Texas (-7) vs. West Virginia (+ 7)
Time for a dose of reality for Geno Smith and the West Virginia Mountaineers. Even though both teams are in the Big 12, Baylor is light years away from this 2012 Texas Longhorn team, and we think that it will reflect in West Virginia's performance Saturday. Yes, West Virginia's offense did have perhaps one of the greatest performances last Saturday, lead by Geno Smith's 8 Td's. However, what largely goes unnoticed, is that they also gave up 63 points to a unranked team in Baylor. In addition, the Longhorns give up only 21 yards a game, compared to West Virginia's previous opponent, Baylor, who gives up 40! It should be a rude awakening for the Mountaineers, as the Longhorns balanced attack, and experienced defense should give them the significant edge in this one. You might look at this line, and be scared that Texas's offense is not explosive enough to cover this -7 spread, but don't forget that these Longhorns are 9th in total offense, and have a 3 headed monster running attack that features former #1 highschool running back recruits, Jonathan Gray and Malcolm Brown, to go along with the explosive Joe Bergeron. The Pick: Texas (-7) for 2 units
Michigan (-3) vs. Purdue (+3)
Trap! While Michigan hasn't had the best showing so far this season, they're not this bad. Michigan lost to an undefeated Notre Dame game by only 7 points, with turning the ball over 5 times! Had a couple of those errant passes not been picked off, we would be looking at a 3-1 Michigan team that would still be in contention for a BCS bowl. Purdue has started the year off impressively, but with inexperienced starter Caleb Turbish, you can't trust their offense to put numbers up on the board. Meanwhile for Michigan, their quarterback Denard Robinson has had strong games against average defenses throughout his career, however has also had many horrendous performances when put in front of an elite defense. Fortunately for him, this Purdue defense is not elite, and is nothing compared to Alabama's or Notre Dame's, so he should be able to pick apart their secondary for big plays on more than one occasion. The Pick: Michigan -3 for 2 units.
South Carolina (-1.5) vs. Georgia (+1.5)
Aaron Murray and the Georgia Bulldogs will head down to South Carolina to take on the Gamecocks. The only clear advantage that South Carolina has in this game is their defense. One would think that Marcus Lattimore and the Gamecocks would have the advantage in running the football, however Lattimore has looked average this year, and their 172 rushing yards per game is far less than Georgia's 250 per game that has mainly come from freshman stud Todd Gurley who is averaging 8 yards a carry so far. Meanwhile, Georgia quarterback Aaron Murray is looking better than ever, and is generating some heisman talks, as he is currently boasting a career high 68.2 completion percentage and 183.5 QB rating. Georgia is the Gamecock's first real test, and look for the Bulldogs to put up bigger numbers than most expect, and come away with victory against a South Carolina team that hasn't looked so impressive at times this year. The Pick: Georgia +1.5 for 3 units.
Ohio St. (-3) vs. Nebraska (+3)
Nebraska will be on the road on this one, taking on the undefeated Ohio State Buckeyes. Nebraska themselves, are 4-1, with their only loss coming against UCLA, in a game where they didn't have their starting running back Rex Burkhead. Nebraska's defense is a tough one, especially against the run, and will force Braxton Miller out of his comfort zone and make him pass the ball. That's where things will get tough for the Buckeyes offense, as they rank outside of the top 100 in total pass offense. Meanwhile, on the offensive side of the ball, Nebraska has been crisp and efficient lead by a much improved Taylor Martinez, and a tough workhorse in Rex Burkhead. If they can take care of the ball, and limit Braxton Millers big plays, Nebraska has the chance to pull of the upset in Columbus. The Pick: Nebraska (+3) for 1 unit
LSU (-2.5) vs. Florida (+2.5)
This game will be held in Gainesville, and it would be blasphemous to bet against Gators in this one. The Tigers of LSU have looked pedestrian in their last two games, as they were tested by both Auburn and a sub-par Towson team. Florida's offense looked sharp in their win over Tennessee, and quarterback Jeff Driskel has had a nice 2012 campaign so far. At running back, they have speedster Mike Gillislee, who is averaging nearly 6 yards per carry this year. Meanwhile, LSU has an elite defense that is giving up a little over 12 points a game, however they also have an offense that ranks only 95th in passing, and that can also be atrocious at times. With this game almost certain to be low-scoring, each point is important, so take Florida and points in this one. The Pick: Florida +2.5 for 1 unit.
UTEP (-2.5) vs. SMU +2.5
These teams have both had a horrible start to this season, with SMU being 1-3, and UTEP 1-4. While UTEP has had some decent performances in these losses, it isn't convincing enough to have them as the 2.5 point favorites against a team that nearly knocked off TCU last week. Take the points and SMU. The Pick: SMU +2.5 for 1 unit
Oklahoma (-4) vs. Texas Tech (+4)
The Sooners are coming off a tough loss against an underrated Kansas St. team, while the Red Raiders proved that they are legit, after last week's victory over Iowa St. The Red Raiders offense led by senior quarterback Seth Doege, have been extremely efficient thus far, and are 7th in passing offense and 11th in total offense. Doege currently boasts a whopping 72 completeion percentage and has 15 TD's and only 3 interceptions to go along with it. Meanwhile, on defense, the Red Raiders are stifling opponents with their defense that ranks 5th overall. Oklahoma hasn't looked nearly as impressive, with QB Landry Jones off to a pedestrian start. We like Texas Tech and points in this one. The Pick: Texas Tech (+4) for 1 unit.
Missouri (-7) vs. Vanderbilt (+7)
Missouri will take on Vanderbilt on Saturday night at home. Missouri is nothing special, as they don't rank inside the top 50 in any major categories. Vanderbilt's defense meanwhile, ranks 46th and is giving up only 22 points a game despite having to play two tough SEC offenses in Georgia and South Carolina. Missouri's offense has not scored more than 24 points in their last 4 games, so -7 sounds like a little too much on the spread. The Pick: Vanderbilt +7 for 1 unit
Clemson (-10.5) vs. Georgia Tech (10.5)
Clemson's offense led by quarterback Tajh Boyd, is an explosive one, and has scored 40+ points in 4 of their 5 games this season. They should have no trouble covering the spread in this one against a struggling 2-3 Georgia Tech team, that is coming off a 21 point loss to Middle Tennessee. The Pick: Clemson -10.5 for 1 unit.
No comments:
Post a Comment