I am going to try and tackle the hardest question in human history. No, not the afterlife, not 7 Wonders of the World, not even the universe. I am going to try and decide how good a player or team really is. Madden tries, but in my opinion they do a terrible job. For example, they say Wes Welker is quicker than Calvin Johnson, and better than Roddy White. Tim Tebow also has 87 throw power and 80 deep throw accuracy. Which clearly explains why the ball bounces so high off the turf after a pass.....I mean a incompletion (same difference) I feel that this is a microcosm of some of Madden's ratings. So the question is, how can we determine how good a player is? Do we use most recent stats? If so, we would have Brian Hartline being the best WR in the league. If we go by career stats, then we would have Randy Moss as the best signing of the off-season. Should we go by past 5 year total yards? Then the best WR would be Roddy White, who according to Matt Ryan, is only the second best WR on his own team right now. We could use ESPN's "genius" Scouts inc. that has Peyton Manning as the 16th best player in the NFL, compared to best tackle, Jake Long at #20. I am going to go position by position, and give my formula to trying to solve the impossible value conundrum.
QB VALUE= Wins in past 2 seasons multiplied by 2 + total pass attempts divided by games played + Total yards divided by games played - INT multiplied by 10 + TD multiplied by 5 + QBR (Quarterback Rating) combined from past 2 years.
Formula = W X 10 +Attempts / #Games Played + Yards / #Games Played X 2 - INT X 10 + TD X 5 + QBR= Value
Example: Aaron Rodgers= 24 X 10 + 977/30 + 9,178/60 - 170+ 400 + 224= 879.533333
The List of top 10:
1.Tom Brady- 898.803125
2.Aaron Rodgers- 879.5333
3.Drew Brees- 685.34375
4.Tony Romo (used 2011 and 2009, due to injuries in 2010)- 654.021875
5.Matt Ryan- 646.8875
6.Ben Roethlisberger- 630.766667
7.Peyton Manning- 614.6125 (2010 and 2009)
8.Philip Rivers- 496.4375
9.Tim Tebow- 484.192 (Used 11 Game slate X 2)
10.Cam Newton (Last year's numbers multiplied by 2 to account for lack of seasons.) 439.96
11.Eli Manning- 433.059375
This formula reflects my opinion of the top 10 NFL QB's. Obviously Eli being #10 after winning two Superbowls may be strange, but I don't like the number of interceptions he throws, which I feel is the most overlooked stat among NFL QB's. The Giants have also put up average win totals in the regular season. Matt Ryan will keep creeping up the list, he was #5 BEFORE the year was.....oh and to save you some time, the numbers don't lie, Tebow is soooo underrated.
No comments:
Post a Comment