Current Record

RECORD: UP 33 UNITS and overall record of (67-53) 55.8%



Sunday, October 7, 2012

NFL Picks/Betting Preview Week 5

Sorry about the late post, we will post our picks earlier next time. We feel that they're are some really nice lines this week in the NFL, so we will try to be selective, and take advantage of them. To ensure a profit (atleast a high chance of won), we will bet more units on these games we feel we can take advantage of, and bet very small on the games that we feel have less attractive lines. First we will start off with the big ones, and then after, briefly give you our picks for the lesser ones.

Chicago Bears (-5.5) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (+5.5)

I find this line disrespectful to the Bears after last weeks performance against the Cowboys. If Tony Romo threw 5 interceptions against this defense, how many will Blaine Gabbert throw? Also, the warm weather in Jacksonville will be beneficiary for Cutler, and allow the Bears offense to get in a groove, just like they did last week in the dome. Other than Maurice Jones-Drew, the Jaguars offense doesn't really have many weapons that can hurt the Bears. The Bears explosive defense will shutdown MJD, Gabbert, and company, while Jay Cutler and the offense will do their part by blowing this game open. The Jaguars are 31st in passing offense, and 30th in total defense. It's going to be a long day for Jags fans. The Pick: Bears -5.5 for 4 Units.


Atlanta Falcons (-3) vs. Washington Redskins (+3)

Really...I might regret saying this later, but in reality, this is a matchup between an unexperienced rookie-led team and an experienced, Super Bowl caliber Atlanta Falcons team. Matt Ryan has been an elite quarterback this year, and is having field days throwing to a receiving core that includes Roddy White, Julio Jones, and Tony Gonzalez. Yes, the Redskins will put up some points. But will their 31st ranked defense that gives up 326 yards a game be able to keep up with the Falcons aerial attack? Eh..
The Pick: Falcons -3 for 3 units


Green Bay Packers (-7) vs. Indianapolis Colts (+7)

The Packers are not going to take this game lightly, as they know a .500 record isn't going to cut it in their tough NFC North division. The Colts are at the Packer's mercy in this game, as their conservative play-calling style with rookie Andrew Luck at the helm, won't be able to hang with possibly the best offense in the NFL, led by reigning MVP, Aaron Rodgers.  The Pick: Packers -7 for 4 units


Steelers (-3.5) vs. Eagles (+3.5) 

After seeing their division rivals, the Cowboys go down to the Bears last week, the Eagles know that they can really grab the stronghold on their division with a win over the ferocious Steelers. The Steelers are getting Rashard Mendenhall back for this game, and that should help a rushing attack that ranks 30th in the NFL, however he won't see a big workload, so the Steelers offense will continue to struggle. Meanwhile the Eagles have one of the top backs in the game in Lesean McCoy, and they'll use him to plug away at the Steelers defense, which will allow Michael Vick make big plays against the Steelers secondary. The Eagles are too explosive to give up points on this one. The Pick: Eagles +3.5 for 2 units. 


Saints (-3.5) vs. Chargers (+3.5)

The Chargers will be motivated as ever to win this game, as they know this game can effect playoff implications later on this year. Meanwhile, it's going to be tough for the Saints to get motivated for this one, as they're off to an 0-4 start. The Chargers are 3-1, with their only gaffe coming against the Falcons in week 3 where they got thrashed 27 to 3. Other than that, they have played solid football, and should continue to do so on Sunday. Ryan Mathews is fully recovered from a broken clavicle that sidelined him for the 1st two weeks, and is expected to see an increased workload. This is terrible news for a Saints defense that ranks DEAD LAST in defending the rush. If the Chargers get behind, Philip Rivers won't be afraid to air the ball out and get them within this +3.5 line.  The Pick: Chargers +3.5 for 4 UNITS


Giants (-9.5) vs. Browns (+9.5)  

The Browns are off to a 0-4 start, and don't rank higher than 20 in any major category. The Giants are coming off a loss to their division rivals Eagles, and won't be looking to toy around with the lousy Browns in this one. Brandon Weeden gets the award for worst quarterback in the NFL, and the Browns basically gave up on the season when they announced he would be their starter over Colt McCoy.     The Pick: Giants -9.5 for 3 Units.



OTHER PICKS:  (No Beneficiary Lines, so keep Bets Low (1-2 units))

Minnesota Vikings (-5.5) vs. Tennessee Titans (+5.5)    Minnesota's defense is too good for horrendous Titans offense.   The Pick: Minnesota (-5.5) for 1 Unit

Patriots (-6.5) vs. Broncos (+6.5)   Never bet against Peyton....Oh wait. Never bet against Brady. We don't know which Peyton will show up so....The Pick: Patriots -6.5 for 1 unit.

Bengals (-3) vs. Dolphins (+3)    Miami's defense has played well so far, however Cincinatti at home is too good for them. Dalton and the Bengals should cover the spread.   The Pick: Bengals -3 for 2 units

Ravens (-6.5) vs. Chiefs (+6.5)   Jamaal Charles is a beast, and the Chiefs are at home in Arrowhead.   The Pick: Chiefs +6.5 for 1 Unit.

Panthers (-2.5) vs. Seahawks (+2.5)   Big advantage for Carolina being at home, however Seattle's defense is too good.   The Pick: Seahawks +2.5 for 1 Unit.

49ers (-10) vs. Bills (+10)   The Bills will have a tough time running the ball against a San Francisco defense that ranks 3rd in rush defense. The defense will provide some turnovers, and the ground and pound of the 49ers should cover the spread of 10 at home.   The Pick: 49ers -10 for 1 Unit




2 comments:

  1. harvin wrecked, so much for #14

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Harvin's lack to find the end zone in the previous weeks (aside from his return touchdown) led to his lower rankings, he'll be higher this week.

      Delete