MNF Pick

San Francisco -7 for 2 Units

World Series Game 4 Pick

Tigers vs Giants: Tigers 4 Units to get 3 Units.....series still has potential to get interesting

NFL week 8 Picks

Jaguars vs. Green Bay: Jags +16 for 3 Units (jordy's out)

Eagles vs. Falcons: Falcons +3 for 2 Units

Titans vs. Colts: Titans -3.5 for 1 Unit

Chargers vs. Browns: Chargers -3 for 7 Units

Patriots vs. Rams: Patriots -7.5 for 2 Units

Seahawks vs. Lions: Lions -2.5 for 1 Unit

Dolphins vs. Jets: Dolphins +1 for 0.5 Units

Bears vs. Panthers: Chicago -8.5 for 2 Units

Steelers vs. Redskins: Steelers -4 for 1 Unit

Oakland vs. Chiefs: Raiders +1 for 2 Units

Giants vs. Cowboys: Giants -1.5 for 2 Units

Saints vs. Broncos: Saints +6.5 for 3 Units

NCAAF Week 9 Picks

We're going to do a pick'em style this week

Purdue vs. Minnesota U: The Pick: Purdue -2.5 for 3 Units

FSU vs. Duke: The Pick: Duke +27.5 for 1 Unit

MSU vs. Wisconsin: The Pick: MSU +5.5 for 3 Units

Florida vs. Georgia:  The Pick: Georgia +6.5 for 2 Units; Over 44.5 for 1 Unit

USC vs. Arizona: The Pick: USC -5.5 for 0.5 Units

Ohio St. vs. Penn St.: The Pick: Ohio St -1 for 3 Units

Texas Tech vs KSU: The Pick: Texas Tech +7 for 1 Unit

TCU vs. Oklahoma St.: TCU +7 for 1 Unit

Notre Dame vs. Oklahoma: Oklahoma -12.5 for 1 Unit

Michigan vs. Nebraska: This one is going to be a great game for all of you who don't have any interest in Notre Dame football.....however look elsewhere for a pick in this one....line is Nebraska -1, and the oddsmakers got it exactly right. True Coin toss

SGS Betting Review (as of Tuesday)

MLB: Past Week: -10 Units; (0-4) 0%

MLB: Overall: +1.5 Units (14-14) 50%

NFL: Past Week: +14 Units (10-5) 66%

NFL: Overall: +27 Units (28-14) 66.7%

NCAAF: Past Week: -7 Units (4-7) 36.4%

NCAAF Overall: +2 Units (19-21) 47.5%

Soccer: Past Week: No Change
Soccer: Overall: +2.5 Units (3-2) 60%

Tennis: Past Week: No change
Tennis: Overall: -2.5 Units (0-1) 0%

UFC Past Week: No change
UFC Overall: -6.5 Units 

Past Week Total: -3 Units (14-16) 46.67%
Overall Total: +24 Units (64-52) 55.2%

World Series Game 2 Pick and MNF Pick

World Series: Tigers straight up for 2 Units; Bumgarner's inexperience should play a factor

MNF: Buccaneers +5.5 for 3 Units; Buccaneers to win game 2 Units to win 5 Units

Fall Classic

                            Giant Series
The Tigers are the odds-makes favorites, but the Giants are no team to sleep on.

World Series Preview/Game 1 Pick>>

Bears vs. Lions

Windy City Clash

 

     MNF Pick>>  

Crunch Time

Both the Giants and Cardinals will have their Ace on the mound Monday, but which team has the edge?

The Pick>>

DS UPDATE

Finished 4th yesterday to win $3.80. Joining a $5 HU based on our own rankings. Hopefully I can tun this train around.

                                     Sunday Funday
                          Fantasy Start 'em Sit 'em>>  Week 7 Picks>>


                                                                         

Bye Week Pandemonium? No Problem SGS Fantasy Has you Covered

Fantasy>>  Rankings: QB>>  RB>> WR>>  TE>>  K>>  Start 'em/Sit 'em>>

Fantasy Football Start 'Em/ Sit 'Em Week 7

Start 'Em

Chris Johnson - Yes, he's had a tough go at it so far this season, however the former fantasy stud has a good chance to re-emerge as a top tier fantasy back with a tasty matchup against the Bills, who are dead last in rush defense

Doug Martin - Martin has been pretty good for owners this season, and against a Saints defense that ranks 31st in rushing defense, the outlook looks even better for his owners.

Jay Cutler - Cutler has looked better and better as the season has gone one, and he's up against a Detroit defense that gives up the big play often.

Brandon Marshall - He will be the main beneficiary of Cutler's monster game

Felix Jones - With Demarco Murray out, Jones will receive a large work-load against a sub-par Carolina Defense

Tony Romo - Romo will look to air it out against a weak Carolina secondary, and he should be successful in doing so

Fred Jackson - Yes, he splits carries, however if your stuck with lots of byes, Jackson is a great start. Tennessee doesn't put up many points, so the Bills will be running the ball all game.

Denarius Moore - He leads the Raiders in targets and has a great match-up against the league's worst pass defense, the Jaguars.

Carson Palmer - Darius Heyward-Bey and Denarius Moore have too much speed for the Jags secondary, so Palmer will have many opportunities to torch them. 

Stevan Ridley - The Patriots will most likely have a comfortable lead against the Jets early, so Ridley should see an increased workload.




Sit 'Em

Joe Flacco: In case you didn’t hear, HOU D is pretty darn good. Joe is not a QB you can start against anyone.

Cam Newton: Ice cold as of late, Dallas has a good pass rush, and they should keep him in check.

Matt Stafford: One year wonder? Hopefully not, but I doubt he will have a huge game against the Bears secondary. Remember fantasy QB’s don’t get points for throwing a TD the other way.

Russell Wilson: See Flacco, Joe.

Steven Jackson: Has done nothing of note this season, seems to be in a RB by committee, and the Rams will need to throw to stay with the Pack. Don’t be that guy who starts a bust till week 13.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis: Rumor has it that PIT has a good run D. A very good run D.

Michael Bush: Bush is running well, but DET actually has a very good run D. Better options available.

Brandon Lloyd/ Wes Welker: Jets have great CB play, and the Pats will look to get the ball to their TE.

Josh Gordon: Only start if you play the Mega Millions lottery.

Anquan Boldin:: HOU can play D I have heard.

Steve Smith: Newton struggling=Smith struggling.

Brandon Pettigrew: Drop his ass. I see my 8 year old cousin catch more passes in the backyard.

Jermichael Finley: Bad this year, don’t start him just because you took him to early in your draft. TE is very deep.

Shonn Greene: He's coming off a great week, however he will have to face a well-coached New England team that will make stopping the run a priority. If the Jets get down early, they'll probably abandon the run.

Fantasy Football RB Rankings - Week 7

1. Arian Foster
2. Darren McFadden
3. Maurice Jones-Drew
 4. Chris Johnson
5. Trent Richardson
6. Adrian Peterson
7.  Felix Jones
8. Doug Martin
9. Ray Rice
10. Alfred Morris
11. CJ Spiller
12. Matt Forte
13. Ahmad Bradshaw
14. Steven Ridley
15. Fred Jackson
16. Alex Green
17. Shonn Greene
18. Darren Sproles
19. Mikel Leshore
20. Michael Bush

Fantasy TE Rankings Week 7

1. Rob Gronkowski
2. Aaron Hernandez
3. Jason Witten
4. Owen Daniels
5. Kyle Rudolph
6. Scott Chandler
7. Jermichael Finley
8. Jermaine Gresham
9. Martellus Bennett
10. Heath Miller
11. Greg Olsen
12. Jared Cook
13.Fred Davis
14. Dennis Pitta
15. Brandon Pettigrew
16. Dwayne Allen
 17. Kellen Davis
18. Brandon Myers
19. Dustin Keller
20. Marcedes Lewis

Fantasy Kicker Rankings Week 7

1. Stephen Gostkowski
2. Sebastian Janikowski
3. Lawrence Tynes
4. David Akers
5. Mason Crosby
6. Garrett Hartley
7. Rob Bironas
8. Shayne Graham
9. Robbie Gould
10. Blair Walsh (he tweeted Andy Roddick)

Fantasy WR Rankings Week 7

1. Brandon Marshall
2. AJ Green
3. Victor Cruz
4. Calvin Johnson
5. Wes Welker
6. Larry Fitzgerald
7. Hakeem Nicks
8. Marques Colston
9. Percy Harvin
10. Andre Johnson
11. Dez Bryant
12. Jordy Nelson
13. Reggie Wayne
14. Miles Austin
15. Stevie Johson
16. Vincent Jackson
17. Kenny Britt
18. Mike Wallace
19. Denarius Moore
20. Torrey Smith
21. Mike Williams
22. Brandon Lloyd
23. Darius Heyward-Bey
24. Steve Smith (CAR)
25. James Jones

Mock-Tober

The NBA season is rapidly approaching, which means another one of our favorite past-times is as well. 


