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Friday, October 5, 2012
MLB WILDCARD PICKS FRIDAY
Cardinals @ Braves -172: In this one game format, anyone can win. Both teams will throw the kitchen sink, the question is who's sink is better. The line clearly shows that the public think the Braves have a MUCH better sink. Kris Medlen, in case you haven't followed baseball too closely this year, has a 1.57 ERA and 0.91 WHIP. He would have been the easy CY Young winner if he would have started in the first half of the season. I think that # is to generous. In his starts this year he has faced, MIA, HOU, NYM, SD, WSH, SD, COL, NYM, WSH, MIA, MIA, NYM. Red means bottom 1/4 in runs this year. You should obviously see that there is an insane amount of red. The greens are offences in the top 1/3 in runs. Plus this is Medlen's first clutch game, because by the time the Braves were at the all-star break, it was pretty clear they would be in the playoffs. The Cardinals are also the 4th best offensive team in the MLB over the year. Kyle Lohse also is on the mound for the Cardinals, and although his 2.81 ERA may not be accurate of how good he has been recently, I also think he will struggle, in his only start against Atlanta this year, he has given up .401 BA and 5 runs in 5 innings. The Braves are also hitting a combined .319 against Lohse in their respective careers. I think the stats illistrate that O 6.5 is clearly the right play, despite the SP's ERA, they are not as good as the ERA's indicate. I also think that the Cardinals are worth a small play @ +163, mostly because 2 playoff teams shouldn't be that highly favored over another. CARDS +163 FOR 1 UNIT TO WIN 1.5 AND 0VER 6.5 FOR 3 UNITS. CHECK BACK FOR UPCOMING CFB PICKS, AND LATE MLB PICK.
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