this season. It should be noted that the Rangers are primarily a lefty based team. But what if the Orioles go all out, and do what I am predicting, sending Saunders out for 3 innings. The O's have a bullpen that is 3rd in the MLB allowing 3.00 runs per 9 innings. Let's face it, Joe Saunders is not very likely to carry the Orioles to a W, I think they will stick with their biggest advantage over virtually every team in the MLB, their bullpen. I think that will work to keep these Texas hitters on their heals, but Yu will also pitch fantastic as he has of late. I am going to predict a 2-1 final, meaning I like the Orioles +1.5 at even odds, especially with Texas being at home, meaning if they are up by one run in the ninth the Orioles will more than likely cover. It also prevents a Texas walk off hit from winning the bet for Texas -1.5 betters. That -1.5 for home teams is the biggest trap in all of betting. ORIOLES +1.5 FOR 2 UNITS U 9 FOR 1 UNIT.

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 MLB WILDCARD PICKS Cardinals vs. Braves

Cardinals @ Braves -172: In this one game format, anyone can win. Both teams will throw the kitchen sink, the question is who's sink is better. The line clearly shows that the public think the Braves have a MUCH better sink. Kris Medlen, in case you haven't followed baseball too closely this year, has a 1.57 ERA and 0.91 WHIP. He would have been the easy CY Young winner if he would have started in the first half of the season. I think that # is to generous. In his starts this year he has faced, MIA, HOU, NYM, SD, WSH, SD, COL, NYM, WSH, MIA, MIA, NYM. Red means bottom 1/4 in runs this year. You should obviously see that there is an insane amount of red. The greens are offences in the top 1/3 in runs. Plus this is Medlen's first clutch game, because by the time the Braves were at the all-star break, it was pretty clear they would be in the playoffs. The Cardinals are also the 4th best offensive team in the MLB over the year. Kyle Lohse also is on the mound for the Cardinals, and although his 2.81 ERA may not be accurate of how good he has been recently, I also think he will struggle, in his only start against Atlanta this year, he has given up .401 BA and 5 runs in 5 innings. The Braves are also hitting a combined .319 against Lohse in their respective careers. I think the stats illistrate that O 6.5 is clearly the right play, despite the SP's ERA, they are not as good as the ERA's indicate. I also think that the Cardinals are worth a small play @ +163, mostly because 2 playoff teams shouldn't be that highly favored over another. CARDS +163 FOR 1 UNIT TO WIN 1.5 AND 0VER 6.5 FOR 3 UNITS. CHECK BACK FOR UPCOMING CFB PICKS, AND LATE MLB PICK.

 

 

Thursday Night Football Game/Betting Preview

Let's face it. The NFL got so lucky with this match up. Their ratings would be way down, if the Cardinals were (0-4) like they were supposed to be at this point in the season. Instead we get a solid Thursday Night treat, as Arizona Cardinals head to St. Louis to take on the Rams. Now the Cardinals may be the worst undefeated team in history. They are 25th in the NFL in passing, 29th in rushing, 21st best pass D, and 15th best run D. They would be extremely lucky start of the season to be 2-2, let alone 4-0. Last week, the Cardinals bread and butter defence allowed 431 passing yards from the worst QB in the NFL right now (Ryan Tannehill)... that was also at home. Now they head to the 28th ranked passing O in the NFL, but that doesn't tell the entire story. They have faced 3 top 10 pass D's in the NFL (@Bears, Seahawks, Lions), when they played the Redskins, the worst pass D in the NFL, they put up 300 yards through the air. Bottom line, the Rams pass offense is not as bad as 28th in the NFL, that is with some very tough games. The Cardinals have also only played one game on the road this year (in which they won 20-18 with 242 yards at the Pats), but last year, they were 2-6 on the road, and 6-2 at home. This is virtually the same team as last year, they didn't all the sudden learn to play on the road. Meanwhile, the Rams are 2-0 at home this year against 2 solid teams, the Redskins and Seahawks. I think that the Rams 1-7 record at home last year was a fluke, most of their team was hurt, especially Sam Bradford, I look at their solid record in 2010, with a 5-3 record at home, and 2-6 on road. The Rams also rank 2nd in the NFL with 8 INTs, and with INTs, comes good field position, which leads me to my next point, Greg Zuerlein. Greg has hit 12 field goals through this year, and 3 from over 50 yards. He is a huge factor, because the Cardinals are known to play close games, and in close games one field goal can be the difference between a win and a loss. In fact, theoretically if each team the Cardinals have played just had one more field goal, the Cardinals would be 2-2 or even 1-3. Also, despite his weak start to the season, Steven Jackson ran very well last week, rushing for 55 good yards. The # don't display how good he actually ran against a top 5 run D, he actually should have ran for around 100 if he broke a tackle or two in the open field. The Rams also have one of the best CB in the NFL, Cortland Finnegan, I think Finnegan will shut down Fitzgerald, which will allow them to double Andre Roberts...So now what for Kolb. No run game, and 2 top WR shut down, playing away from home. Cardinals will prove why they are just a flash in the pan, just look at the facts. Cardinals 10 Rams 20. RAMS +1 FOR 2 UNITS U 39.5 FOR 5 UNITS.