Laz's Latest Mock>>

Draft Street Road To 15 K

New DS Update: Will SGS continue to dominate Draft Street Road?   More>>

College Football Week 8 Picks

Alabama @ Tennessee: 65% of public are currently on Bama right now, yet the line has yet to move. That obviously raises a red flag, but as Oregon proved Thursday, sometimes red flags mean shit (ASU SUCKS). I have a hard time betting against Bama this season, because they are just too good. Instead, I will opt for the over. Tennessee has questionable the worst D in the SEC, and have given up 37,51,41 in their 3 games in the SEC so far. The good news is they have scored 31,44,20 in those respective games. Bama meanwhile has scored 42,33,52 in their 3 SEC games so far. Bama has only given up 24 points in the SEC….But that was against Arkansas without Tyler Wilson, an average Ole Miss team, and an offensively challenged Mizzu team. This time, they'll have to do it against Tennessee's star QB Tyler Bray. Tennessee has yet to have a game go under 50 so far this year, and I don’t think they will buck the trend this week. O 50.5 for 2 UNITS.

SC @ Florida: Sorry, but I am unable to find a great pick in this one. They both play very similar styles of football, and they both are very well coached. SC hasn’t lost 2 games in a row since 2009, but with Lattimore possibly missing, I think a small edge goes to Florida. SC’s line I also think will struggle against a tough Florida pass rush. Florida -3.5 for 1 UNIT.

Kansas St @ West Virginia: U is the play here. People forget that WV actually defends the run very well, in their last 3 games, WV has given up 49,45,and 63 points, yet they have yet to give up more than 175 rushing yards in those games. KSU is 119^th in the country in passing, and clearly will not be able to put up 500 yards passing, like the last 3 QB have been able to put up on WV. I am looking for a score similar to when KSU went to Oklahoma, and won 24-19. This should be an easy under 72, no way KSU runs for over 500 yards to put this game around 72.  U 72 for 3 UNITS,.

LSU @ Texas A&M: 62% of public is on LSU. LSU although can’t play on the road, as showed by their close 12-10 win @ Auburn, and their 6-14 loss @ Florida. A&M is battle tested, and has played 4 games on the road already. They also lost by 3 at home against Florida early this year, in a game they defiantly should have won. I think A&M is going very quietly under the radar right now, but they have possible the best offense in CFB. The public is too high on LSU to even consider taking them right now, wining at home against SC doesn’t make them the best team around. Texas A&M +3.5 for 2 UNITS.

Utah @ Oregon St: Oregon St. is currently undefeated, and as a result, the public will overrate them. 65% of bettors are currently on Oregon St. Utah, despite their 2-4 record, are actually a top 40 team in my opinion. They lost to USC at home by 10, almost won @ UCLA, beat a good BYU team at home, and lost @ Utah St in OT. They have covered the 10-point spread in every game this year, except at ASU. Oregon St also lives and dies by the pass, they are 8^th in the nation in passing, but a little known fact is that Sean Mannion, their starting QB for  4 games is injured. That means that Junior Cody Vaz is starting. I don’t know if he can be trusted only playing in one game this season. Utah plays great pass D, and I think that they will be able to stop the publicly overrated Beavers. Plus numbers fire says that Utah’s a 64% favorite to cover. Utah +10 for 2 Units.

Kansas @ Oklahoma: 67% of public is on Oklahoma -35, yet the line hasn’t moved. No other explanation is needed. Kansas +35 for 1 UNIT.

Rutgers @ Temple: 68% of public is on Rutgers, yet the line has moved 1.5 points in favor of Temple. Clearly the old case of a overrated undefeated team. Temple +4 for 2 UNITS,

Texas Tech @ TCU: Texas Tech upset a highly publicized WV team last week. Therefore the public overrates them this week. 63% of public is currently on TTU, but TCU is still a great team, and they have won 15 of their last 16 at home. TCU is also coming off pounding a very good Baylor team away from home. Another overrated public team to bet against this week. TCU +1.5 for 4 UNITS.

VT @ Clemson: Numbers fire says that VT is 69% favorite getting 7.5 points. Clemson’s best win this year is at home against a 4-3 Ball State team. Logan Thomas is still one of the elite QB’s in CFB, and should be motivated to try and start climbing up the draft boards, so I doubt VT will just lie down. VT has also played @NC and at home against undefeated Cincinnati. They also are coming off a pounding of a solid Duke team, in which they scored 41 straight points to come back and win. Prior to Duke’s loss to VT, had only lost @ Stanford. I think VT is extremely publicly underrated, and I think they will beat Clemson this week straight up. VT +7.5 FOR 4 UNITS.

FSU @ Miami (FL); Miami has been great at home, and is very underrated by the public. FSU can't play on the road, and especially in a rivalry game, I see no way that FSU will win by 25+. FSU has no D. MIAMI +22 5 UNITS

ALCS Cardinals vs. Giants Game 4 Preview

The reigning champion Cardinals will look to get back to the Fall Classic tonight.

The St. Louis Cardinals are looking to join the Detroit Tigers in the Fall Classic, and a win tonight against San Francisco would do it. Lance Lynn is set to take the bump for the Cardinals, and veteran Barry Zito will counter for the Giants, who's season is in jeopardy. The power pitcher Lynn, brings his 3.28 ERA at home, and microscopically low 2.96 ERA in the night-time this year, to tonight's game, and he should have the advantage over the aging Zito, whose 4.15 ERA during the regular season is nothing to boast about. Another reason for Giants fans to worry, is that the Cardinals have hit lefty's hard this season. They have a .276 batting average this year against southpaws, and the heart of the lineup, Matt Holiday, Allen Craig, Yadier Molina, and David Freese have fared even better, hitting .333. Meanwhile, Giants bats have been struggling this post-season, and have an abysmal .219 BA to show for it. The Cards are the pick here to win it, and set up a rematch of the 2006 world series with the San Francisco Giants.   The Pick: Cardinals -1.5 runs for 2 Units to get 3 Units

UFC in Brazil

While watching MMA Round table last night, I came across a interview with Stephan Bonnar. Stephan attributed his UFC 153 loss to "Someone put something in my water." Call me crazy, but I thought it seemed like something that could happen in a rowdy Brazilian environment, so I decided to look back at the last few Brazilian hosted UFC events. UFC 134 in Brazil, Brazilians went 7-1 against other countries, including early KO or TKO wins by Little Nog, Shogun Rua, and Anderson Silva. Then, in UFC 142 in Brazil, the Brazilians went 7-1 again against other countries, including 3 first round wins on the main card from, Aldo, Belfort, and Palhares. Then, in UFC 153, Brazilians went 6-3, with early wins from Silva and Big Nog. I understand that Brazilians are typically better fighters, but when Brazil is hosting an event, and their overall record against other countries is 20-4, something is fishy. I think this should be a gambling rule, never bet against a Brazilian fighting in Brazil.

Chronicles of a Degenerate Gambler 10/18/12

Well, Jim Harbough stunned the gambling world by not taking the safety. I have no idea what he was doing honestly, but I will certainly take it. To recap for those people who weren't watching, the line was 7.5 (on some sites it was 9) on some sites, and the Seahawks were down by 7 with the ball on their own 5 yard line. QB Russel Wilson tried to go for it 4th and 17 with a long pass play to Golden Tate, with 1:41 remaining in the game, and with no TOs remaining, it was the obvious choice. Golden Tate caught the ball right on the first down marker, but as the +7.5 betters were celebrating, the official threw a flag for a high-low block in the end-zone. As a result of a foul in the end zone, it was reported as a safety. Jim Harbough however, decided to decline the penalty if the play was short of the first down, because he appeared to just want to take a knee and go home, rather than dealing with a possible onside kick after the safety. The officials ruled the play short of the first down, which resulted in no safety, which resulted in rejoice before bed for all +7.5 pickers, including SGS. I am sorry if your head just exploded from all the twists and turns, but we aren't liable for your headaches, blame Jim Harbough.

10/16/12=terrible

Oregon @ ASU Pick/Preview

If you read my College Football Power Rankings, you would know I hate Oregon. I truly think they will lose tonight @ ASU. ASU has covered every game this year, compared to Oregon who are only 50%. A crazy amount, 62% of the public is on Oregon tonight, yet the line has actually gone down in ASU's favor, that shows the bookies are extremely confident ASU will cover. In fact, Numbers Fire says that ASU should be a 67% favorite to cover the spread. Remember, the spread is supposed to be around 50/50. ASU was 5-2 last year at home, playing a very difficult schedule, compared to Oregon who only went on the road 4 times last season. ASU is a top 25 team, who has blown every team (other than Mizzu) out this season. This is an easy pick, whenever the public is extremely on a team, yet the line moves the other way, it shows the bookies are extremely confident in the other team. ASU +9.5 for 3 units.

Seattle @ 49ers Pick/Preview

Seattle is the pick here; I think the 49ers are overrated. Seattle is undefeated this year as underdogs, and they have covered the 9.5 spread in every single game this year. Meanwhile, the 49ers have only played 1 game on Thursday night football in their past 2 seasons, in which they lost by 10. Seattle won on Monday night at home against GB. They also won on Thursday Night last year, blowing out the Eagles at home, as well as winning on Monday Night @ STL. I think the most telling stat in this one is the Seahawks are 31st in passing, and 49ers are 26th in passing. The Seahawks are #2 rush D, against the 49ers #1 rush O. This game will be won or lost with the run with both sides, and I think that favors the team getting 9.5 points all day. Their stats and records appear to be mere images of each other, and that is why I can't understand why home field is worth 9.5 points. Seattle is the play here, public is right at 55%. Seattle +9.5 for 3 Units. 

NLCS Giants @ Cardinals Game 4 Pick

Tim Lincecum is one of the most rapidly declining players in the MLB. Yet, the Cardinals have a .322 average against him, in their respective careers. Tim also has yet to make a start in around a month, and has a awful 6.43 ERA away from home.  Adam Wainwright is on the mound for the Cards, bringing in a 3.70 ERA at home, but a 3.28 overall ERA in the second half of the season, but in his last start he gave u 6 runs in 2.1 innings against WSH, and the Giant's are hitting over .300 career against him, but did only give up a .231 average against them this year. I have no idea which version of these pitchers will show up, they are both extremely inconsistent. One stat that is pretty telling about Wainwright however, is in his last start that he couldn't make it out of the third inning was @ Washington, in his next start against the Mets, he gave up 5 runs in 5 innings pitched. This could be a useless stat, but I feel SFG is the right play +1.5 tonight, because I love the 1.5 runs for away teams. SFG +1.5 FOR 2 UNITS TO WIN 1 UNIT. 

DS Update

I have no idea what they are going to do about the games being postponed in baseball. I am winning my current contest, but I don't know if they will continue it until tomorrow, or give me the W tonight. Either way I would say I am a heavy favorite to start out with a +8.50 profit. I will mark today's earnings as a 0, because IDK what they are going to do. I am now going to try and conquer some golf. My strategy for golf is simple, go on a betting website, and compare odds to prices. If someone is considered the 5th favorite to win the tournament on a sports betting site, and 13th rated on Draft Street, I will grab him as a good value.

Contest Joined: $5 HU Golf ( Scoring is based on final place in tournament.)

-Playing golf with a ton of people like in the $2 game with 220 people makes it all about luck. I think HU gives me a significant edge because I know I am the probable favorite going in, especially in a $5 game, rather than a $500 game.

RULES: Pick 6 Golfers under cap of, 100,00.

1. Ben Curtis-$18,421- 2 top 25s in a row, great player, and my sports book agrees that he is a good value.

2. Michael Thompson-$16,697- Great golfer, listed at 36/1, top 10 for 19th total price. Also extremely streaky, could win this, I like him to win this.

3. Harris English- $15,217- Same as above, good value per price.

4. DA Points-$13, 251- Coming off a great week, certainly a hit or miss guy, who is only 9/20 in making cuts, but I think reward out weighs the risk...see what I did there.

5. Ken Duke- $14,608- Offset DA here, has the 7th most cuts made, and cost has him as the 30th most expensive player. He probably won't win, but a cut would be nice.

6. Bud Cauley- $21,842- 5 Cuts in a row, for a price much less than elites.

Amount remaining- $4.85
Amount Pending- 10$
Amount won yesterday- 0$
Amount won this week-0$
Account value-$14.85

Fantasy QB Rankings-Week 7

RED= HOT
Green=Good match up
Blue=COLD
Pink=Bad Match up.

1. Tom Brady-Jets suck, and Brady loves playing against the Jets. 
2. Drew Brees- Hot....too hot....
3. Eli Manning- Washington D is funny.
4. Aaron Rodgers-Possible let down, solid D in STL. 
5. Ben Roethlisberger- Killer on road so far, CIN pass D is funny. 
6. RG3- Big last week. 
7. Cam Newton- bad as of late, not a bad match up keeps him in top 10. 
8. Tony Romo- See Newton, Cam. 
9. Jay Cutler- Playing well as of late.
10. Carson Palmer- Been okay, good matchup at home.
11. Matt Schaub- 100% match up based, Ravens are depleted. 
12. Matt Hasselbeck- Matchup is nice against Bills. Not to shabby himself.
13. Josh Freeman- HOT....just not overall talented. 
14. Matthew Stafford- Recommended sit against Bears, still is hot. 
15. Andy Dalton- Big last week, just not a good match up...or much talent

SGS Betting Review 10/16/12

                        Giants vs. Cardinals Game 3 Preview Below This

NCAAF: Past Week: -1 Units and 4-5 record  (44%)

NCAAF: Overall: +9 Units and 15-14 record  (51.7%)


NFL: Past Week: -3 Units and 3-3 record  (50%)

NFL: Overall: +13 Units and 18-9 record  (66.7%)


MLB: Past Week: +1 units and 6-7 record  (46.2%)   Cardinals vs. Giants Game 3 is on Wed; so not included

MLB: Overall: +11.5 units and 14-10 record  ( 58.3%)


Soccer: Past Week: No change and 0-0 record

Soccer Overall: +2.5 Units and 3-2 record  (60%)


Tennis: Past Week: -2.5 Units and 0-1 record  (0%)

Tennis: Overall: -2.5 Units and 0-1 record   (0%)


UFC: Past Week: -6.5 Units 0-0 record (UFC is not based on the spread; unlike our record, which is)

UFC Overall: -6.5 Units 0-0 record (UFC is not based on the spread; unlike our record, which is)


All Sports Past Week: -12 Units and 13-16 record  (44.8%)

All Sports Overall: +27 Units and 50-36 record     (58.1%)

*Most SGS picks/bets are based on the spread which are mathematically 50/50 games at picking; the games which are not 50/50 are not included in the overall record due to potential inflation or deflation of the true record

NLCS Giants @ Cardinals Game 3 Preview/Pick

Matt Cain has struggled of late, giving up 6 runs in his last 10 2/3 innings.

I could rehash everything I wrote in my DS (draft street) article, but to put it simpler terms, Cain is pitching very bad right now, and the Giants' hitters seem to have Lohse's number. It has gone O the spread every game this series, and with 2 struggling pitchers on the mound, this one will get ugly fast. The bullpens are also rather depleted since most starters have struggled to give their club quality innings this series. Cain also has a 3.56 ERA away, compare to a 2.03 at home. Cain also has a slightly higher ERA during the day. Lohse also has a ERA almost a full run higher during the day, as well as the fact that he is struggling lately. This should get ugly quick, but the clubs will try and milk the SP to give RP a break, leading to a high scoring game. O 7 might be my favorite pick since creating the site, all as some people say all roads lead to over, this is a reputation based line. O 7 for 4 units.

Draft Street Road to 15K

This is a new column I am writing to show you that gambling is not luck, and almost anyone can be successful with the right money management. I am putting $15 in Draft Street, and I am going to plan to turn it in to 15K. Draft Street is a daily fantasy sports site, in which fantasy games are decided within the course of a week or even a day, rather than an entire season. This obviously allows a crazy profit to be made. I will give detailed analysis of players I have chosen, as well as strategies used to obtain the largest profit possible. If Draft Street sounds like something interesting to you, check out the link at the bottom of the page (won't let me put it up here.) Draft Street is also Legal in the USA, as it is considered a game of skill not luck. (WHY NOT POKKKKKEEEEERRRRRR!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!)

Leagues joined: ($5 MLB Game, 3 person, Winner Gets $13.50)

-I like starting in small games like these. The most amount of skill is showed in the smallest groups. Rather than spending 33% of my bankroll on the same kind of game, only with 100 people, I am going to try and slowly build it up. These games are most important, because they set the basis for future. I will be forced to implement 2 extremely different strategies depending on the result of this game.