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 Udinese vs Liverpool Betting Preview

Udinese heads to Liverpool in the UEFA Europa League. Both these teams are really off to some rough starts in their respective leagues. Liverpool comes in at 1-2-3 nearing the bottom of the Premier League with only 5 points.  Udinese go in at 1-3-2 also in the bottom half of Serie A with only 6 points.  Most people are going to see Liverpool as a dominant force in the Premier League, but this team is not what they used to be.  Their entire offense revolves around Luis Suarez who has 5 goals to start the year and has established himself as one of the best forwards in the world. With this being a rather easy group for Liverpool to advance in, Udinese needs, at the very least a draw, due to their lack of fantastic talent. Udinese is coming off a hard fought draw against Russian team Anzhi Makhachkala. Liverpool on the other hand, is coming off a 5-3 beating of Swedish team Young Boys. With a big match up this weekend, it looks unlikely that winning the Europa league will be a top priority for the infamous Liverpool squad. Liverpool will be without Lucas Leiva and Jose Enrique for certain, Udinese doesn't have any injuries of note. Liverpool manager Brendan Rodgers will also likely sit superstars Luis Suarez, Daniel Agger, and Steven Gerard. It remains to be seen what Udinese will do with their lineup, as they have a tough match up against Napoli later this week. Nonetheless, Liverpool is 9-4-0 at Anfield in the Europa league in there past 3 years, while Udinese have just won 1 of their last 9 games away, but have drawn 5. Liverpool is not known for their defensive mentality, and if Di Natale, one of the premier strikers in Italy, gets the start I could see Udinese getting a nice 2-2 draw away from home, to give the team some momentum heading into a huge league match. 1 UNIT ON UDINESE +0.5 GOALS TO WIN 1.5 AND 2 UNITS ON O 2.5.

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SGS Betting Review 10/2/12

College Football: + 11 units total (+11 past week)

Pro Football: + 4 units total (+4 past week)

Other: -1 units total (-1 so far this week; none made last week)

Total: +14 units total (+15 past week) (-1 so far this week)
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 Monday Night Pick Bears vs. Cowboys
 

The Bears defense will look to shutdown Tony Romo

Bears vs. Cowboys -3.5: The Cowboys are favored in this game, because they are at home, and not because they are the superior team. The thing that the oddsmakers forgot to take in account, is that because the game will be played in Dallas, it will be played in the dome. This will give Jay Cutler a huge advantage, and make one of the strongest arms in football even stronger in the dome's ideal conditions. Cutler is used to playing in windy cities like Chicago and Denver, so playing in the dome will be like paradise for him. It will take only one tiny lapse in Dallas's secondary for Cutler to beat them for a big play, and because of Chicago's fierce defense, one big play might just be sufficient to get the job done. Look for the Bears to pressure Romo early and often and cause him to make mistakes like he has done for his whole career. There's no way you can take the Cowboys here and lay the spread. The Pick: Bears +3.5 for 4 units (high confidence pick, average bet is 1 unit)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 Monday Soccer Plays