Budget 100K

P- Max Scherzer-Det-$18,010: This may sound extremely basic, but the Yankees have yet to score in the last 2 games (as of now) and Scherzer is coming off a great last start, in which he gave up 0 Runs 5.1 innings pitched, and 8 strike outs. However, in a scoring system that labels a K almost equal to a IP, I think that it is important to get a K based pitcher. Scherzer has a higher amount of K's than IP at home, and I think that makes him the play, compared to Kyle Lohse, who for a similar price, might go 2 more IP than Schezer, but I doubt unless Scherzer pitches less than 4 innings, Lohse will not be able to catch him because he typically pitches for contact. CC in comparison might put up numbers better than Max, but he will cost me 5% more of my budget, but for similar stats, I feel Schezer is the best available pick, mostly due to the large K/IP %.

RP- Jason Motte-STL-$3,906: I love Motte for this spot. Rather than taking another SP, I elected for a much cheaper elective in Motte. I like Motte mostly because he has yet to play in 3 days, meaning his arm should be ready to go, and should be pitching in any situation. If he can just even get a save, Motte will be getting about 4 points for 4% of my budget. That would nearly guarantee me a win if I can put up 100 points.  Although he doesn't have potential for a big game, he is the best value per percentage, as long as he doesn't put up a goose egg.

C-Gerald Laird-DET-5,671: You may ask yourself, who the hell is Gerald Laird, and why are you picking him while he against CC Sabathia. I'll tell you why, Gerald Laird has 24 AB against CC Sabathia, he has 10 hits, a double, as well as a HR. He also has earned 4 walks against CC, and CC only has a 4.02 ERA away from home. Laird is the clear play in a weak catcher category.

1B-Prince Fielder-DET-7,966: A great price for one of the elite hitters in the MLB. Fielder has a .337 average at home, as well as 18 HR, compared to 12 on the road. Fielder is also hitting .364 in his career against CC. Not to bad, especially for the great price, as well as the great splits.

2B-Ryan Theriot-SFG-7,557: Ryan is hitting 12-22 against Lohse in his career, with 2 doubles and 2 triples. He clearly has Lohse's number. He is also coming in after a solid 4 points on the 15th, and he hits better on the road. Good pick here, but kind of a high price to pay.

3B-Miguel Cabrera-DET-10,243: Miguel is the best hitter in the MLB, and hits 10 BA points better at home than away. Even though Miggy typically struggles against lefties, he is 10-26 against CC, and has 2 HR and 2 doubles. Miggy is the only viable option, and though the price is expensive, he should certainly put up some points no matter what.

SS-Brandon Crawford-SFG-6,012: He is the starter is SFG, Lohse is not a great pitcher, and all the other SS are struggling other than Kozma, but he costs a crazy 9,108. Crawford is the clear, easy play.

OF-Andy Dirks-DET-7,199: Hitting well of late, and he kills CC. Price is the main reason.

OF-Curtis Granderson-NYY-8,750: Might be strange to pick an opposing hitter, but Grandy is the only NYY that hits Max well, he is 4-12 with a HR. I feel that he is worth the cheep price to grab an elite hitter.

OF-Carlos Beltran-STL-12,871: Killing the ball of late, putting up 4.75,8.5 and 9.5 points in last 3 games, and has .389 average, and 4 extra base hits against Cain. He is pricey, but I have money to spend at this point, and he is that good.

U- Angel Pagan-SFG-10,573: At this point price doesn't matter. All I wanted was the hottest hitter right now. That is Angel Pagan. Bad price but I feel I have the best at every position, so I my as well pick someone who is maybe a little overpriced, but who has put up huge numbers as of late.

NLCS Cardinals vs. Giants Game 2 Pick/Preview

Chris Carpenter will look to put the Giants in a big hole tonight, for the reigning champion Cardinals, while Ryan Vogelsong will look to keep his Giants away from their grave. The Cardinals are red-hot and won Game 1 6-4. Right now, the Giants are getting 2/1 on covering the -1.5 spread. On paper it looks like the Cardinals might have the edge, however Cardinals pitcher Chris Carpenter has only pitched in 3 games this regular season due to receiving surgery to repair a nerve problem in his shoulder. In addition, Carpenter has a much worse ERA of 3.78 in his last 3 seasons at home compared to his dominant 2.96 at home. Meanwhile Giants pitcher Ryan Vogelsong has pitched well recently, giving up only 2 runs in his last 4 outings. The Over/Under line of 6.5 is way to low for a playoff baseball game, so we'll take the Giants and Over.  The Pick: Giants -1.5 2 Units to get 4 Units; Over 6.5 for 3 Units.

MNF Charger vs. Broncos Preview/Pick

The San Diego Chargers (3-2) take on the Denver Broncos (2-3) tonight. The Chargers have been mediocre thus far this season, however finally having star running back, Ryan Mathews back and at full health, should benefit them greatly. The Chargers game-plan is likely going to be to pound it on the ground against an average rush defense, rather than take their chances downfield against the likes of Champ Bailey. However, this won't stop Phillip Rivers, the Chargers quarterback from throwing in an occasional deep bomb and testing Broncos CB Chris Harris, who's filling in for injured star cornerback Tracy Porter. Look for the Chargers to take advantage of this with their depth at the receiver position. Meanwhile, aside from probable struggling on the defensive side of the ball, it looks like Peyton Manning will have to win it by himself for the Broncos tonight, as not only are the Broncos averaging a pedestrian-like 101 rushing yards a game, but they also are going to face a stifling Charger's defense that allows only 74 rushing yards a game, which is good for 3rd in the league. Another major factor about this game, is that it will be in San Diego, where not only will the Chargers have the home crowd, but they will also enjoy the warm 77 degrees forecast for tonight's game, as they are used to playing in this climate. We see it being a close game, but San Diego -1 is the pick here.  The Pick: San Diego -1 for 3 Units

BCS BS

I have never understood the BCS standings. They always seem bias, and just generally bad.

Lets take a look at the recent standings, as I create the real CFB Power Rankings. 

1. Alabama: Actually according to the computers this is the 3rd best team in the country, but we at SGS know better. Alabama is without a doubt the best team in the country, so much so, that I don't even have to explain.

2. Florida: Yes, I agree that they should be number 2, but anyone with any football sense knows that they are not the second best football team in the country. They looked pretty weak against an offensive orientated A&M team, and I don't think they will score enough to stay with high-powered offenses. They have won too many close games for my liking. Close wins are more of a product of luck than skill. 

3. Kansas State (BCS 4): I love teams that go on the road, and win big games. It is a daunting task to head to Oklahoma and win against the Sooners, that I think it is the best win this season. All other upsets have been at home, but KSU was able to pull it off on the road. Very impressive, and worthy of the 3 spot for me.

4. Notre Dame (BCS 5): Despite playing some big games at home, they still have a huge road win against a very good MSU team. They also have played a very tough schedule so far, playing against 3 ranked opponents. If they can head to Oklahoma, and knock off the Sooners in 2 weeks, I think they will take over the #2 spot.

5. Oregon State (BCS 8): I think USA Today is way off on this team, ranking them #11. They beat 3 solid, top 40 teams on the road this year, BYU, Arizona, and UCLA. They also knocked off a top 25 Wisconsin team at home. Their wins are not extremely dominant score wise, but still a W is still a W nonetheless. 

6. LSU (BCS 6): The computers are not impressed with LSU, but I am. They will be overlooked, but they did play Florida very close...On the road, and I believe those two teams are equal in talent, meaning home field could have decided the game. They also have a very good win at home against a top 10 team in SC. They have looked bad as far as their expectations, but they still are a very nice looking team.

7. Oregon (BCS 3): As stated earlier, I respect teams that play good teams on the road. Oregon hasn't even played good teams at home. Their best win is against top 40 Washington at home. Granted, they have blown out everyone in their path, but they still haven't had anyone in their path. They have played a Boise St schedule so far, and I feel they should be treating them like we treated BSU. A win @ USC would definitely change my mind.

8. South Carolina (BCS 7): They have a marquee win against top 10 Georgia, granted at home, I think they should hardly be penalized for losing by 2 @ LSU, one of the hardest places to play in the country. If they can win at Florida, I think they should jump over LSU. Their wins are decreasing in value however; Vandy and Mizzu have not lived up to expectations.

9. USC (BCS 10): I respect that they lost @ Stanford, and have played a solid amount of road games so far. They have not looked great as far as their wins however, and I doubt they will finish the season in the top 10. Big games against Oregon and ND later in the year give them title hopes.  