Getafe vs. Mallorca: Well, after winning 11 units this weekend, we turn our attention to a little soccer betting. We like to bet real football on weekends, and a little futbal on weekdays. We turn our focus to a Spanish league BBVA match up between Getafe vs. Mallorca. A quick look at the tables doesn’t tell the real stories of these teams. Getafe is 1-1-3, but they have faced some huge challenges early. In their first game they played Sevilla, a top 5 BBVA team, even on the road, but lost 2-1. They then proceeded to beat Real Madrid 2-1 at home, and then tied a slightly below average Deportivo team on the road, before getting pounded at Barcelona, and losing a evenly played game at #13 Celta. Simply put, Getafe has played the strong schedule, but if they had been given a bounce or two, could be 2-2-1. Mallorca on the other hand has yet to play Barca or either Madrid so far this season. To top that off, they have played an extremely weak schedule, in which they almost lost, at home, to the winless boys from Espanyols, they then proceeded to tie a top tier team at Malaga. It should be noted though that they lost the possession battle 66-34. They then beat a solid Real-Sociedad team at home; Sociedad is a notoriously bad away team though, going 0-3-0 on the road this season. They then lost the possession battle 60-40 away in a tie against current #18 Osasuna, and last game, they won the game, yet lost possession 70-30 at home against mighty top tier Valencia. The possession numbers don’t lie, and they prove that Mallorca shouldn’t be the #4 team in the BBVA standings right now. They have been outplayed every game, and have yet to even come close to winning a possession battle. As some say, 90% of soccer is possession, and Getafe should prove me true tomorrow. 2 UNITS TO WIN 2.5 UNITS ON GETFAE 1X2.

There is another game from a big futbal division, as EPL features West Ham taking on QPR. West Ham is 2-2-1 so far, going 0-1-1 on the road so far. Although West Ham has had a easy schedule so far, they still are #8 with 1 less game played than all other teams. QPR on the other hand has faced 3 top 5 teams in Chelsea, Man City, and Tottenham. I think this game will end in a 0-0 draw. West Ham has yet to score a goal on the road, even at #19 Norwich they couldn’t find the back of the net, in fact Norwich dominated them 20 shots to 9, and struggled to get a mere 7 shots against Swansea. To make things weirder, West Ham has out shot their opponent every time this year while playing at home, which shows they clearly have problems on the road. QPR was able to draw and play Chelsea equal 0-0 at home, and they should have gotten a much closer result at home against Swansea, where Swansea scored 5 goals on 12 shots. QPR has yet to score at home, West Ham has yet to score on the road, 0-0 draw is my prediction. ½ UNIT on DRAW TO WIN 1.5 UNITS AND 3 UNITS ON UNDER 2.5. 

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SUNDAY NIGHT PICK 9/30/12

Well, well, well. If you have been following us this week, we won 11 units on college football and lost 2 units in NFL football. (So far...) The record might not be too stunning, but keep in mind we did win a solid 9 units this weekend, which is 9 times more than an average bet made. As we head into the final pick for the weekend, we have a Sunday Night Football match up of Giants +2.5 @ Eagles. Little known fact, the Giants are 33-13 on the road over the last few years. They are 1 game over .500 at home during the same stretch. Be aware though, this is a solid line, the Giants may struggle moving the ball without their number 1 WR Hakeem Nicks, although they have Ramses Barden to step in, they still will miss one of the best WR in the league, regardless of how well Barden has been of late. The Giants are also missing a solid RT in David Diehl. However, I feel the thing that makes the Giants the favorite this week, is the fact that they have yet to play since September 20th, 10 days ago. Also the Eagles 2 wins this season have been by a total of 17-16 against the Browns, and 24-23 against the Ravens. I believe this makes the 2.5 points given worth taking for the Giants, rather than going with the money line play. There is no definitive perfect play in this game, but I feel I small bet on the Giants has a solid chance to be profitable. Giants +2.5 for 1 unit UNDER 46 for 1 unit. 

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College Football Week 5 Betting Preview/Game Predictions

Thursday 9:00 P.M Stanford (8) vs. Washington

 I have to take Stanford here after a impressive win over a talented USC squad. Washington has some young talent but could not put up much of a fight against LSU. They have some potential in a couple years. We think they'll be able to cover the spread. The Spread Pick: Stanford -7 for 3 UNITS

Saturday 12:00 P.M Baylor (25) vs. West Virginia (9)

     Baylor has done a good job recruiting after Robert Griffin III has left but had some problems against upset minded Louisiana Monroe and barely got the W. The Mountaineers and Heisman Candidate Geno Smith have a high powered offense that should beat Baylor pretty easily.  The Spread Pick: WVU -11 for 3 UNITS

Saturday 3:30 P.M Georgia (5) vs. Tennessee

      Georgia has looked might impressive this year, with Aaron Murray finally living up to expectations. But the Volunteers haven't been to shabby themselves, a lone loss coming from a strong Florida team. This will surely be a shoot out but I like Tyler Bray to out throw Murray for an upset win.  The Spread Pick: Tennessee +14 for 5 UNITS

Saturday 3:30 P.M Ohio State (16) vs. Michigan State (20)