10. FSU (BCS 14): If they get 2 more points against NC State, a team that was 3/4 on 4th down conversions, they are a top 5 team. They have only lost one game, and that game was on the road against a top 40 team. They should not go from top 5 to 14 just because of a one-point loss on the road. They have killed everyone else they have played, and I think that should carry some weight.

11. West Virgina (BCS 13): They have a tough win against a top 40 team at home against Baylor, and won on the road against a top 25 team in Texas. They lost a tough game, after playing 2 solid teams. Granted they got blown out, but Texas Tech is a top 25 team, and very hard to play against on the road. I boost them for a tough schedule played so far.

12. Oklahoma (BCS 9): Came back strong after losing at home against a top 5 KSU team. They have come back to beat Texas Tech away by 21. They also pounded a solid Texas team by 40 at home. Forgive and forget for the KSU home loss? No, but I think they look like a top 5 team in their past 2 games, but you just can't lose at home as a top 10 team. 

  

13. Texas A&M (BCS 18): Lost at home against Florida by 3. They also have played a good amount of road games, including edging LT by 2 on the road. They still have not played very many quality teams this year, but I think they are BCS underrated. Road wins, and almost knocking off #2 is a recipe for success.

14. Georgia (BCS 11): It would be one thing if they lost a close game, but they got blown out 48-3 @ SC. South Carolina is very good, especially at home, but you can't lose by 45 against anyone as a elite team.

15. Ohio State (NR because of Sanctions)  Undefeated, and have won @ MSU, and vs. Nebraska. They have yet to lose, and are certainly a second tier team.

16. Louisville (BCS 16): They have looked weak of late, but they are still undefeated. They have also played 3 straight games on the road, which gives them the edge over other weak schedule, undefeated teams.

17. Clemson (BCS 19): Very underrated, their only loss this year is on the road @ FSU, other than that game, they have looked extremely dominate. Their only problem is they are going to lack high quality wins this year, even if they go undefeated the rest of the way.

18. Mississippi State (BCS 12): Weak schedule so far, and they have only played 2 road games, @ 1 win Kentucky, and @ Troy, where they only won by 6. If they win at Bama, they could move straight into the top 3. Undefeated is still nice enough for top 20.... for now. 

19. Rutgers (BCS 15): See Mississippi St, but in a weaker conference. 

20. Stanford (BCS 20): Tough loss in OT @ Notre Dame, big win is obviously @ home against USC. I think the loss @ Washington is understandable as a let off game. Their really only true loss was against ND. I feel they are very underrated even at 18, but they still are the highest ranked 2-loss team.

21. Cincinnati (BCS 21): Bad schedule, all games at home, but atleast they have been blowing out their opponents.

22. Texas Tech (BCS 17): Good win @ Iowa State, and winning at home against WV, but losing against a demoralized Oklahoma team at home brings them significantly down. They also have yet to play enough road games for me to warrant a higher ranking from me.

23. Ohio (NR): Undefeated is undefeated. Solid win @ PSU gives them enough of a quality win to be in the top 25.

24. Michigan (NR): 2 losses on the hardest schedule around. Not too bad, but they have lacked quality wins. It’s so hard to play Bama, and @ ND, that I think they deserve a top 25 rating. Good wins @ Purdue, and blowing out rivals Illinois.

25. Wisconsin (NR): 2 losses @ Oregon ST. and @ Nebraska. Won @ Purdue and vs. Utah ST. Certainly get some respect for playing a hard schedule, and losing some close games on the road makes me think they are worthy of a top 25 rating. 2-field goals away from the top  

Packers @ Texans Pick/Preview

I love the Pack in this. The Texans have played no one this season. No team they have played has a record over .500 at this moment. The Packers meanwhile, have covered the spread 3.5 in every single one of their games this season. The Pack got caught looking ahead last week, although it was poor discipline, it should be ignored. The Pack clearly played as the superior team, and that is all a sports better should look at. This a flat out trap, the Packers didn't lose their talent over night, and the Texans are being over documented. They are in fact worse than last year, and just a beneficiary of an easy schedule. The Pick: Packers +3.5 for 3 Units

NLCS Cardinals @ Giants Game 1

I am going to recommend you to pound the over. Lance Lynn has been awful in the second half of the season. He has been pitching in relief as of late, so its an interesting decision to start him tonight. He has a 8.37 ERA in playoffs, and has given up 6.00 ERA against the Giants.  Bumgarner has gone 4.1 innings and has given up 4 runs, in his only post-season start this year. He has yet to go 7 innings in his past 8 starts, despite playing SD 2X, Rockies 2X, ARI, and CHC. He clearly isn't the same SP he was earlier in the season, which will result in people overrating him. This, I think, will be a 12-15 run game, both SP just have not been good. O 7 for 2 Units.

Fantasy Basketball: First Impressions

This is my first mock of the year for NBA. This is a 10-man mock on ESPN.com. It is a snake draft.

1. Start up Music starts and it is extremely annoying as it plays EVERY TIME someone joins.

2.  LBJ goes first, Durant 2nd, Paul 3rd. Seems about right.

3. I take Love fourth, love the easy rebounds FT and PTS.

4. AL Jefferson goes 8th, first bad pick I think. Too crowded in Utah, I would take him 20.

5. Howard somehow falls to 11, don't get that.

6. Anthony goes 15, SMH when will people learn, he hurts more than he helps.

7. I take Harden 17, kind of a reach. I wanted to lock down 3's, but I'm not in love with choices.

8. Aldrich good pick at 18.

9. Love Rondo at 21.

10. Grab Iggy #24, love the value for the best D guard.

11. KG at 25 is a god awful pick.

12. Like Paul Milsap at 37, I think he will become a star this year, Reminds me of a young KG.

13. Gordon at 39 is scary. HOW DOES HE FALL THAT FAR.

14. Favorite pick of draft for me was Roy Hibbert at 44. Didn't pay him max to sit on the bench.

15. Good pick to grab Zach Randolph at 51, always have loved him.

16. Ersan Illysova at 53 is a HUGE sleeper, love him.

17. Tyreke goes right before, pretty upset. Would have been the perfect PG for me.

18. Settle for Deng at 57, with Rose out for the year, he will post some huge ppg #.

19. Wall at 59, seems like a huge reach. I feel he is very overrated.

20. Lowery at 64 for me, as I grab my first PG. I feel he fits my team ID of great D.

21. Lin at 65....A rule should be that all Asians should get dibs on Lin. He does suck though, REEEAAACCCCHHHHH.

22. Rubio is such a steal at 71, thought he would fall farther.

23. Kemba 72....IS THAT U MJ.

24. I take Damian Lilard at 78, I think he has star power potential. Something my team is lacking.

25. Boozer goes 81, he is sooo bad. Terrible pick.

26. 84 I take Fat Albert (aka Raymand Felton) he was top 50 in NY before trade.

27. Marion at 87 is kinda funny.

28. But not as funny as D-rose @ 90.

29. I like MKG at 94, he seems like a Lou Deng type player.

30. DONT LAUGH. I took Bismack Biyomba at 97. Ibaka became big in his second season. I feel he is worth the risk.

31. Don't like Barens at 98. Never thought he was NBA type player.

32. I LOVE DeAndre Jordan at 104. Such a steal.

33. Samuel Dalembert at 106...I didn't know he was still playing.

34. Roy's knees just LOL'd. 109. SMH.

35. Asik at 112 is solid.

36. Pissed George Hill went 116, right before me. Great pick.

37. Settled for Gerald Henderson at 117. I still like the value.

38. Final pick I made was Marshon Brooks. Great pick, should start on a great offensive team.

**=My picks.

Round: 1
(1) Team romo - LeBron James SF
(2) Team Maldonado - Kevin Durant SF
(3) Bad Bittttcccheees - Chris Paul PG
** (4) Team Panos - Kevin Love PF
(5) Team Samuels - Russell Westbrook PG
(6) Dream Team - Deron Williams PG
(7) Team Crumpton - Dwyane Wade SG
(8) Team Sherifali - Al Jefferson C
(9) Team SJH - Kyrie Irving PG
(10) Team Pincay - Andrew Bynum C

Round: 2
(11) Team Pincay - Dwight Howard C
(12) Team SJH - Kobe Bryant SG
(13) Team Sherifali - Dirk Nowitzki PF
(14) Team Crumpton - DeMarcus Cousins PF
(15) Dream Team - Carmelo Anthony SF
(16) Team Samuels - Blake Griffin PF
** (17) Team Panos - James Harden SG
(18) Bad Bittttcccheees - LaMarcus Aldridge PF
(19) Team Maldonado - Josh Smith PF
(20) Team romo - Ty Lawson PG

Round: 3
(21) Team romo - Rajon Rondo PG
(22) Team Maldonado - Monta Ellis PG
(23) Bad Bittttcccheees - Goran Dragic PG
** (24) Team Panos - Andre Iguodala SF
(25) Team Samuels - Marc Gasol C
(26) Dream Team - Kevin Garnett PF
(27) Team Crumpton - Pau Gasol PF
(28) Team Sherifali - Greg Monroe C
(29) Team SJH - Serge Ibaka C
(30) Team Pincay - Tony Parker PG

Round: 4
(31) Team Pincay - Tyson Chandler C
(32) Team SJH - Al Horford C
(33) Team Sherifali - Rudy Gay SF
(34) Team Crumpton - Paul Pierce SF
(35) Dream Team - David Lee PF
(36) Team Samuels - Stephen Curry PG
** (37) Team Panos - Paul Millsap PF
(38) Bad Bittttcccheees - Marcin Gortat C
(39) Team Maldonado - Eric Gordon SG
(40) Team romo - Brandon Jennings PG

Round: 5
(41) Team romo - Steve Nash PG
(42) Team Maldonado - Amare Stoudemire PF
(43) Bad Bittttcccheees - Paul George SG
** (44) Team Panos - Roy Hibbert C
(45) Team Samuels - Anthony Davis PF
(46) Dream Team - Joakim Noah C
(47) Team Crumpton - Mike Conley PG
(48) Team Sherifali - Joe Johnson SG
(49) Team SJH - Jrue Holiday PG
(50) Team Pincay - Gerald Wallace SF

Round: 6
(51) Team Pincay - Zach Randolph PF
(52) Team SJH - Chris Bosh PF
(53) Team Sherifali - Ersan Ilyasova SF
(54) Team Crumpton - Danny Granger SF
(55) Dream Team - Klay Thompson SG
(56) Team Samuels - Tyreke Evans PG
** (57) Team Panos - Luol Deng SF
(58) Bad Bittttcccheees - Nicolas Batum SF
(59) Team Maldonado - John Wall PG
(60) Team romo - Brook Lopez C

Round: 7
(61) Team romo - Lou Williams PG
(62) Team Maldonado - Andrea Bargnani PF
(63) Bad Bittttcccheees - JaVale McGee C
** (64) Team Panos - Kyle Lowry PG
(65) Team Samuels - Jeremy Lin PG
(66) Dream Team - Kenneth Faried PF
(67) Team Crumpton - Ryan Anderson PF
(68) Team Sherifali - Mo Williams PG
(69) Team SJH - Danilo Gallinari SF
(70) Team Pincay - Ricky Rubio PG

Round: 8
(71) Team Pincay - Tristan Thompson PF
(72) Team SJH - Kemba Walker PG
(73) Team Sherifali - Nikola Pekovic C
(74) Team Crumpton - Marcus Thornton SG
(75) Dream Team - Evan Turner SG
(76) Team Samuels - Andrew Bogut C
** (77) Team Panos - Damian Lillard PG
(78) Bad Bittttcccheees - Kris Humphries PF
(79) Team Maldonado - Manu Ginobili SG
(80) Team romo - Tim Duncan PF

Round: 9
(81) Team romo - Carlos Boozer PF
(82) Team Maldonado - Michael Beasley SF
(83) Bad Bittttcccheees - Gordon Hayward SG
** (84) Team Panos - Raymond Felton PG
(85) Team Samuels - Arron Afflalo SG
(86) Dream Team - Shawn Marion SF
(87) Team Crumpton - Wesley Matthews SG
(88) Team Sherifali - Isaiah Thomas PG
(89) Team SJH - O.J. Mayo SG
(90) Team Pincay - Derrick Rose PG

Round: 10
(91) Team Pincay - Dion Waiters SG
(92) Team SJH - Derrick Favors PF
(93) Team Sherifali - Brandon Knight PG
(94) Team Crumpton - Michael Kidd-Gilchrist SF
(95) Dream Team - Jeff Teague PG
(96) Team Samuels - Kevin Martin SG
** (97) Team Panos - Bismack Biyombo C
(98) Bad Bittttcccheees - Harrison Barnes SF
(99) Team Maldonado - Luis Scola PF
(100) Team romo - Darren Collison PG

Round: 11
(101) Team romo - Andrei Kirilenko SF
(102) Team Maldonado - Nene C
(103) Bad Bittttcccheees - David West PF
** (104) Team Panos - DeAndre Jordan C
(105) Team Samuels - Rodney Stuckey SG
(106) Dream Team - Samuel Dalembert C
(107) Team Crumpton - Glen Davis PF
(108) Team Sherifali - Anderson Varejao C
(109) Team SJH - Brandon Roy SG
(110) Team Pincay - Tony Allen SG

Round: 12
(111) Team Pincay - Jose Calderon PG
(112) Team SJH - Omer Asik C
(113) Team Sherifali - Elton Brand PF
(114) Team Crumpton - Jason Terry SG
(115) Dream Team - Brandon Rush SG
(116) Team Samuels - George Hill PG
** (117) Team Panos - Gerald Henderson SG
(118) Bad Bittttcccheees - Mario Chalmers PG
(119) Team Maldonado - Chauncey Billups PG
(120) Team romo - Chris Kaman C

Round: 13
(121) Team romo - Derrick Williams PF
(122) Team Maldonado - Ben Gordon SG
(123) Bad Bittttcccheees - DeMar DeRozan SG
** (124) Team Panos - MarShon Brooks SG
(125) Team Samuels - Jameer Nelson PG
(126) Dream Team - Kawhi Leonard SF
(127) Team Crumpton - Ray Allen SG

Tigers @ Yankees Game 2

I am sorry for lack of description for this one, but this one should be going to the Yankees. Sanchez has been solid this season, but certainly won't be able to shut them down. The last time he faced the Yankees he gave up 7 ER in 3 IP. Kuroda meanwhile has a 2.72 ERA at home, and has been pitching incredible as of late, going 7 or more IP and given up less than 2 runs in his last 3 starts. The Yankees are also an experianced organization, and they know they can't drop 2 games at home. I think they will use Jeter's injury for motivation, and they will get the W. YANKEES -134 1 UNIT.

NFL Week 6 Betting Preview

Patriots (-3.5) vs. Seahawks

This is a Patriots team that could perhaps be more dangerous than ever. They found their true running backs in Stevan Ridley and Brandon Bolden, and Tom Brady is the same MVP caliber quarterback that he was 7 months ago. Seattle's strength is running the ball with Marshawn Lynch, however the Patriots defense has surprised everyone with their ability to stop the run, as they currently rank 8th in rushing defense, against a schedule that included Ray Rice, CJ Spiller, and Chris Johnson. If the Seahawks can't run on the Pats, they will struggle even more through the air. They rank 31st in passing offense, and if they fall behind a score, it's likely that they won't be able to ever get back. The Pick: Patriots -3.5 for 3 Units

Cardinals -5 vs. Bills +5

5 points is an awful lot for a team that ranks a horrendous 25th in passing offense and 31st in rushing. Buffalo themselves are not a very good football team, but atleast they can run the ball, as they rank 5th in rushing. Meanwhile, the Cardinals "spectacular" defense is average according to the statistics, as they rank 18th in pass defense and 14th in rushing defense. The Cardinals should win this one at home, but 5 points is way too much.  Bills +5 for 1 Unit

Vikings -1.5 vs. Redskins

Vikings are the better team, but the Skins are at home. This one is truly a tossup, especially with RGIII performance being completely unpredictable a week after suffering a concussion. Stay Away

San Francisco (-7) vs. Giants (+7)

No, this line isn't as off as you may think. I would say something closer to -5 for the Niners, but in reality, this game is not far from a pick'em. This a big stage for the Giants, and Eli loves the big stages. San Francisco's defense is an elite one, but shutting down an offense that will finally have its  players healthy, with Nicks, Barden, and Bradshaw slated to play, is asking too much of this defense. The Giants rank 3rd in their aerial attack that didn't include Hakeem Nicks for a large part of the season, so look for them to test the Niners secondary. If Eli can keep the turnovers down, the Giants should cover.  The Pick: Giants +7 for 3 Units

UFC 153 Picks/Betting Preview

Anderson Silva (-1065) vs. Stephan Bonnar (+781)

Bonnar is getting great value, and for anyone that reads this, you must jump on this line while you can. Anderson Silva (32-4) comes in as the huge favorite vs. Stephan Bonnar (15-7), and no one is really giving Bonnar a chance. While Silva might be the best fighter in the world, there's something about this matchup that makes me uneasy about his chances to win. Bonnar is the bigger and stronger fighter and has a 2 inch height advantage to go along with a 2.5 reach advantage. Another thing that you should be cognizant of, is the fact that, in his 22 professional fights, Bonnar has never been knocked out or submitted by any of his opponents, which include aplethura of stars like Lyoto Machida, Forrest Griffin, Rashad Evans, and Jon Jones. Anderson's not a great wrestler, so Bonnar is going to try to use his power to get Silva to the ground, and avoid Silva's vicious standup. Anytime your getting huge odds, on what could likely be a decision, you have to take them. The Pick: Stephan Bonnar (+781) 2 Units to get 15.5 Units


Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (-302) vs. Dave Herman (+266)

This line is way too favorable for Nogueira. Dave Herman is a young rising star, and is looking to shake off a 2 match losing streak tonight against Nogueira. Both men's strength is wrestling, with Nogueira having the technical advantage in both grappling and stand-up, while Herman takes the advantage in the strength department. Nogueira is going to have a tough time taking the much stronger Herman down, and I think as a result, Nogueira will be on his back a lot in this fight.
The Pick: Dave Herman (+266) 4 Units to get 10.5 Units.