     Braxton Miller has turned out to be a perfect fit for the Urban Meyer offense and just give him a little room, and he is gone. Michigan State has not shown up to play this year, losing to Notre Dame and struggling against Eastern Michigan, which should be an easy win. Miller should put up some Heisman like numbers on the ground and through the air and the Buckeyes should beat out the Spartans, despite being the 2 point underdogs. The Spread Pick: OSU +2 for 5 UNITS

Saturday 7:50 P.M Texas (12) vs. Oklahoma State

      O.K State hasn't lost the offensive output since Brandon Weeden left, they are averaging 62 points a game. The problem is on the other side of the ball where they have given up 27 points a game and they will have some problems with David Ash and Jaxon Shipley of the Longhorns. This will be a high scoring affair and Texas will come out victorious, and cover the -1 spread. The Spread Pick: Texas -1 for 7 UNITS

Saturday 8:00 P.M Nebraska (22) vs. Wisconsin

    Both of these teams have had some troubles against lesser opponents, Wisconsin losing to Oregon State, and Nebraska losing to UCLA. However, people forget that Nebraska was missing several key players in that loss. Although Montee Ball of the Badgers is a versatile and skilled runner, it has shown that the loss of Russel Wilson has really hurt, because Ball is unable to carry his team. The other star running back in this matchup is Rex Burkhead who returned from a sprained left knee last week against Idaho State ran for 119 yards and two touchdowns. When healthy, Nebraska can compete with the best of them. This should be a ground and pound game that Nebraska wins. Nebraska is currently the 12 point favorites. We like them by 2 touchdowns. The Spread Pick: Nebraska -12 for 4 UNITS

Saturday 10:00 P.M Oregon State (18) vs. Arizona

    Oregon State has started out the season strong with two solid wins over ranked opponents when Arizona has dropped out of the rankings. If the Beaver's defense can hold up against a stagnant Wildcats offense, then the win should go to Oregon State. The Spread Pick: Oregon St. +3 for 2UNITS

Saturday 10:30 P.M Oregon (2) vs. Washington State

     The Ducks continue to have a constant flow of speedy wide receivers and running backs who spread the field constantly. De'Anthony Thomas will gash the Cougars defense all night and the Ducks should coast to victory to improve their undefeated record. After crushing Arizona by 49, they should cover the spread 31 point spread against a much worse Washington St. team. The Spread Pick: Oregon -31 for 2 UNITS

Saturday 7:00 P.M TCU (15) vs. SMU

      The Horned Frogs are entering this contest as the 16.5 point favorites, however don't expect SMU to go down without a fight. Like all bitter rivals in sports, SMU will certainly be amped up for this one. Even though it doesn't hold any extra significance on a computer system, you can bet that both teams will come out a little stronger in this one. TCU's quarterback Casey Pachall has started the year off on a hot note, as he is currently boasting 8 td's to only 1 interception. Meanwhile, SMU's quarterback Garrett Gilbert hasn't had much to celebrate, but this could be the breakout performance that proves that he deserved his #2 QB ranking in the nation coming out of high school. This one will be a dogfight, and in the end I see SMU pulling off a shocker. The Spread Pick: SMU +17.5 for 4 UNITS

Saturday 12:21 P.M Texas A&M vs. Arkansas

         It's been a tough year for the Razorbacks thus far, however this game is a chance for them to get back on the right track. QB Tyler Wilson is an elite talent, and should be 100% healthy by now. Texas A&M are the 13.5 point favorites in this one, but this is because Arkansas has yet to display their best football. Look for Tyler Wilson to have a good game, and Arkansas to edge out Texas A&M.    The Spread Pick: Arkansas +13.5 for 3 UNITS

Texas Tech vs. Iowa St: Texas Tech has looked fantastic this year, and is off to a scorching 3-0 start, where they haven't been tested. We think they will cover the -1 spread against an overrated Texas Tech team. The Spread Pick: Texas Tech -1 for 3 UNITS

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NFL Week 4 Betting Preview

A NFL pick against the spread is like a child. You could relay on a professional babysitter to raise it, you could also try and raise a child without any experience in hopes of being as good as the babysitter, or you could just watch some reality television to learn how to raise your first baby boy or girl. To compare this to betting, you could listen to me, and know you will make money. I am like the professional babysitter, you may not want to rely on me too much, but in the end, you know that I know what I am doing. If you are trying to start betting for the first time, there will be some guaranteed bumps in the road, similar to raising a first-born child. However, if you raise all your children, by the time you hit number 4, you will be as good as the professional babysitter. If you just watch some highlights, and make your picks based off them, you would be the equivalent of learning how to raise a child from reality television. You only see the highlights and low lights, you don’t see that the Cardinals should have had 175 rushing yards rather than 130, because of 2 huge negative broken down plays, or that Kevin Kolb had 150 of his 300 yards passing off of screens. Highlights can’t show you every key play; they can only show you the OMG moments. I know when I have my first child; I will be hiring an extremely qualified babysitter to watch him.