Glover Teixeira (-394)  vs. Fabio Maldonado (+341)

Maldonada is one of the greatest boxers in the MMA, and has lightning fast hands. However, he is very inexperienced at wrestling, which happens to be Glover's strong suit. While I think Glover will win, with Maldonado's hands, this one is too risky to take Glover. The Pick: Glover (no units)

Erik Silva (-140) vs. Jon Fitch (+127)

Silva is fast, and has deceiving power to go along with good submissions, however Fitch is too strong and will out-wrestle Silva in this one. Silva will have a tough time staying off his back, so we'll take Fitch in most likely a decision.  The Pick: Jon Fitch (+127) 4 units to get 5 Units. 

Phil Davis (-369) vs. Wagner Prado (+321)

Prado has yet to face an opponent on the same level as Davis, and while Prado has dangerous striking, he won't be able to defend against Davis's takedowns. Davis will dominate on the ground and pick up a victory.  The Pick: Phil Davis 5.5 Units to GET 1.5 Units

Demian Maia (-137) vs. Rick Story (+124)  

If Rick Story can keep this fight away from the ground for the most part, I think he'll take it. He's a grinder and I don't think we've seen enough from Maia to take him in this fight. Maia is a supreme grappler, but I think Story will grind him out for the win.  The Pick: Rick Story 4 units to get 5 Units

Diego Brandao (-181) vs. Joey Gambino (+282)

Gambino is a finisher, and in 10 fights, he's only been in a decision once. Meanwhile Brandao brings his pedestrian 14-8 record to this fight. Gambino's got a height advantage and a 6 inch reach advantage over Branao as well. Gambino's a warrior, and he should be able to win this one.  
The Pick: Joey Gambino 3 Units to get 8.5 Units

ALCS Tigers @ Yankees Game 1 Pick/Preview

Tigers @ Yankees: Pettitte has been pitching well. One huge problem, Tigers are hitting over .400 against him. Tigers hit lefties amazingly and I think they will be able to go yard quite a few times, Pettitte has given up 8 HR in 12 games, but that number is even higher at home. Fister has only given up .283 average to Yankees hitters, but the majority of those come from Ian Stewart, who is not in the lineup tonight. In this type of game, I like the U, both pitchers have pretty high ERA's and they are pitching in a hitters park, but they have been pitching very well of late. Fister has a 2 ERA against Yankees and a 2.74 since all-star break. U 7.5 1 UNIT.

Tennis Shanghai Masters Semifinal; Federer vs. Murray

This is an interesting matchup, and in the previous two encounters between Federer and Murray, (Wimbledon and Olympics) I picked Murray to win both times. However, this time, I'm not going to bet against the greatest player of all time. Typically after grandslams, Murray tends to drop off for a little until the next Masters tournament. Recently retired Andy Roddick, who had the pleasure of playing against Federer in 4 of his 5 Grand Slam appearances said that Federer doesn't get enough credit for grinding out wins; which Federer had ironically done in his epic 2009 final against Roddick, where Federer won 16-14 in the fifth. Both Federer and Murray have not looked great so far this tournament, which means that this match just might go to the person who can grind and dig deeper, which could give Federer the significant edge. In addition, Murray has already won the Olympics and  the US Open this season, and is seemingly content with this, while the veteran Federer is still looking to maintain his #1 ranking. It would be unreasonable to think that Fed won't want revenge after losing to Murray in the Olympics.  FED -121 FOR 2.5 UNITS TO WIN 2.

NCAA Week 7 PICKS

NCAA Week 7 PICKS

Texas @ Oklahoma -3.5    Texas is coming off a heartbreaking loss to Geno Smith and the Mountaineers, and since this squad isn't exactly spoiled to winning, you can expect them to still have the same hunger to win as they did before. Landry Jones has not turned out the way Sooners' fans have wanted him to be, as in 4 games he only has had 7 touchdowns. Meanwhile, the Longhorns offense has been putting up lots of points, and despite being without RB Malcolm Brown, they still have one of the best running games in the nation led by Jonathan Gray and Joe Bergeron. Look for the Longhorns to pound the ball down the Sooners' throats, and definitely cover this spread.   
The Pick: Texas +3.5 for 3 Units 
 
South Carolina @ LSU -3: SC heads to Louisiana to take on LSU Tigers. LSU is coming off a rough loss against a solid Florida team. The Tigers however look awful. They only could put up 6 points, which magnified their lack of a passing attack. It will only get worse against a D that just gave up 7 points to a top 5 offense. SC was riding high before their QB was kicked out, and their work horse RB Marcus Lattimore  suffered a season-ending injury last year. I think LSU will be overrated, despite their recent loss. People will think this will be a rebound game for the Tigers. What rebound? They have played horrible in their last 3 games, and could only beat Towson by 16 at home.  LSU is flatout overrated, but I think this could be a possible trap, because LSU has won their last 24 at home. Oh and the O/U is a no play, U is just to obvious. SC is 5-1 vs. spread, they are the play. SC +3 for 2 UNITS.

Illinois vs. Michigan -25: Michigan will win this game, but it'll be tough for them to cover an enormous 25 point spread. If the Illini can put up 10-17 points, they should cover.   The Pick: Illinois +25 for 2 Units

Louisiana Tech VS.. Texas AM: Calling it, this will be the best game of the week. LA Tech is currently 3rd in the NCAA in total points with 53 a game. They are also 109th in total D. Texas AM is 8th in points, and #14th in D. La Tech has yet to score less than 56 at home, compared to Texas AM who killed SMU 48-3 on the road. Both these teams are not typically known has dominate offensive teams, and that's why I don't think over is a trap. Too many people just read the names, and think they know best. This could replicate Baylor WV, their offenses are that good. You always have to go over the largest over of the week. O 79 for 2 Units.
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WV @ Texas Tech +3.5: The pick is Tech. 72% of public is on WV, yet the line has hardly moved .5 points. BOOKIES AREN'T STUPID. WV has had 2 extremely profiled CLOSE wins. If they blew out Texas, they would be getting less coverage. Tech is coming off a bad loss against Oklahoma, but a little known fact is Tech is 7-1 in games after losses in the past few seasons. WV has just won 2 huge games, and Tech will be overlooked by an inexperienced WV group. 72% is insane, plus I think the stats point to Tech too. TECH + 3.5 FOR  4UNITS

KSU @ ISU: LOOK AT THE WEATHER REPORT. 80% chance of precipitation right now. That certainly won't hurt scrambling QB Colin Klein of KSU. Rain helps the O, because it is harder to react on a slippery surface. If a CB trips, it's 6, while if a WR trips its just 2nd down. KSU is #9 on the ground, they should have a field day on a wet field; ISU D is good, and would not be overlooked on a clean surface. ISU just doesn't have burners, and that will hurt them. KSU -6 FOR 1 UNIT.

Florida @ Vandy: I love me some under.Vandy has played some tough road games this year: Georgia, Mizzu, and Northwestern. At home, they managed to hold South Carolina to 17 points.They are 102 in offense, and a solid 32 in D (automatically in top 50 if you play in SEC). Florida is 6th in D, and 69th in O. They have only gone over 41 one time this year, and Vandy has only gone over 2 times (once was when they beat Presbyterian 58-0). I don't understand the line, it just doesn't add up, the public isn't even on it too much. U 41.5 FOR 3 UNITS.

Stanford @ ND: No rhyme or reason here. I think the public always overrates ND, but Stanford will probably be overrated too. I like Stanford just cause public is leaning toward ND. But hardly. Stanford +7 FOR .5 UNIT.

Tennessee @ Miss St: Tennessee has the hardest schedule this year, and I think a tough close loss to Georgia will drain them. They got #3 and #1 next up, so Miss St will look like a cupcake. Unfortunately, Miss St. is also a scrappy team that is quietly public 5-0. Miss ST -3 FOR 1 UNIT.

Iowa @ MSU: MSU has lost 2 very close and hard fought games against top 25 opponents. Iowa is on the road for the first time this year, they went 1-4 last year.They are 3-2 with one of the easiest schedules around, all at home. MSU has (IMO) a top 5 D, and should hold a horrible Iowa attack to less than 10. MSU should win this one easy. They are the best 4-2 team around. They both love to run the rock, which should also lead to a EASY under play. U39 3 UNITS AND MSU -7.5 FOR 1 UNIT

Update

Stay tuned for our weekly NFL and NCAAF Picks, along with our weekly fantasy rankings.

NFL QB Value

I am going to try and tackle the hardest question in human history. No, not the afterlife, not 7 Wonders of the World, not even the universe. I am going to try and decide how good a player or team really is. Madden tries, but in my opinion they do a terrible job. For example, they say Wes Welker is quicker than Calvin Johnson, and better than Roddy White. Tim Tebow also has 87 throw power and 80 deep throw accuracy. Which clearly explains why the ball bounces so high off the turf after a pass.....I mean a incompletion (same difference) I feel that this is a microcosm of some of Madden's ratings. So the question is, how can we determine how good a player is? Do we use most recent stats? If so, we would have Brian Hartline being the best WR in the league. If we go by career stats, then we would have Randy Moss as the best signing of the off-season. Should we go by past 5 year total yards? Then the best WR would be Roddy White, who according to Matt Ryan, is only the second best WR on his own team right now. We could use ESPN's "genius" Scouts inc. that has Peyton Manning as the 16th best player in the NFL, compared to best tackle, Jake Long at #20. I am going to go position by position, and give my formula to trying to solve the impossible value conundrum.

QB VALUE= Wins in past 2 seasons multiplied by 2 + total pass attempts divided by games played + Total yards divided by games played - INT multiplied by 10 + TD multiplied by 5 + QBR (Quarterback Rating) combined from past 2 years.

Formula = W X 10 +Attempts  / #Games Played + Yards / #Games Played X 2 - INT X 10 + TD X 5 + QBR= Value

Example: Aaron Rodgers= 24 X 10 +  977/30 + 9,178/60 - 170+ 400 + 224= 879.533333

The List of top 10: 

1.Tom Brady- 898.803125

2.Aaron Rodgers- 879.5333

3.Drew Brees- 685.34375

4.Tony Romo (used 2011 and 2009, due to injuries in 2010)- 654.021875

5.Matt Ryan- 646.8875

6.Ben Roethlisberger- 630.766667

7.Peyton Manning- 614.6125 (2010 and 2009)

8.Philip Rivers- 496.4375

9.Tim Tebow- 484.192 (Used 11 Game slate X 2)

10.Cam Newton (Last year's numbers multiplied by 2 to account for lack of seasons.) 439.96

11.Eli Manning- 433.059375

This formula reflects my opinion of the top 10 NFL QB's. Obviously Eli being #10 after winning two Superbowls may be strange, but I don't like the number of interceptions he throws, which I feel is the most overlooked stat among NFL QB's. The Giants have also put up average win totals in the regular season. Matt Ryan will keep creeping up the list, he was #5 BEFORE the year was.....oh and to save you some time, the numbers don't lie, Tebow is soooo underrated. 

Thursday Night Football Pick: Steelers vs. Titans

Above: Titans RB Chris Johnson has yet to find the End Zone this season.

Tennessee is +6 in this matchup, and being cognizant that this is an NFL game, I still think this line is overrating the Titans ability to move the ball and play defense. The Titans have only scored more than 14 points once so far this season, and the future doesn't look any brighter against a dominant Steelers' defense that has been a model for NFL defense's for the past decade. The Titans only "strength" is running the ball, as they have  star Chris Johnson, but unless you've been on vacation for the past 6 weeks, you would know that this is not the case, as the Titans currently rank 30th in rushing. On top of their atrocious offense, the Titans are also one of the league's worst defenses, giving up more than 30 points every game this season, and ranking in the bottom 10 in every major defensive category. The chances that they keep this game close are slim.   The Pick: Steelers -6 for 4 Units

10/11 MLB Pick; A's vs. Tigers Game 4; Yanks vs. O's Game 4

Justin Verlander is taking the mound for the Tigers, who are the slight favorite to cover 1.5 runs in this game. Verlander has been dominant in his last four starts, so we'll keep riding his streak until it costs us, because that's the only mind set we can have with a pitcher as good as him. Jarrod Parker will make his post-season debut for the A's, who has a team are inexperienced at best. Look for the Tigers to jump out early, and for Verlander to go 7, maybe even 8 strong.  The Pick: Tigers -1.5 runs for 2 Units.

Meanwhile, the Yankees are also looking to secure a spot in the ALCS tonight, and a third win over Baltimore tonight, would do just that. Joe Saunders is taking the mound for the Orioles tonight, and he has avoided a bad start in his last 6 outings, which is good news for Orioles fans, as they'll need him to make it 7 if they want to last any longer. Despite this, one has to be cognizant of the fact that Saunders isn't exactly a strikeout pitcher, and that he also gives up lots of hits, which is evident by the fact that his career batting average against is .276. Against a powerful Bronx Bomber's lineup, this likely will not get the job done.  The Pick: Yankees -1.5 runs 3 units to get 2 Units

Week 6 Fantasy Football Buy Low Sell High

 Buy Low 

  

Maurice Jones-Drew

MJD has struggled for the most part to start this season aside from his week 3 performance against Indianapolis. However, he has already had to face top defenses in Minnesota, Houston, and Chicago. His schedule gets much easier as the year goes on. Coming off a bad week and headed for a bye this week, you can get him really cheap.

Roddy White

After a phenomenal performance against Carolina, Roddy White struggled against Washington.  It wasn't White that struggled however, it was the success of Tony Gonzalez and Julio Jones who combined for 23 receptions over 200 yards and 2 scores. As much as I hope those numbers come again this year, ( I own both Julio and Gonzalez on my team) it probably won't happen again. White is one of the most consistent receivers in the league and should perform on a week to week basis. Get him now while you can.

James Starks

With Cedric Benson out most people are going to go after Alex Green which is the right choice for this week. However, Starks is going to be active this week for the first time this year and he will steal many touches and eventually win the starting job by week 7.  You should be able to pick him up off the waiver wire or if he's owned get him really cheap.

Hakeem Nicks and Greg Jennings

Both these guys have been injured all years for the most part. Don't forget when healthy they are easily top 7 receivers and there are most likely some very annoyed fantasy owners out there right now. These two studs are as low as they will be all year.

Andre Johnson

Andre Johnson has struggled all season aside from week 1, but he's one of the best deep threats in the game to go along with his incredible strength and toughness.  Coming off 2 really bad weeks in a row you can get him cheap right now.  He's a WR1 once he gets it going, get him while you can.

 

Sell High

 

Victor Cruz

You can enjoy salsa time while you can but when Nicks comes back into the lineup Cruz is going to fall out of the top 10.  After two fantastic weeks back to back, you can probably get Roddy White for Cruz. Any top flight wide receiver is available if you're willing to trade Cruz.

Marques Colston

An inactive Lance Moore and Jimmy Graham getting injured in the first quarter contributed to Colston's huge game.  Moore and Graham are the goal line targets and will take those touchdowns away from Colston.  On top of that Drew Brees won't be throwing for four touchdowns every week.  You can probably get Andre Johnson for Colston straight up right now or other mid to low level WR1s.

Reggie Wayne

Coming off a career game, Reggie Wayne's stock is as high as it will ever be. 200 yards on 13 receptions will not happen again. Sell him high now, you won't be able to get WR1 with Wayne any time of the year but now.

Ahmad Bradshaw

Let's face it, it was the Browns.  Bradshaw probably won't more 20 carries again this season better yet the 30 he had last Sunday. The Giants are a passing team, and always will be. Trade Bradshaw after this career performance.

Jamaal Charles

Jamaal Charles has been on a tear lately, but the New Orleans defense, 2 very fortunate touchdowns against San Diego, and 30 carries against Baltimore have all contributed to this.  He's currently playing like a top 3 running back, which is a little too high for him. You can probably get Matt Forte or even Ray Rice with the way Charles has been playing. Sell him before it's too late.