 Browns @  Ravens -12 : The sexy pick here is to take the Browns. It is always great to come into work after calling an upset. However, the sexy pick is almost never the right pick. The Ravens have won 13 in a row at home dating back to last year. The Browns on the other hand have yet to win a division game on the road in 11 straight. To make it worse, Cleveland is missing their top WR in Mohamed Massaquoi. The Ravens also are playing tremendous offence in comparison to there past few years. They have scored 44 and 31 points in their two previous home games. They have also played 3 top AFC teams so far in the Eagles, Patriots, and Bengles. They are going from facing Brady and Vick to Brandon Weeden. This one could be ugly. A small concern for the Ravens is they have given up 290 yards average per game through the first 3 weeks. But, I will point out that was against 3 top 10 pass offences this year. The Browns have played some close ball games this year, but have yet to play on a weekday this year, and have a short week to prepare for one of the best defenses in the league.  3 UNITS ON BALT -12

Chargers @ Chiefs +1: Two of the best Ds in the league square off as the Chargers visit the Chiefs. The Chargers have had the luxury of playing 3 teams (Falcons, Titans and Raiders.) These 3 teams are all lower than 25^th in the NFL in total rushing yards. Now they head to one of the hardest places to play, Arrowhead stadium, and face the number one ranked rushing attack in the NFL. Jamaal Charles is also coming off a monstrous performance of 233 rushing yards. It seams he is finally starting to trust his legs after his ACL tear from last year.  The Chargers just saw 3 straight change ups, and the chiefs are the 100 mph fastball. It will be almost impossible for the Chargers to adjust, especially after being blown out at home 27-3 against the Falcons.  The Chargers are known for their struggles kicking off the season, and I think the trend will continue. 2 UNITS ON CHIEFS +1

Patriots @ Bills +4: I like the Pats this week, I think that the public is underestimating the importance of CJ Spiller, and with Fred Jackson just returning from a sprained knee, the Bills will hardly have a run game. That could present a large problem for a Bills team who is currently heavily favoring the run. The Bills are currently 26^th in the NFL is passing yards, therefore if the Pats get a lead,  the Bills will have a hard to catching up with their lack of passing firepower. I think the stat that is currently most telling about the Bills, is they are 19^th in the NFL in OPP. Passing yards. That may not sound bad, however the Bills have faced Mark Sanchez, Matt Cassel, and Brandon Weeden, probably the worst group of QB that any team has faced thus far. I also love the Pats, because of the simple fact that this is a must win game. Tom Brady and Bill Belichick have always just seemed to have an uncanny ability to win games with their backs against the wall. They respond well to adversity, and I think Bill’s 50K fine this week will only motivate them more. The Pats should take this one easily. 3 UNITS ON THE PATS -4

Dolphins @ Cardinals -6: This is purely a public-based line. There is no way that the Cardinals should be 6-point favorites against the Dolphins.  I understand that the Cardinals are a solid team, but they are still 27^th in passing yards and 29^th in rushing yards. In a low scoring defensive battle, 6 points is way too much to give a solid team. The Dolphins live and die on the ground, and it looks like Reggie Bush will play, meaning the Dolphins should also own the time of possession due to there running mentality. Especially with the Cardinals missing Beanie Wells, I can’t see them scoring more that 13 points against a very good Dolphins team. So the question becomes can the Cardinals hold the Dolphins just to 6 points? I think that is an easy no, too much ground and pound. DOLPHINS +6 FOR 3 UNITS.

Saints @ Packers -9: I could rehash everything I said in my BOLD PREDICTION article, so you can check that out here, http://mensgs.blogspot.com/2012/09/fantasy-football-week-4-5-bold.html, but basically the Saints have not been able to stop the QB’s from the Lingerie football league. Yet alone the CFL. Yet alone the NFL. This is a trap line, a line that looks like it is just easy money, but it really isn’t. The Saints are a popular team, but they have always struggled away from Domes’ and have been just awful this year. Don’t fall for the trap. PACKERS-9 FOR 3 UNITS.